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PG · Papua New Guinea · –

South Fly District fire, 4 October 2018 South Fly District

Out · last detection 10 Oct 2018, 03:25 UTC

The fire started on 4 October 2018 in South Fly District, Papua New Guinea, and satellites saw it burning for 7 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 3,539 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 13th largest in Western Province since 2016 (of 31 with a page). Number 8 in Papua New Guinea in 2018, of 19.

Burnt area
3,539ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
7days
4 Oct 2018 – 10 Oct 2018
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
4 Oct
2018
Heat detections
121
in a single hotspot: 182 MW
Danger at start
26
High · FWI index
Average daily power
468MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 4 Oct10 Oct
10 Oct 2018

How it evolved, day by day

4 Oct 2018 · 7 MW · 1 5 Oct 2018 · 417 MW · 28 6 Oct 2018 · 79 MW · 10 7 Oct 2018 · 2,149 MW · 45 8 Oct 2018 · 418 MW · 18 9 Oct 2018 · 197 MW · 17 10 Oct 2018 · 10 MW · 2
4 Oct 7 Oct 10 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

34°high
41km/h · peak gust
27%lowest humidity

It had gone 17 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 5.7 mm on 15 Oct.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 2.2% of the area of London (35 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. South Fly District where it started
    3,562 ha reached on 4 Oct
    0.1 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
4 Oct 31.9 °C 42 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
5 Oct 33.4 °C 27 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
6 Oct 33.0 °C 30 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
7 Oct 33.6 °C 30 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
8 Oct 33.3 °C 28 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
9 Oct 32.7 °C 30 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
10 Oct 33.9 °C 34 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
11 Oct after 32.0 °C 47 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
12 Oct after 33.4 °C 43 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
13 Oct after 33.2 °C 48 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
14 Oct after 33.9 °C 46 % 33 km/h 0.1 mm High 24
15 Oct after 33.6 °C 51 % 28 km/h 5.7 mm High 25

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 25.6, a minimum humidity of 42% and 17 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2018: 4.

FWI at the start 25.6
Minimum humidity 42 %
Days without rain 17
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

South Fly District fire, October 2018
5,200 ha 9 days FWI 28.3 Min. humidity 37 % 48 km away, in 2018

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 23.8 mm on 30 Oct.

What happened to them

Fires in the area that started in similar weather: 4. With fewer than 15 we give no figures: they would be more noise than signal.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

5.7 mmfirst rain
15 Oct5 days after it ended
41km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 10 Oct, and on 15 Oct 5.7 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2018.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 27 Sept 2018
After · 17 Oct 2018

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 121Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Papua New Guinea

Frequently asked questions

How long did the South Fly District fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 4 October 2018 and 10 October 2018: 7 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 3,539 hectares (35.4 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered South Fly District (3,562 ha, 0.1 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 33.9 °C, humidity dropped to 27 % and gusts hit 41 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 35, class High.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Papua New Guinea (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 5 November 2026.
  1. Page published (3,539 ha).

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 121 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.