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ZM · Zambia · –

Rufunsa fire, October 2021 Luangwa, Rufunsa

Out · last detection 17 Nov 2021, 23:38 UTC

The fire started on 13 October 2021 in Rufunsa, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 37 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 15,689 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 4th largest in Lusaka since 2016 (of 52 with a page). Number 16 in Zambia in 2021, of 213.

Burnt area
15,689ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
37days
13 Oct 2021 – 18 Nov 2021
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
13 Oct
2021
Heat detections
618
in a single hotspot: 42 MW
Danger at start
35
High · FWI index
Average daily power
115MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 13 Oct18 Nov
17 Nov 2021

How it evolved, day by day

13 Oct 2021 · 37 MW · 5 17 Oct 2021 · 23 MW · 12 18 Oct 2021 · 39 MW · 6 19 Oct 2021 · 1 MW · 1 20 Oct 2021 · 1 MW · 1 21 Oct 2021 · 17 MW · 6 22 Oct 2021 · 72 MW · 18 23 Oct 2021 · 50 MW · 5 24 Oct 2021 · 12 MW · 4 25 Oct 2021 · 28 MW · 6 26 Oct 2021 · 59 MW · 18 27 Oct 2021 · 47 MW · 14 28 Oct 2021 · 100 MW · 22 29 Oct 2021 · 108 MW · 21 30 Oct 2021 · 139 MW · 34 31 Oct 2021 · 252 MW · 36 1 Nov 2021 · 89 MW · 20 2 Nov 2021 · 16 MW · 6 3 Nov 2021 · 68 MW · 9 4 Nov 2021 · 254 MW · 26 5 Nov 2021 · 153 MW · 28 6 Nov 2021 · 239 MW · 45 7 Nov 2021 · 376 MW · 83 8 Nov 2021 · 708 MW · 110 9 Nov 2021 · 475 MW · 50 10 Nov 2021 · 110 MW · 10 11 Nov 2021 · 33 MW · 10 12 Nov 2021 · 29 MW · 2 15 Nov 2021 · 2 MW · 1 16 Nov 2021 · 24 MW · 7 17 Nov 2021 · 5 MW · 2
13 Oct 23 Oct 30 Oct 8 Nov 15 Nov

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
56km/h · peak gust
19%lowest humidity

It had gone 58 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 2.8 mm on 21 Nov.

This area had burned before

91% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,013 ha in 2016, 2,378 ha in 2017, 9,791 ha in 2018, 5,531 ha in 2019. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 14,354 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 9.9% of the area of London (157 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 8,091 ha
    2.1 %
  2. Rufunsa where it started
    7,712 ha
    0.8 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
13 Oct 29.9 °C 22 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
14 Oct 31.9 °C 27 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
15 Oct 34.3 °C 23 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
16 Oct 35.2 °C 20 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
17 Oct 37.3 °C 21 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
18 Oct 36.1 °C 26 % 54 km/h 1.1 mm Very high 47
19 Oct 25.5 °C 52 % 56 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
20 Oct 25.9 °C 51 % 52 km/h 0.3 mm High 32
21 Oct 26.8 °C 50 % 45 km/h 0.1 mm High 30
22 Oct 33.6 °C 35 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
23 Oct 36.1 °C 25 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
24 Oct 36.6 °C 23 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
25 Oct 33.9 °C 32 % 54 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
26 Oct 32.5 °C 36 % 54 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
27 Oct 32.2 °C 38 % 55 km/h 0.1 mm Very high 46
28 Oct 29.4 °C 41 % 54 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
29 Oct 30.3 °C 36 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
30 Oct 34.6 °C 26 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
31 Oct 35.1 °C 25 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
1 Nov 36.3 °C 28 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
2 Nov 35.2 °C 32 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
3 Nov 36.3 °C 23 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
4 Nov 35.1 °C 32 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
5 Nov 34.8 °C 32 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
6 Nov 36.4 °C 22 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
7 Nov 36.9 °C 19 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
8 Nov 37.5 °C 21 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
9 Nov 38.4 °C 21 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
10 Nov 38.1 °C 21 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
11 Nov 33.9 °C 35 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
12 Nov 34.5 °C 35 % 45 km/h 2.2 mm High 25
13 Nov 32.6 °C 34 % 40 km/h 0.2 mm High 30
14 Nov 31.8 °C 37 % 45 km/h 0.4 mm High 33
15 Nov 33.8 °C 36 % 49 km/h 0.1 mm High 34
16 Nov 33.6 °C 33 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
17 Nov 36.2 °C 23 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
18 Nov 37.6 °C 21 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
19 Nov after 36.5 °C 22 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
20 Nov after 31.7 °C 38 % 44 km/h 0.6 mm High 36
21 Nov after 30.4 °C 46 % 45 km/h 2.8 mm Moderate 13

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 35.4, a minimum humidity of 22% and 58 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 17.

FWI at the start 35.4
Minimum humidity 22 %
Days without rain 58
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Nyimba fire, September 2016
28,105 ha 16 days FWI 33.4 Min. humidity 23 % 139 km away, in 2016

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

6 days
median duration
1,923 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
—
rain at the end (median; 0 of 17 had it)

It was 8.2 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 37 days, against 6 days.

Only 2 of its 17 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

2.8 mmfirst rain
21 Nov3 days after it ended
56km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 18 Nov, and on 21 Nov 2.8 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. None of its 17 twins had rain when they ended.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 6 Oct 2021
After · 25 Nov 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 618Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Rufunsa fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 13 October 2021 to 18 November 2021 (37 days). The perimeter dates it from 20 October 2021 to 12 November 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 15,689 hectares (156.9 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Luangwa (8,091 ha, 2.1 %); Rufunsa (7,712 ha, 0.8 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 38.4 °C, humidity dropped to 19 % and gusts hit 56 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 52, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 17. Their median duration was 6 days and their median area 1,923 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. Only 2 of its 17 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 12 November 2021 → 18 November 2021.
  2. Start date: 20 October 2021 → 13 October 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 20 October 2021 to 12 November 2021. 618 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.