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KE · Kenya · –

Isiolo North fire, 5 February 2021 Isiolo North, Isiolo South

Out · last detection 11 Feb 2021, 11:22 UTC

The fire started on 5 February 2021 in Isiolo North, Kenya, and satellites saw it burning for 7 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 1,375 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 18th largest in Isiolo since 2016 (of 26 with a page). Number 34 in Kenya in 2021, of 55.

Burnt area
1,375ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
7days
5 Feb 2021 – 11 Feb 2021
Municipalities hit
2
constituencies
Started on
5 Feb
2021
Heat detections
48
in a single hotspot: 52 MW
Danger at start
42
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
142MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 5 Feb11 Feb
11 Feb 2021

How it evolved, day by day

9 Feb 2021 · 76 MW · 16 10 Feb 2021 · 337 MW · 29 11 Feb 2021 · 11 MW · 3
9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
38km/h · peak gust
27%lowest humidity

It had gone 34 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

86% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 377 ha in 2016, 1,171 ha in 2019. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 1,178 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 0.9% of the area of London (14 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Isiolo North where it started
    1,098 ha reached on 9 Feb
    0.1 %
  2. 287 ha reached on 9 Feb
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
5 Feb 35.7 °C 34 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
6 Feb 36.0 °C 31 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
7 Feb 35.7 °C 37 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
8 Feb 34.0 °C 39 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
9 Feb 34.8 °C 34 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
10 Feb 36.1 °C 30 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
11 Feb 36.3 °C 27 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
12 Feb after 36.7 °C 33 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
13 Feb after 36.9 °C 31 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
14 Feb after 36.7 °C 32 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
15 Feb after 36.4 °C 30 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
16 Feb after 36.2 °C 32 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
17 Feb after 35.2 °C 36 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
18 Feb after 35.9 °C 33 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
19 Feb after 36.6 °C 35 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
20 Feb after 36.3 °C 36 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
21 Feb after 35.7 °C 36 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 41.8, a minimum humidity of 34% and 34 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 23.

FWI at the start 41.8
Minimum humidity 34 %
Days without rain 34
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Isiolo South fire, May 2019
1,280 ha 3 days FWI 40.7 Min. humidity 35 % 35 km away, in 2019

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

4 days
median duration
2,074 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
2.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 7 of 23 had it)

It stayed below its twins: 1,375 ha against a median of 2,074 ha. It lasted 7 days, against 4 days.

In 16 of 23, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
38km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 11 Feb, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 7 of 23, with a median of 2.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 29 Jan 2021
After · 18 Feb 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 48Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Kenya

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Isiolo North fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 5 February 2021 to 11 February 2021 (7 days). The perimeter dates it from 9 February 2021 to 11 February 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 1,375 hectares (13.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Isiolo North (1,098 ha, 0.1 %); Isiolo South (287 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 36.3 °C, humidity dropped to 27 % and gusts hit 38 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 44, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Kenya (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 23. Their median duration was 4 days and their median area 2,074 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. In 16 of 23, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 999 · 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 9 February 2021 → 5 February 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 999 · 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 9 February 2021 to 11 February 2021. 48 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.