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SS · South Sudan · –

Nagero fire, 29 December 2024 Nagero, Tambura

Out · last detection 8 Jan 2025, 23:06 UTC

The fire started on 29 December 2024 in Nagero, South Sudan, and satellites saw it burning for 10 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 10,109 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 111th largest in Western Equatoria since 2016 (of 299 with a page). Number 59 in South Sudan in 2024, of 180.

Compare with…
Burnt area
10,109ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
10days
29 Dec 2024 – 7 Jan 2025
Municipalities hit
2
counties
Started on
29 Dec
2024
Heat detections
490
in a single hotspot: 118 MW
Danger at start
65
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
279MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 29 Dec7 Jan
8 Jan 2025

How it evolved, day by day

29 Dec 2024 · 87 MW · 14 30 Dec 2024 · 344 MW · 52 31 Dec 2024 · 558 MW · 137 1 Jan 2025 · 748 MW · 65 2 Jan 2025 · 367 MW · 48 3 Jan 2025 · 286 MW · 40 4 Jan 2025 · 370 MW · 44 5 Jan 2025 · 198 MW · 36 6 Jan 2025 · 83 MW · 35 7 Jan 2025 · 9 MW · 3 8 Jan 2025 · 21 MW · 16
29 Dec 1 Jan 4 Jan 7 Jan

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
41km/h · peak gust
11%lowest humidity

It had gone 42 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

100% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 6,837 ha in 2016, 3,611 ha in 2017, 1,597 ha in 2018, 4,672 ha in 2019, 2,682 ha in 2020, 2,560 ha in 2021, 3,338 ha in 2022, 2,235 ha in 2023. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 10,080 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 6.4% of the area of London (101 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Nagero where it started
    9,116 ha reached on 29 Dec
    1.0 %
  2. 1,062 ha reached on 31 Dec
    0.1 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
29 Dec 36.4 °C 15 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
30 Dec 36.2 °C 16 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 70
31 Dec 35.2 °C 13 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72
1 Jan 33.8 °C 12 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
2 Jan 34.7 °C 14 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 69
3 Jan 35.6 °C 13 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
4 Jan 37.4 °C 14 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
5 Jan 37.9 °C 13 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 62
6 Jan 36.8 °C 12 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 73
7 Jan 35.0 °C 11 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 70
8 Jan after 35.9 °C 12 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
9 Jan after 36.1 °C 10 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 63
10 Jan after 36.8 °C 11 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72
11 Jan after 35.4 °C 12 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 70
12 Jan after 33.9 °C 14 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
13 Jan after 34.5 °C 12 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 67
14 Jan after 35.8 °C 12 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 69
15 Jan after 36.9 °C 11 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 66
16 Jan after 37.4 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 70
17 Jan after 38.0 °C 15 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 64.9, a minimum humidity of 15% and 42 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 42.

FWI at the start 64.9
Minimum humidity 15 %
Days without rain 42
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Tambura fire, January 2020
6,818 ha 14 days FWI 64.6 Min. humidity 16 % 71 km away, in 2020

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

14 days
median duration
7,410 ha
median area
33 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.1 mm
rain at the end (median; 2 of 42 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (10,109 ha against a median of 7,410 ha) and lasted 10 days, against 14 days.

In 40 of 42, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.1 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
41km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 7 Jan, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 2 of 42, with a median of 2.1 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 22 Dec 2024
After · 14 Jan 2025

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 4 January 2025 the air beside the fire reached 73 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 47: 3.1 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak73 µg/m³
Days over the guideline14 days
PM1077 µg/m³
Optical depth0.79
28 Dec31 Dec3 Jan6 Jan9 Jan
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 490Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Sudan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Nagero fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 29 December 2024 to 7 January 2025 (10 days). The perimeter dates it from 30 December 2024 to 7 January 2025.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 10,109 hectares (101.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Nagero (9,116 ha, 1.0 %); Tambura (1,062 ha, 0.1 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 37.9 °C, humidity dropped to 11 % and gusts hit 41 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 74, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Sudan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 42. Their median duration was 14 days and their median area 7,410 ha; 33 % went past 10,000 ha. In 40 of 42, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.1 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 30 December 2024 → 29 December 2024.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 30 December 2024 to 7 January 2025. 490 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.