Skip to content
worldfires
BW · Botswana · –

Ngamiland East fire, 9 May 2016 Ngamiland East

Out · last detection 15 May 2016, 12:52 UTC

The fire started on 9 May 2016 in Ngamiland East, Botswana, and satellites saw it burning for 7 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 10,697 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 71th largest in North-West District since 2016 (of 513 with a page). Number 6 in Botswana in 2016, of 76.

Burnt area
10,697ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
7days
9 May 2016 – 15 May 2016
Municipalities hit
1
subdistricts
Started on
9 May
2016
Heat detections
459
in a single hotspot: 168 MW
Danger at start
41
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
1.3GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 9 May15 May
15 May 2016

How it evolved, day by day

9 May 2016 · 5,117 MW · 129 10 May 2016 · 484 MW · 85 11 May 2016 · 376 MW · 53 12 May 2016 · 1,006 MW · 88 13 May 2016 · 1,915 MW · 78 14 May 2016 · 123 MW · 18 15 May 2016 · 36 MW · 8
9 May 11 May 13 May 15 May

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

31°high
50km/h · peak gust
16%lowest humidity

It had gone 31 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 6.8% of the area of London (107 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Ngamiland East where it started
    10,763 ha reached on 9 May
    0.2 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2015
Built-up area0.25 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there were about 0.25 hectares of built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2015, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
9 May 27.8 °C 29 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
10 May 28.3 °C 28 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
11 May 29.9 °C 20 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
12 May 29.4 °C 16 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
13 May 30.7 °C 22 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
14 May 28.6 °C 27 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
15 May 28.3 °C 20 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
16 May after 28.3 °C 16 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
17 May after 28.5 °C 17 % 22 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
18 May after 28.9 °C 26 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
19 May after 28.3 °C 24 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
20 May after 27.2 °C 22 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
21 May after 25.3 °C 28 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
22 May after 24.4 °C 30 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
23 May after 25.5 °C 28 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
24 May after 25.7 °C 27 % 20 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
25 May after 26.4 °C 22 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 34

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 41.1, a minimum humidity of 29% and 31 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 56.

FWI at the start 41.1
Minimum humidity 29 %
Days without rain 31
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Ngamiland East fire, June 2022
41,061 ha 21 days FWI 36.8 Min. humidity 29 % 26 km away, in 2022

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

8 days
median duration
4,476 ha
median area
23 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.3 mm
rain at the end (median; 16 of 56 had it)

It was 2.4 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 7 days, against 8 days.

Only 11 of its 56 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 40 of 56, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.3 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
50km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 May, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 16 of 56, with a median of 2.3 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 2 May 2016
After · 22 May 2016

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 459Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Botswana

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Ngamiland East fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 9 May 2016 and 15 May 2016: 7 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 10,697 hectares (107.0 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Ngamiland East (10,763 ha, 0.2 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 30.7 °C, humidity dropped to 16 % and gusts hit 50 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 52, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Botswana (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 56. Their median duration was 8 days and their median area 4,476 ha; 23 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 11 of its 56 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 40 of 56, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.3 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 2 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 459 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2015, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.