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ZM · Zambia · –

Rufunsa fire, 11 September 2018 Kafue, Rufunsa, Luangwa

Out · last detection 29 Sept 2018, 23:05 UTC

The fire started on 11 September 2018 in Rufunsa, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 19 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 31,689 hectares from heat detections, spread across 3 municipalities.

It is the largest fire in Lusaka since 2016 (of 52 with a page). Number 4 in Zambia in 2018, of 204.

Burnt area
31,689ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
19days
11 Sept 2018 – 29 Sept 2018
Municipalities hit
3
districts
Started on
11 Sept
2018
Heat detections
1,725
in a single hotspot: 110 MW
Danger at start
48
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
484MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 11 Sept29 Sept
29 Sept 2018

How it evolved, day by day

11 Sept 2018 · 13 MW · 7 12 Sept 2018 · 41 MW · 21 13 Sept 2018 · 244 MW · 48 14 Sept 2018 · 910 MW · 89 15 Sept 2018 · 499 MW · 85 16 Sept 2018 · 584 MW · 147 17 Sept 2018 · 414 MW · 137 18 Sept 2018 · 596 MW · 146 19 Sept 2018 · 646 MW · 145 20 Sept 2018 · 675 MW · 116 21 Sept 2018 · 527 MW · 103 22 Sept 2018 · 344 MW · 93 23 Sept 2018 · 1,208 MW · 195 24 Sept 2018 · 926 MW · 148 25 Sept 2018 · 1,314 MW · 193 26 Sept 2018 · 145 MW · 21 27 Sept 2018 · 70 MW · 21 28 Sept 2018 · 4 MW · 4 29 Sept 2018 · 24 MW · 6
11 Sept 15 Sept 19 Sept 25 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
57km/h · peak gust
16%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

56% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 17,345 ha in 2016, 1,044 ha in 2017.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 20% of the area of London (317 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 25,394 ha
    5.6 %
  2. Rufunsa where it started
    4,877 ha
    0.5 %
  3. 1,997 ha
    0.5 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
11 Sept 27.7 °C 33 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
12 Sept 30.3 °C 24 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
13 Sept 32.2 °C 20 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
14 Sept 33.9 °C 17 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
15 Sept 33.5 °C 19 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
16 Sept 34.1 °C 19 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
17 Sept 34.0 °C 20 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 69
18 Sept 35.2 °C 16 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68
19 Sept 34.7 °C 16 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
20 Sept 33.9 °C 17 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 75
21 Sept 32.5 °C 26 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
22 Sept 31.9 °C 22 % 55 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 76
23 Sept 31.0 °C 22 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 71
24 Sept 31.9 °C 27 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 62
25 Sept 32.9 °C 24 % 57 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 67
26 Sept 34.3 °C 19 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
27 Sept 35.6 °C 22 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68
28 Sept 34.4 °C 23 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68
29 Sept 34.5 °C 19 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 70
30 Sept after 30.3 °C 30 % 69 km/h 0.1 mm Very extreme 79
1 Oct after 27.2 °C 33 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
2 Oct after 29.3 °C 30 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
3 Oct after 32.6 °C 26 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
4 Oct after 33.4 °C 23 % 54 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
5 Oct after 29.7 °C 34 % 55 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
6 Oct after 30.0 °C 30 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
7 Oct after 30.8 °C 22 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
8 Oct after 29.8 °C 17 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
9 Oct after 29.4 °C 24 % 49 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 48.1, a minimum humidity of 33% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 29.

FWI at the start 48.1
Minimum humidity 33 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Hurungwe fire, November 2021
4,087 ha 7 days FWI 48.9 Min. humidity 32 % 63 km away, in 2021

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.0 mm on 15 Nov.

What happened to them

7 days
median duration
1,574 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
1.3 mm
rain at the end (median; 3 of 29 had it)

It was 20.1 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 19 days, against 7 days.

None of its 29 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 26 of 29, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.3 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
57km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 29 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 3 of 29, with a median of 1.3 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 4 Sept 2018
After · 6 Oct 2018

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 1,725Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Rufunsa fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 11 September 2018 to 29 September 2018 (19 days). The perimeter dates it from 13 September 2018 to 29 September 2018.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 31,689 hectares (316.9 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 3 municipalities: Kafue (25,394 ha, 5.6 %); Rufunsa (4,877 ha, 0.5 %); Luangwa (1,997 ha, 0.5 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 35.6 °C, humidity dropped to 16 % and gusts hit 57 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 76, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 29. Their median duration was 7 days and their median area 1,574 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. None of its 29 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 26 of 29, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.3 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 13 September 2018 → 11 September 2018.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 2 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 13 September 2018 to 29 September 2018. 1,725 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.