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SD · Sudan · –

Keilak fire, 15 November 2021 Keilak

Out · last detection 27 Nov 2021, 00:02 UTC

The fire started on 15 November 2021 in Keilak, Sudan, and satellites saw it burning for 13 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 7,276 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 3th largest in West Kordofan since 2016 (of 101 with a page). Number 12 in Sudan in 2021, of 149.

Burnt area
7,276ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
13days
15 Nov 2021 – 27 Nov 2021
Municipalities hit
1
localities
Started on
15 Nov
2021
Heat detections
170
in a single hotspot: 145 MW
Danger at start
48
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
171MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 15 Nov27 Nov
27 Nov 2021

How it evolved, day by day

15 Nov 2021 · 6 MW · 2 16 Nov 2021 · 25 MW · 6 17 Nov 2021 · 27 MW · 5 18 Nov 2021 · 3 MW · 1 19 Nov 2021 · 4 MW · 1 21 Nov 2021 · 21 MW · 2 22 Nov 2021 · 77 MW · 4 23 Nov 2021 · 1,435 MW · 78 24 Nov 2021 · 314 MW · 50 25 Nov 2021 · 93 MW · 14 26 Nov 2021 · 41 MW · 6 27 Nov 2021 · 2 MW · 1
15 Nov 18 Nov 23 Nov

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

39°high
41km/h · peak gust
9%lowest humidity

It had gone 19 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

98% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 4,063 ha in 2016, 2,078 ha in 2017, 1,456 ha in 2018, 2,545 ha in 2019, 3,457 ha in 2020. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 7,143 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 4.6% of the area of London (73 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Keilak where it started
    7,315 ha reached on 15 Nov
    0.8 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 55 % of the area in Sudan

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
15 Nov 38.9 °C 10 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
16 Nov 37.9 °C 10 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
17 Nov 39.3 °C 11 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
18 Nov 39.2 °C 15 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
19 Nov 39.1 °C 15 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
20 Nov 38.1 °C 13 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
21 Nov 37.6 °C 10 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
22 Nov 37.3 °C 10 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
23 Nov 37.9 °C 10 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
24 Nov 38.2 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
25 Nov 38.4 °C 10 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
26 Nov 38.8 °C 9 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
27 Nov 38.8 °C 15 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
28 Nov after 39.7 °C 17 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
29 Nov after 39.0 °C 17 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
30 Nov after 40.1 °C 13 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
1 Dec after 39.2 °C 15 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
2 Dec after 38.8 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
3 Dec after 38.6 °C 13 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
4 Dec after 39.3 °C 14 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
5 Dec after 39.8 °C 11 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 62
6 Dec after 38.1 °C 11 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
7 Dec after 39.2 °C 12 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 48.2, a minimum humidity of 10% and 19 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 27.

FWI at the start 48.2
Minimum humidity 10 %
Days without rain 19
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Keilak fire, November 2017
2,451 ha 7 days FWI 47.6 Min. humidity 12 % 20 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

8 days
median duration
3,609 ha
median area
15 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.3 mm
rain at the end (median; 1 of 27 had it)

It was 2.0 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 13 days, against 8 days.

Only 6 of its 27 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 26 of 27, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.3 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
41km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 27 Nov, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 1 of 27, with a median of 1.3 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 8 Nov 2021
After · 4 Dec 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 170Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Sudan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Keilak fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 15 November 2021 to 27 November 2021 (13 days). The perimeter dates it from 22 November 2021 to 26 November 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 7,276 hectares (72.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Keilak (7,315 ha, 0.8 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 39.3 °C, humidity dropped to 9 % and gusts hit 41 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 61, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Sudan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 27. Their median duration was 8 days and their median area 3,609 ha; 15 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 6 of its 27 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 26 of 27, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.3 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 26 November 2021 → 27 November 2021.
  2. Start date: 22 November 2021 → 15 November 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 22 November 2021 to 26 November 2021. 170 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.