San Carlos Yautepec fire, December 2016
San Carlos Yautepec, San Miguel del Puerto
Out · last detection 25 Jan 2017, 20:07 UTC
The fire started on 29 December 2016 in San Carlos Yautepec, Mexico, and satellites saw it burning for 28 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 8,853 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.
It is the 7th largest in Oaxaca since 2016 (of 185 with a page). Number 5 in Mexico in 2016, of 204.
matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
When copying, the sentence is
Tick the figures you want: they make up the lede and the CSV.
Burned area
with caveats
8,853ha
Perimeter published by GWIS (Copernicus).
This page8,853CONAFOR5,338
Source
GWIS (Copernicus)
Date
29 Dec 2016 – 25 Jan 2017
+− cross-check
CONAFOR: 5,338 ha (matched records: 3). Difference between the page and the official record: +65.8%. Matched on 8 November 2026. The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
Duration by satellite
satellite only
28days
29 Dec 2016 to 25 Jan 2017: first and last day with fire on the page.
Source
GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
last detection: 25 Jan 2017, 20:07 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only
29 Dec 2016
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
Source
GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
29 Dec 2016
+− cross-check
The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
Hotspots
satellite only
607
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 202 MW.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP)
Date
29 Dec 2016 – 25 Jan 2017
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only
1,378MW
Total radiative power on 9 January 2017; hotspots that day: 48.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
Date
9 Jan 2017
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model
22.1FWI · high
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 13.
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings ›
Weather during the fire
model
27.2°C · 40% RH
High of 27.2 °C and minimum humidity of 40% on 29 December 2016; gusts of 73 km/h on 8 January 2017.
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
ⓘThis page’s change log has been kept since 24 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
· reconstructedofficial
Matched with the official CONAFOR record
Nearby records with very different figures: 5,338 ha (records: 3).
A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
People and buildings inside the perimeter
GHSL 2015
Built-up area0.37ha
Residents< 20
Inside the perimeter there were about 0.37 hectares of built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2015, satellite-based estimate).
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.
According to CONAFOR, 3 fires started inside this perimeter on these dates, totalling 5,338 ha (the satellite measured 8,853 ha). The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
CONAFOR records each fire that started at a different time or place separately; the satellite sees a single burned area, so this page groups them together. The numbers on the map show where each one started.
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
Day
High
Min. humidity
Peak gust
Rain
Danger (FWI)
29 Dec
27.2 °C
40 %
46 km/h
0.0 mm
High 22
30 Dec
25.3 °C
39 %
51 km/h
0.0 mm
High 26
31 Dec
25.1 °C
43 %
34 km/h
0.0 mm
High 23
1 Jan
25.3 °C
42 %
35 km/h
0.0 mm
High 24
2 Jan
25.8 °C
42 %
28 km/h
0.0 mm
High 23
3 Jan
26.2 °C
39 %
33 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 20
4 Jan
26.4 °C
37 %
34 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 20
5 Jan
25.3 °C
39 %
33 km/h
0.0 mm
High 26
6 Jan
26.3 °C
36 %
41 km/h
0.0 mm
High 29
7 Jan
24.1 °C
46 %
66 km/h
0.0 mm
High 33
8 Jan
22.3 °C
42 %
73 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 40
9 Jan
24.0 °C
41 %
63 km/h
0.0 mm
High 28
10 Jan
25.5 °C
30 %
38 km/h
0.0 mm
High 24
11 Jan
25.1 °C
40 %
29 km/h
0.5 mm
High 25
12 Jan
25.2 °C
37 %
28 km/h
0.0 mm
High 28
13 Jan
26.1 °C
37 %
38 km/h
0.0 mm
High 24
14 Jan
25.5 °C
42 %
47 km/h
0.1 mm
High 30
15 Jan
24.8 °C
46 %
38 km/h
0.7 mm
High 25
16 Jan
24.5 °C
49 %
36 km/h
0.0 mm
High 26
17 Jan
24.9 °C
37 %
34 km/h
0.0 mm
High 28
18 Jan
25.4 °C
41 %
35 km/h
0.0 mm
High 28
19 Jan
25.3 °C
42 %
39 km/h
0.0 mm
High 30
20 Jan
26.1 °C
41 %
55 km/h
0.0 mm
High 35
21 Jan
25.5 °C
45 %
52 km/h
0.0 mm
High 33
22 Jan
25.5 °C
53 %
37 km/h
0.0 mm
High 24
23 Jan
24.9 °C
35 %
36 km/h
5.7 mm
Very low 4
24 Jan
25.5 °C
41 %
38 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 14
25 Jan
24.6 °C
41 %
38 km/h
0.0 mm
High 22
26 Jan after
24.4 °C
61 %
33 km/h
0.4 mm
Moderate 18
27 Jan after
25.5 °C
49 %
31 km/h
0.1 mm
Moderate 18
28 Jan after
24.8 °C
40 %
32 km/h
0.0 mm
High 23
29 Jan after
23.0 °C
47 %
58 km/h
0.0 mm
High 29
30 Jan after
23.4 °C
40 %
53 km/h
0.0 mm
High 25
31 Jan after
23.7 °C
41 %
32 km/h
0.0 mm
High 23
1 Feb after
24.9 °C
40 %
32 km/h
0.0 mm
High 25
2 Feb after
24.6 °C
33 %
32 km/h
0.0 mm
High 24
3 Feb after
27.1 °C
42 %
48 km/h
0.0 mm
High 27
4 Feb after
26.4 °C
42 %
50 km/h
0.0 mm
High 34
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 22.1, a minimum humidity of 40% and 13 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 16.
FWI at the start22.1
Minimum humidity40 %
Days without rain13
this firechosen twinsrest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
This fire · San Carlos Yautepec fire, December 2016
8,853 ha28 daysFWI 22.1Min. humidity 40 %
San Juan Cotzocón fire, May 2019
2,041 ha13 daysFWI 20.5Min. humidity 40 %108 km away, in 2019
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 3.2 mm on 15 May.
It was 3.1 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 28 days, against 9 days.
None of its 16 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 3 of 16, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.2 mm.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How it ended
—first rain
—no rain in ten days
73km/h · max. gust
It was considered over on 25 Jan, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 13 of 16, with a median of 3.2 mm.
Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
How a twin is chosen
Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 29 December 2016 to 25 January 2017 (28 days). The perimeter dates it from 29 December 2016 to 19 January 2017.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 8,853 hectares (88.5 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: San Carlos Yautepec (8,458 ha, 3.6 %); San Miguel del Puerto (432 ha, 0.8 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 27.2 °C, humidity dropped to 30 % and gusts hit 73 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 40, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mexico (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 16. Their median duration was 9 days and their median area 2,858 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. None of its 16 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 3 of 16, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.2 mm.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
⚑Report an errorHow we know this›
Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 29 December 2016 to 19 January 2017. 607 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
Compared with CONAFOR: 5,338 official ha against 8,853 ha of perimeter; similar, but with reservations.
Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2015, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.
The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.