Skip to content
worldfires
SS · South Sudan · –

Nagero fire, 20 December 2019 Nagero

Out · last detection 31 Dec 2019, 23:11 UTC

The fire started on 20 December 2019 in Nagero, South Sudan, and satellites saw it burning for 11 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 6,213 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 212th largest in Western Equatoria since 2016 (of 299 with a page). Number 115 in South Sudan in 2019, of 150.

Compare with…
Burnt area
6,213ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
11days
20 Dec 2019 – 30 Dec 2019
Municipalities hit
1
counties
Started on
20 Dec
2019
Heat detections
182
in a single hotspot: 182 MW
Danger at start
37
High · FWI index
Average daily power
265MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 20 Dec30 Dec
31 Dec 2019

How it evolved, day by day

20 Dec 2019 · 81 MW · 8 21 Dec 2019 · 302 MW · 16 22 Dec 2019 · 238 MW · 25 23 Dec 2019 · 120 MW · 4 24 Dec 2019 · 2,010 MW · 81 25 Dec 2019 · 120 MW · 11 26 Dec 2019 · 25 MW · 8 27 Dec 2019 · 21 MW · 3 28 Dec 2019 · 222 MW · 12 29 Dec 2019 · 21 MW · 10 30 Dec 2019 · 19 MW · 2 31 Dec 2019 · 2 MW · 2
20 Dec 24 Dec 29 Dec

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
37km/h · peak gust
10%lowest humidity

It had gone 23 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

84% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 6,458 ha in 2016, 2,632 ha in 2017, 1,210 ha in 2018. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 5,208 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 3.9% of the area of London (62 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Nagero where it started
    6,255 ha reached on 20 Dec
    0.7 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
20 Dec 34.9 °C 20 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
21 Dec 35.2 °C 21 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
22 Dec 35.6 °C 20 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
23 Dec 36.3 °C 17 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
24 Dec 35.6 °C 23 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
25 Dec 36.4 °C 17 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
26 Dec 35.2 °C 12 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
27 Dec 34.6 °C 10 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
28 Dec 33.7 °C 10 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
29 Dec 34.7 °C 10 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
30 Dec 36.1 °C 10 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
31 Dec after 35.9 °C 14 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
1 Jan after 36.4 °C 17 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
2 Jan after 37.7 °C 17 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
3 Jan after 37.5 °C 17 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
4 Jan after 35.2 °C 16 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
5 Jan after 33.0 °C 16 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
6 Jan after 34.3 °C 15 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
7 Jan after 34.9 °C 16 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
8 Jan after 35.8 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
9 Jan after 34.5 °C 12 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 37.1, a minimum humidity of 20% and 23 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 29.

FWI at the start 37.1
Minimum humidity 20 %
Days without rain 23
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Nagero fire, December 2017
9,085 ha 19 days FWI 36.1 Min. humidity 19 % 6 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

16 days
median duration
7,502 ha
median area
38 %
went past 10,000 ha
—
rain at the end (median; 0 of 29 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (6,213 ha against a median of 7,502 ha) and lasted 11 days, against 16 days.

In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
37km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 30 Dec, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. None of its 29 twins had rain when they ended.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 13 Dec 2019
After · 6 Jan 2020

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 182Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Sudan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Nagero fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 20 December 2019 to 30 December 2019 (11 days). The perimeter dates it from 21 December 2019 to 28 December 2019.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 6,213 hectares (62.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Nagero (6,255 ha, 0.7 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 36.4 °C, humidity dropped to 10 % and gusts hit 37 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 50, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Sudan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 29. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 7,502 ha; 38 % went past 10,000 ha. In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 28 December 2019 → 30 December 2019.
  2. Start date: 21 December 2019 → 20 December 2019.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 21 December 2019 to 28 December 2019. 182 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.