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BR · Brazil · –

Natividade fire, September 2023 Natividade

Out · last detection 23 Sept 2023, 04:03 UTC

The fire started on 5 September 2023 in Natividade, Brazil, and satellites saw it burning for 19 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 10,420 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 168th largest in Tocantins since 2016 (of 1036 with a page). Number 49 in Brazil in 2023, of 430.

Burnt area
10,420ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
19days
5 Sept 2023 – 23 Sept 2023
Municipalities hit
1
municipalities
Started on
5 Sept
2023
Heat detections
317
in a single hotspot: 107 MW
Danger at start
40
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
181MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 5 Sept23 Sept
23 Sept 2023

How it evolved, day by day

5 Sept 2023 · 119 MW · 5 6 Sept 2023 · 2 MW · 1 7 Sept 2023 · 67 MW · 18 8 Sept 2023 · 41 MW · 6 9 Sept 2023 · 81 MW · 9 10 Sept 2023 · 64 MW · 16 11 Sept 2023 · 504 MW · 49 12 Sept 2023 · 517 MW · 86 13 Sept 2023 · 530 MW · 29 14 Sept 2023 · 434 MW · 53 15 Sept 2023 · 211 MW · 19 16 Sept 2023 · 110 MW · 19 17 Sept 2023 · 11 MW · 2 20 Sept 2023 · 15 MW · 2 23 Sept 2023 · 8 MW · 3
5 Sept 8 Sept 13 Sept 17 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
44km/h · peak gust
20%lowest humidity

It had gone 5 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.5 mm on 28 Sept.

This area had burned before

85% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 2,993 ha in 2016, 4,796 ha in 2018, 3,265 ha in 2020, 4,379 ha in 2021, 116 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 8,851 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 6.6% of the area of London (104 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Natividade 8,754 inhabitants where it started
    10,486 ha reached on 5 Sept
    3.2 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area0.82 ha
Residents≈ 50

Inside the perimeter there were about 0.82 hectares of built-up land and about 50 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
5 Sept 35.9 °C 26 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
6 Sept 34.6 °C 29 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
7 Sept 34.0 °C 27 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
8 Sept 33.1 °C 29 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
9 Sept 34.4 °C 23 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
10 Sept 34.7 °C 22 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
11 Sept 35.0 °C 25 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
12 Sept 34.9 °C 29 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
13 Sept 36.1 °C 23 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
14 Sept 36.3 °C 23 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
15 Sept 36.7 °C 24 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
16 Sept 36.2 °C 24 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
17 Sept 34.9 °C 28 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
18 Sept 35.9 °C 21 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
19 Sept 36.0 °C 23 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
20 Sept 36.1 °C 25 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
21 Sept 35.5 °C 25 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
22 Sept 35.7 °C 25 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
23 Sept 37.5 °C 20 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
24 Sept after 37.3 °C 22 % 18 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
25 Sept after 36.6 °C 30 % 21 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
26 Sept after 36.7 °C 33 % 22 km/h 0.1 mm Very high 42
27 Sept after 33.8 °C 45 % 20 km/h 0.9 mm High 33
28 Sept after 32.4 °C 48 % 23 km/h 1.5 mm Low 7

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 40.3, a minimum humidity of 26% and 5 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 25.

FWI at the start 40.3
Minimum humidity 26 %
Days without rain 5
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Arraias fire, October 2019
12,392 ha 12 days FWI 40.3 Min. humidity 28 % 119 km away, in 2019

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 7.6 mm on 22 Oct.

What happened to them

12 days
median duration
8,113 ha
median area
36 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.5 mm
rain at the end (median; 16 of 25 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (10,420 ha against a median of 8,113 ha) and lasted 19 days, against 12 days.

In 9 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.5 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.5 mmfirst rain
28 Sept5 days after it ended
44km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 23 Sept, and on 28 Sept 1.5 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 16 of 25, with a median of 2.5 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 29 Aug 2023
After · 30 Sept 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 13 September 2023 the air beside the fire reached 35 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 18: 1.2 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak35 µg/m³
Days over the guideline1 day
PM1050 µg/m³
Optical depth0.47
3 Sept7 Sept11 Sept15 Sept19 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 317Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Brazil

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Natividade fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 5 September 2023 to 23 September 2023 (19 days). The perimeter dates it from 5 September 2023 to 16 September 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 10,420 hectares (104.2 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Natividade (10,486 ha, 3.2 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 37.5 °C, humidity dropped to 20 % and gusts hit 44 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 59, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Brazil (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 25. Their median duration was 12 days and their median area 8,113 ha; 36 % went past 10,000 ha. In 9 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.5 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 193 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 16 September 2023 → 23 September 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 193.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 5 September 2023 to 16 September 2023. 317 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.