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SS · South Sudan · –

Nagero fire, 5 December 2021 Nagero

Out · last detection 10 Dec 2021, 23:00 UTC

The fire started on 5 December 2021 in Nagero, South Sudan, and satellites saw it burning for 7 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 7,409 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 152th largest in Western Equatoria since 2016 (of 299 with a page). Number 100 in South Sudan in 2021, of 212.

Compare with…
Burnt area
7,409ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
7days
5 Dec 2021 – 11 Dec 2021
Municipalities hit
1
counties
Started on
5 Dec
2021
Heat detections
197
in a single hotspot: 344 MW
Danger at start
43
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
1.0GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 5 Dec11 Dec
10 Dec 2021

How it evolved, day by day

6 Dec 2021 · 1,882 MW · 44 7 Dec 2021 · 2,790 MW · 86 8 Dec 2021 · 101 MW · 25 9 Dec 2021 · 242 MW · 22 10 Dec 2021 · 197 MW · 20
6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec 10 Dec

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
42km/h · peak gust
14%lowest humidity

It had gone 22 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

43% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 2,550 ha in 2016, 56 ha in 2017, 1 ha in 2018, 350 ha in 2019, 1,194 ha in 2020. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 3,191 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 4.7% of the area of London (74 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Nagero where it started
    7,462 ha reached on 6 Dec
    0.8 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
5 Dec 37.6 °C 18 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
6 Dec 35.6 °C 22 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
7 Dec 36.9 °C 21 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
8 Dec 38.1 °C 14 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
9 Dec 36.7 °C 16 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
10 Dec 36.2 °C 16 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
11 Dec 37.0 °C 20 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
12 Dec after 37.9 °C 16 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
13 Dec after 38.3 °C 14 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
14 Dec after 38.0 °C 15 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
15 Dec after 36.6 °C 17 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
16 Dec after 36.3 °C 13 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
17 Dec after 36.2 °C 13 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
18 Dec after 35.2 °C 18 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
19 Dec after 35.5 °C 15 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
20 Dec after 34.4 °C 16 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
21 Dec after 33.5 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 42.6, a minimum humidity of 18% and 22 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 45.

FWI at the start 42.6
Minimum humidity 18 %
Days without rain 22
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Nagero fire, December 2017
6,042 ha 13 days FWI 42.2 Min. humidity 19 % 37 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

13 days
median duration
7,014 ha
median area
22 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.3 mm
rain at the end (median; 2 of 45 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (7,409 ha against a median of 7,014 ha) and lasted 7 days, against 13 days.

In 43 of 45, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.3 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
42km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 11 Dec, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 2 of 45, with a median of 1.3 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 28 Nov 2021
After · 18 Dec 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 197Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Sudan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Nagero fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 5 December 2021 to 11 December 2021 (7 days). The perimeter dates it from 6 December 2021 to 10 December 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 7,409 hectares (74.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Nagero (7,462 ha, 0.8 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 38.1 °C, humidity dropped to 14 % and gusts hit 42 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 52, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Sudan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 45. Their median duration was 13 days and their median area 7,014 ha; 22 % went past 10,000 ha. In 43 of 45, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.3 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 10 December 2021 → 11 December 2021.
  2. Start date: 6 December 2021 → 5 December 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 6 December 2021 to 10 December 2021. 197 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.