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SS · South Sudan · –

Nagero fire, 3 January 2025 Nagero

Out · last detection 25 Jan 2025, 11:50 UTC

The fire started on 3 January 2025 in Nagero, South Sudan, and satellites saw it burning for 22 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 23,806 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 37th largest in Western Equatoria since 2016 (of 299 with a page). Number 3 in South Sudan in 2025, of 57.

Compare with…
Burnt area
23,806ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
22days
3 Jan 2025 – 24 Jan 2025
Municipalities hit
1
counties
Started on
3 Jan
2025
Heat detections
1,094
in a single hotspot: 161 MW
Danger at start
50
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
749MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 3 Jan24 Jan
25 Jan 2025

How it evolved, day by day

3 Jan 2025 · 617 MW · 18 4 Jan 2025 · 173 MW · 15 5 Jan 2025 · 9 MW · 2 6 Jan 2025 · 54 MW · 6 7 Jan 2025 · 575 MW · 37 8 Jan 2025 · 2,922 MW · 167 9 Jan 2025 · 2,190 MW · 90 10 Jan 2025 · 1,700 MW · 91 11 Jan 2025 · 406 MW · 113 12 Jan 2025 · 4,287 MW · 231 13 Jan 2025 · 415 MW · 71 14 Jan 2025 · 282 MW · 51 15 Jan 2025 · 435 MW · 67 16 Jan 2025 · 1,095 MW · 65 17 Jan 2025 · 139 MW · 42 18 Jan 2025 · 235 MW · 10 20 Jan 2025 · 6 MW · 2 22 Jan 2025 · 9 MW · 2 23 Jan 2025 · 113 MW · 9 24 Jan 2025 · 8 MW · 3 25 Jan 2025 · 53 MW · 2
3 Jan 8 Jan 12 Jan 18 Jan 25 Jan

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
39km/h · peak gust
11%lowest humidity

It had gone 47 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

86% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 11,036 ha in 2016, 7,064 ha in 2017, 2,853 ha in 2018, 6,288 ha in 2019, 6,537 ha in 2020, 4,641 ha in 2021, 2,604 ha in 2022, 535 ha in 2023, 3,208 ha in 2024. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 20,457 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 15% of the area of London (238 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Nagero where it started
    23,961 ha reached on 3 Jan
    2.6 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 33 % of the area in South Sudan

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
3 Jan 35.9 °C 14 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
4 Jan 37.5 °C 14 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
5 Jan 38.0 °C 13 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
6 Jan 37.0 °C 13 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
7 Jan 35.3 °C 11 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
8 Jan 36.1 °C 12 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
9 Jan 36.3 °C 11 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
10 Jan 36.9 °C 11 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
11 Jan 35.7 °C 13 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
12 Jan 34.2 °C 14 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
13 Jan 34.7 °C 12 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
14 Jan 36.0 °C 12 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
15 Jan 37.1 °C 12 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
16 Jan 37.1 °C 14 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
17 Jan 38.0 °C 17 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
18 Jan 38.5 °C 15 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
19 Jan 38.0 °C 15 % 22 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
20 Jan 36.7 °C 18 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
21 Jan 35.7 °C 21 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
22 Jan 37.7 °C 13 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
23 Jan 37.2 °C 12 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
24 Jan 36.3 °C 12 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
25 Jan after 35.9 °C 10 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
26 Jan after 36.3 °C 8 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
27 Jan after 36.0 °C 9 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
28 Jan after 35.7 °C 10 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
29 Jan after 35.1 °C 10 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
30 Jan after 35.5 °C 10 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
31 Jan after 35.1 °C 10 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
1 Feb after 36.0 °C 11 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
2 Feb after 37.8 °C 11 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
3 Feb after 38.5 °C 12 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 49.8, a minimum humidity of 14% and 47 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 75.

FWI at the start 49.8
Minimum humidity 14 %
Days without rain 47
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Nagero fire, December 2020
6,254 ha 10 days FWI 49.4 Min. humidity 14 % 98 km away, in 2020

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

12 days
median duration
7,292 ha
median area
23 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.1 mm
rain at the end (median; 3 of 75 had it)

It was 3.3 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 22 days, against 12 days.

Only 6 of its 75 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 72 of 75, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.1 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
39km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 24 Jan, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 3 of 75, with a median of 1.1 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 27 Dec 2024
After · 31 Jan 2025

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 18 January 2025 the air beside the fire reached 81 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 48: 3.2 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak81 µg/m³
Days over the guideline17 days
PM1084 µg/m³
Optical depth1.25
6 Jan10 Jan14 Jan18 Jan22 Jan
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 1,094Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Sudan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Nagero fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 3 January 2025 to 24 January 2025 (22 days). The perimeter dates it from 8 January 2025 to 19 January 2025.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 23,806 hectares (238.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Nagero (23,961 ha, 2.6 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 38.5 °C, humidity dropped to 11 % and gusts hit 39 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 56, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Sudan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 75. Their median duration was 12 days and their median area 7,292 ha; 23 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 6 of its 75 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 72 of 75, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.1 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 19 January 2025 → 24 January 2025.
  2. Start date: 8 January 2025 → 3 January 2025.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 8 January 2025 to 19 January 2025. 1,094 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.