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BW · Botswana · –

Tshabong fire, 2 September 2021 Tshabong, Gemsbok

Out · last detection 15 Sept 2021, 12:07 UTC

The fire started on 2 September 2021 in Tshabong, Botswana, and satellites saw it burning for 13 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 36,582 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 10th largest in Kgalagadi since 2016 (of 379 with a page). Number 11 in Botswana in 2021, of 406.

Burnt area
36,582ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
13days
2 Sept 2021 – 14 Sept 2021
Municipalities hit
2
subdistricts
Started on
2 Sept
2021
Heat detections
1,543
in a single hotspot: 160 MW
Danger at start
74
Very extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
824MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 2 Sept14 Sept
15 Sept 2021

How it evolved, day by day

3 Sept 2021 · 1,758 MW · 505 4 Sept 2021 · 601 MW · 148 5 Sept 2021 · 74 MW · 25 6 Sept 2021 · 240 MW · 43 7 Sept 2021 · 758 MW · 96 8 Sept 2021 · 2,077 MW · 148 9 Sept 2021 · 2,608 MW · 263 10 Sept 2021 · 570 MW · 78 11 Sept 2021 · 178 MW · 35 12 Sept 2021 · 794 MW · 78 13 Sept 2021 · 722 MW · 78 14 Sept 2021 · 319 MW · 43 15 Sept 2021 · 13 MW · 3
3 Sept 6 Sept 9 Sept 12 Sept 15 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

34°high
60km/h · peak gust
4%lowest humidity

It had gone 7 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 23% of the area of London (366 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Tshabong where it started
    36,753 ha
    1.1 %
  2. 125 ha
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Extreme FWI: 81 % of the area in Botswana Very dry air: 63 % of the area in Botswana

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
2 Sept 32.9 °C 4 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
3 Sept 28.3 °C 14 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
4 Sept 28.3 °C 12 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
5 Sept 28.6 °C 13 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
6 Sept 23.8 °C 17 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 78
7 Sept 23.1 °C 9 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
8 Sept 26.5 °C 7 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
9 Sept 31.9 °C 17 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 84
10 Sept 31.6 °C 23 % 60 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 99
11 Sept 30.8 °C 8 % 54 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 110
12 Sept 31.2 °C 8 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 106
13 Sept 33.5 °C 11 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 100
14 Sept 31.5 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
15 Sept after 24.1 °C 16 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
16 Sept after 22.5 °C 12 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 81
17 Sept after 24.9 °C 8 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
18 Sept after 32.5 °C 10 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 107
19 Sept after 32.5 °C 13 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 85
20 Sept after 24.0 °C 15 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 76
21 Sept after 26.8 °C 6 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 69
22 Sept after 31.4 °C 10 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 83
23 Sept after 33.3 °C 14 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 94
24 Sept after 33.0 °C 13 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 74.1, a minimum humidity of 4% and 7 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2017: 23.

FWI at the start 74.1
Minimum humidity 4 %
Days without rain 7
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Gemsbok fire, October 2017
6,870 ha 8 days FWI 75.7 Min. humidity 7 % 45 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

4 days
median duration
4,383 ha
median area
13 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 17 of 23 had it)

It was 8.3 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 13 days, against 4 days.

None of its 23 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 6 of 23, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
60km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 14 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 17 of 23, with a median of 2.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2017.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 26 Aug 2021
After · 21 Sept 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 1,543Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Botswana

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Tshabong fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 2 September 2021 and 14 September 2021: 13 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 36,582 hectares (365.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Tshabong (36,753 ha, 1.1 %); Gemsbok (125 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 33.5 °C, humidity dropped to 4 % and gusts hit 60 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 110, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Botswana (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2017 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 23. Their median duration was 4 days and their median area 4,383 ha; 13 % went past 10,000 ha. None of its 23 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 6 of 23, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 2 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 1,543 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.