Leonardo Bravo fire, April 2021
Chilpancingo de los Bravo, Leonardo Bravo, Eduardo Neri
Out · last detection 4 May 2021, 19:17 UTC
The fire started on 7 April 2021 in Leonardo Bravo, Mexico, and satellites saw it burning for 28 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 15,921 hectares from heat detections, spread across 3 municipalities.
It is the 15th largest in Guerrero since 2016 (of 582 with a page). Number 3 in Mexico in 2021, of 294.
matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
When copying, the sentence is
Tick the figures you want: they make up the lede and the CSV.
Burned area
with caveats
15,921ha
Union of 3 GWIS (Copernicus) perimeters: overlapping areas count once.
This page15,921CONAFOR6,873
Source
GWIS (Copernicus)
Date
7 Apr 2021 – 4 May 2021
+− cross-check
CONAFOR: 6,873 ha (matched records: 10). Difference between the page and the official record: +131.7%. Matched on 1 November 2026. The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
Duration by satellite
satellite only
28days
7 Apr 2021 to 4 May 2021: first and last day with fire on the page.
Source
GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
last detection: 4 May 2021, 19:17 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only
7 Apr 2021
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
Source
GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
7 Apr 2021
+− cross-check
The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
Hotspots
satellite only
865
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 185 MW.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP)
Date
7 Apr 2021 – 4 May 2021
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only
945MW
Total radiative power on 19 April 2021; hotspots that day: 88.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
Date
19 Apr 2021
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model
11.3FWI · moderate
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 0.
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings ›
Weather during the fire
model
25.5°C · 26% RH
High of 25.5 °C and minimum humidity of 26% on 26 April 2021; gusts of 48 km/h on 19 April 2021.
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
Living inside
model
≈ 650people
Estimated residents inside the perimeter and 4.6 ha of built-up area (100 m grid, epoch 2020).
Source
GHSL R2023A · JRC
Date
calculated on 24 October 2026
+− cross-check
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.
ⓘThis page’s change log has been kept since 24 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
log
Area: 16,614 → 15,921 ha.
· reconstructedofficial
Matched with the official CONAFOR record
Nearby records with very different figures: 6,873 ha (records: 10).
A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.
The weather it burned in
26°high
48km/h · peak gust
13%lowest humidity
It had gone 0 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 13.9 mm on 6 May.
This area had burned before
82% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 197 ha in 2016, 8,350 ha in 2017, 11,672 ha in 2019, 135 ha in 2020. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 13,111 ha that had burned before.
Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
People and buildings inside the perimeter
GHSL 2020
Built-up area4.6ha
Residents≈ 650
Inside the perimeter there were about 4.6 hectares of built-up land and about 650 residents (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.
According to CONAFOR, 10 fires started inside this perimeter on these dates, totalling 6,873 ha (the satellite measured 15,921 ha). The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
CONAFOR records each fire that started at a different time or place separately; the satellite sees a single burned area, so this page groups them together. The numbers on the map show where each one started.
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
Day
High
Min. humidity
Peak gust
Rain
Danger (FWI)
7 Apr
22.8 °C
27 %
31 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 11
8 Apr
22.7 °C
29 %
39 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 16
9 Apr
22.4 °C
35 %
41 km/h
1.6 mm
Low 8
10 Apr
24.6 °C
26 %
40 km/h
0.2 mm
Moderate 16
11 Apr
24.8 °C
29 %
38 km/h
0.4 mm
Moderate 19
12 Apr
23.0 °C
36 %
39 km/h
0.6 mm
Moderate 16
13 Apr
24.5 °C
31 %
44 km/h
1.1 mm
Moderate 14
14 Apr
23.4 °C
22 %
45 km/h
0.3 mm
High 22
15 Apr
24.9 °C
23 %
38 km/h
0.6 mm
High 22
16 Apr
25.1 °C
16 %
38 km/h
0.0 mm
High 27
17 Apr
24.3 °C
29 %
45 km/h
0.2 mm
High 26
18 Apr
23.0 °C
25 %
45 km/h
0.0 mm
High 27
19 Apr
22.9 °C
13 %
48 km/h
0.0 mm
High 31
20 Apr
24.0 °C
14 %
42 km/h
0.0 mm
High 31
21 Apr
24.0 °C
21 %
40 km/h
0.0 mm
High 31
22 Apr
24.2 °C
21 %
37 km/h
0.0 mm
High 30
23 Apr
23.6 °C
30 %
41 km/h
0.8 mm
Moderate 20
24 Apr
23.9 °C
32 %
42 km/h
0.2 mm
Moderate 21
25 Apr
24.6 °C
29 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
High 24
26 Apr
25.5 °C
26 %
44 km/h
0.2 mm
High 26
27 Apr
25.4 °C
27 %
41 km/h
0.0 mm
High 25
28 Apr
24.5 °C
30 %
40 km/h
0.5 mm
High 26
29 Apr
23.6 °C
32 %
41 km/h
0.6 mm
High 23
30 Apr
21.7 °C
39 %
37 km/h
2.1 mm
Low 7
1 May
21.8 °C
37 %
37 km/h
5.3 mm
Very low 3
2 May
22.3 °C
38 %
38 km/h
0.5 mm
Low 8
3 May
21.6 °C
36 %
41 km/h
0.2 mm
Moderate 14
4 May
23.0 °C
32 %
41 km/h
0.4 mm
Moderate 18
5 May after
23.6 °C
25 %
46 km/h
0.2 mm
High 24
6 May after
22.3 °C
43 %
38 km/h
13.9 mm
Very low 1
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 11.3, a minimum humidity of 27% and rain the day before. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 16.
FWI at the start11.3
Minimum humidity27 %
Days without rain0
this firechosen twinsrest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
This fire · Leonardo Bravo fire, April 2021
15,921 ha28 daysFWI 11.3Min. humidity 27 %
San Miguel Totolapan fire, May 2017
1,853 ha7 daysFWI 9.6Min. humidity 27 %82 km away, in 2017
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 10.1 mm on 25 May.
It was 6.9 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 28 days, against 11 days.
None of its 16 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 2.2 mm.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How it ended
13.9 mmfirst rain
6 May2 days after it ended
48km/h · max. gust
It was considered over on 4 May, and on 6 May 13.9 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 16 of 16, with a median of 2.2 mm.
Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
How a twin is chosen
Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 7 April 2021 to 4 May 2021 (28 days). The perimeter dates it from 8 April 2021 to 27 April 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 15,921 hectares (159.2 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 3 municipalities: Chilpancingo de los Bravo (11,132 ha, 5.1 %); Leonardo Bravo (4,085 ha, 5.6 %); Eduardo Neri (1,495 ha, 1.2 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 25.5 °C, humidity dropped to 13 % and gusts hit 48 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 31, class High.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mexico (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 16. Their median duration was 11 days and their median area 2,298 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. None of its 16 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 2.2 mm.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
⚑Report an errorHow we know this›
Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 3 polygons grouped in this page.
Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 8 April 2021 to 27 April 2021. 865 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
Compared with CONAFOR: 6,873 official ha against 15,921 ha of perimeter; similar, but with reservations.
Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.
The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.