Satellites first detected fire on 28 October 2026 in Clay, United States. It was active for 3 days, with 39 heat detections and an area with fire of about 420 hectares rebuilt from them, spread across a single county.
matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
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Burned area
satellite only
≈ 420ha
Estimated from hotspots: no perimeter has been published yet.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
This is an estimate from the VIIRS pixels that saw fire. It will change when the perimeter is published.
Duration by satellite
satellite only
3days
28 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026: first and last day with fire on the page.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
last detection: 30 Oct 2026, 19:40 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only
28 Oct 2026
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
28 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page, so the alert time and the cause are not known here.
Hotspots
satellite only
39
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 38 MW.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP)
Date
28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only
295MW
Total radiative power on 29 October 2026; hotspots that day: 16.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
Date
29 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model
16.0FWI · moderate
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 17.
Source
WorldFires calculation (Canadian FWI system)
Date
28 Oct 2026, local noon
Model
ECMWF IFS 0,25° · Open-Meteo.com · provisional
+− cross-check
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings ›
Weather during the fire
model
25.4°C · 39% RH
High of 25.4 °C and minimum humidity of 39% on 30 October 2026; gusts of 29 km/h on 30 October 2026.
Source
weather model at the fire’s grid cell
Date
28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
Model
ECMWF IFS 0,25° · Open-Meteo.com · provisional
+− cross-check
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
ⓘThis page’s change log has been kept since 30 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
· reconstructedweather
Weather and FWI computed from the forecast (provisional until ERA5 arrives)
log
Area: ≈ 602 → ≈ 420 ha.
log
Last day with fire: 31 October 2026 → 30 October 2026.
log
Start date: 27 October 2026 → 28 October 2026.
log
Name: Randolph → Clay.
log
Area: ≈ 644 → ≈ 602 ha.
log
Start date: 26 October 2026 → 27 October 2026.
log
Last day with fire: 29 October 2026 → 31 October 2026.
A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
NIFC has not yet published the perimeter of this fire. For now the area is the one rebuilt from heat detections (about 14 hectares per pixel). When the perimeter arrives, this page picks it up on its own and keeps the same address.
Area with fire
≈ 420ha
rebuilt from hotspots, no official perimeter yet
Duration
3days
28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
Counties hit
1
counties
Started on
28 Oct
2026
Heat detections
39
in a single hotspot: 38 MW
Danger at start
16
Moderate · FWI index
Average daily power
240MW
detected power per day, on average
Where it burned
HOTSPOTS BY DAY
28 Oct30 Oct
Play back30 Oct 2026
How it evolved, day by day
28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct
Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.
The weather it burned in
25°high
29km/h · peak gust
32%lowest humidity
It had gone 17 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.3 mm on 1 Nov.
Area with fire inside each county, rebuilt from heat detections (about 14 hectares per VIIRS pixel). An estimate until NIFC publishes the official perimeter. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
The weather day by day
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives
Day
High
Min. humidity
Peak gust
Rain
Danger (FWI)
28 Oct
22.9 °C
32 %
27 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 16
29 Oct
23.8 °C
43 %
24 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 15
30 Oct
25.4 °C
39 %
29 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 18
31 Oct after
22.5 °C
53 %
39 km/h
0.1 mm
Moderate 20
1 Nov after
19.5 °C
67 %
45 km/h
1.3 mm
Low 10
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 16.0, a minimum humidity of 32% and 17 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 9.
FWI at the start16.0
Minimum humidity32 %
Days without rain17
this firechosen twinsrest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
Welcome Home 1 Fire, October 2016
427 ha4 daysFWI 25.0Min. humidity 31 %32 km away, in 2016
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.
Fires in the area that started in similar weather: 9. With fewer than 15 we give no figures: they would be more noise than signal.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How it ended
1.3 mmfirst rain
1 Nov2 days after it ended
29km/h · max. gust
It was considered over on 30 Oct, and on 1 Nov 1.3 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out.
Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives
How a twin is chosen
Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.
↔
Before · 21 Oct 2026
After · 6 Nov 2026
Sentinel-2 did not pass over on that day. Try another date, or use false colour, which is daily.
If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.
The smoke
CAMS · Copernicus
On 29 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 51 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 21: 1.4 times the WHO daily guideline (15).
PM2.5 peak51µg/m³
Days over the guideline1day
PM1053µg/m³
Optical depth0.29
WHO 15
24 Oct26 Oct28 Oct
GoodFairModeratePoorVery poorExtremely poor
Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
Detections table· 39Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.›
⬇ Download CSVTimes in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
According to the heat detections seen by satellite, it burned from 28 October 2026 to 30 October 2026 (3 days between the first and the last detection). There is no perimeter yet to date it.
How much area did it burn?
There is no official perimeter yet: NIFC has not published it. Heat detections rebuild about 420 hectares with fire (4.2 km²).
Which counties burned?
The fire only entered Clay (420 ha, 0.3 %).
Is the Clay fire still active?
No fire detections since 30 Oct 2026, 19:40 UTC. A lack of detections is not an official extinction.
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 25.4 °C, humidity dropped to 32 % and gusts hit 29 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 18, class Moderate.
Where does this data come from?
From the official burnt perimeter of United States agencies (MTBS / NIFC, public domain), NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of United States. It is not an official report.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
⚑Report an errorHow we know this›
No perimeter yet: the area (≈ 420 ha) is estimated by counting VIIRS pixels with fire, about 14 ha each.
Dates of the first and last VIIRS detection of the cluster. 39 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
Weather: ECMWF IFS model, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives.
The perimeter is official and in the public domain. For past years it comes from MTBS (Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity), run by the U.S. Geological Survey and the USDA Forest Service, which map it on Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. For the current and last year it comes from WFIGS at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC): incident perimeters mapped by fire crews, aircraft and imagery. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. County boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per county is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ slightly from official figures.