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ZM · Zambia · –

Kanchibiya fire, 24 August 2021 Kanchibiya, Mpika

Out · last detection 15 Sept 2021, 12:10 UTC

The fire started on 24 August 2021 in Kanchibiya, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 23 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 42,185 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 7th largest in Muchinga since 2016 (of 386 with a page). Number 3 in Zambia in 2021, of 213.

Burnt area
42,185ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
23days
24 Aug 2021 – 15 Sept 2021
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
24 Aug
2021
Heat detections
2,203
in a single hotspot: 175 MW
Danger at start
45
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
1.4GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 24 Aug15 Sept
15 Sept 2021

How it evolved, day by day

24 Aug 2021 · 26 MW · 5 25 Aug 2021 · 137 MW · 17 26 Aug 2021 · 325 MW · 32 27 Aug 2021 · 465 MW · 33 28 Aug 2021 · 767 MW · 42 29 Aug 2021 · 347 MW · 52 30 Aug 2021 · 2,698 MW · 97 31 Aug 2021 · 1,106 MW · 96 1 Sept 2021 · 1,807 MW · 160 2 Sept 2021 · 3,538 MW · 271 3 Sept 2021 · 2,888 MW · 197 4 Sept 2021 · 3,631 MW · 271 5 Sept 2021 · 6,447 MW · 428 6 Sept 2021 · 3,451 MW · 274 7 Sept 2021 · 540 MW · 92 8 Sept 2021 · 217 MW · 32 9 Sept 2021 · 843 MW · 41 10 Sept 2021 · 199 MW · 13 12 Sept 2021 · 86 MW · 13 13 Sept 2021 · 70 MW · 14 14 Sept 2021 · 43 MW · 7 15 Sept 2021 · 155 MW · 16
24 Aug 29 Aug 5 Sept 14 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

32°high
60km/h · peak gust
18%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

84% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 16,837 ha in 2016, 12,204 ha in 2017, 15,548 ha in 2018, 14,411 ha in 2019, 16,790 ha in 2020. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 35,290 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 27% of the area of London (422 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Kanchibiya where it started
    42,469 ha reached on 24 Aug
    4.8 %
  2. 7 ha reached on 25 Aug
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area21 ha
Residents≈ 3,200

Inside the perimeter there were about 21 hectares of built-up land and about 3,200 residents (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
24 Aug 28.8 °C 31 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
25 Aug 29.9 °C 26 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
26 Aug 29.4 °C 22 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
27 Aug 28.8 °C 30 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
28 Aug 31.5 °C 19 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
29 Aug 31.4 °C 18 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 63
30 Aug 28.7 °C 27 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
31 Aug 30.0 °C 18 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
1 Sept 29.7 °C 22 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
2 Sept 30.2 °C 21 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
3 Sept 30.1 °C 23 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
4 Sept 30.2 °C 23 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
5 Sept 29.8 °C 21 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
6 Sept 29.9 °C 22 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
7 Sept 31.1 °C 23 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
8 Sept 31.2 °C 25 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
9 Sept 30.1 °C 22 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
10 Sept 27.8 °C 26 % 60 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72
11 Sept 23.4 °C 41 % 55 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
12 Sept 28.6 °C 27 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
13 Sept 30.9 °C 26 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
14 Sept 32.0 °C 25 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
15 Sept 32.0 °C 22 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
16 Sept after 33.4 °C 21 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
17 Sept after 34.1 °C 20 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
18 Sept after 31.2 °C 25 % 55 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 78
19 Sept after 29.6 °C 28 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
20 Sept after 31.1 °C 23 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
21 Sept after 34.1 °C 15 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
22 Sept after 29.9 °C 24 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 76
23 Sept after 29.0 °C 29 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 67
24 Sept after 30.8 °C 22 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
25 Sept after 31.1 °C 20 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 45.1, a minimum humidity of 31% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 48.

FWI at the start 45.1
Minimum humidity 31 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Kanchibiya fire, August 2019
5,886 ha 13 days FWI 49.3 Min. humidity 31 % 1 km away, in 2019

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

16 days
median duration
3,977 ha
median area
15 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.9 mm
rain at the end (median; 9 of 48 had it)

It was 10.6 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 23 days, against 16 days.

Only 2 of its 48 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 39 of 48, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.9 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
60km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 9 of 48, with a median of 1.9 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 17 Aug 2021
After · 22 Sept 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 2,203Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Kanchibiya fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 24 August 2021 to 15 September 2021 (23 days). The perimeter dates it from 27 August 2021 to 8 September 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 42,185 hectares (421.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Kanchibiya (42,469 ha, 4.8 %); Mpika (7 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 32.0 °C, humidity dropped to 18 % and gusts hit 60 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 72, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 48. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 3,977 ha; 15 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 2 of its 48 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 39 of 48, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.9 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 8 September 2021 → 15 September 2021.
  2. Start date: 27 August 2021 → 24 August 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 3 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 27 August 2021 to 8 September 2021. 2,203 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.