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ZM · Zambia · –

Mungwi fire, 5 September 2023 Mungwi

Out · last detection 16 Sept 2023, 12:05 UTC

The fire started on 5 September 2023 in Mungwi, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 12 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 4,191 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 251th largest in Northern since 2016 (of 443 with a page). Number 86 in Zambia in 2023, of 165.

Compare with…
Burnt area
4,191ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
12days
5 Sept 2023 – 16 Sept 2023
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
5 Sept
2023
Heat detections
140
in a single hotspot: 181 MW
Danger at start
33
High · FWI index
Average daily power
308MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 5 Sept16 Sept
16 Sept 2023

How it evolved, day by day

5 Sept 2023 · 10 MW · 1 6 Sept 2023 · 1,976 MW · 36 7 Sept 2023 · 378 MW · 21 8 Sept 2023 · 672 MW · 40 9 Sept 2023 · 260 MW · 9 10 Sept 2023 · 113 MW · 11 11 Sept 2023 · 118 MW · 10 12 Sept 2023 · 8 MW · 1 13 Sept 2023 · 18 MW · 2 14 Sept 2023 · 86 MW · 1 15 Sept 2023 · 47 MW · 7 16 Sept 2023 · 9 MW · 1
6 Sept 11 Sept 14 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

32°high
51km/h · peak gust
20%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

99% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,450 ha in 2016, 907 ha in 2017, 1,573 ha in 2018, 2,790 ha in 2019, 2,432 ha in 2020, 1,895 ha in 2021, 1,608 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 4,155 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 2.6% of the area of London (42 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Mungwi where it started
    4,217 ha reached on 5 Sept
    0.4 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area1.7 ha
Residents≈ 200

Inside the perimeter there were about 1.7 hectares of built-up land and about 200 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
5 Sept 29.8 °C 27 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
6 Sept 31.5 °C 26 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
7 Sept 31.6 °C 27 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
8 Sept 30.5 °C 23 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
9 Sept 30.2 °C 20 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
10 Sept 29.7 °C 25 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
11 Sept 31.4 °C 27 % 21 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
12 Sept 32.3 °C 28 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
13 Sept 29.3 °C 30 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
14 Sept 27.5 °C 34 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
15 Sept 30.1 °C 26 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
16 Sept 31.5 °C 23 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
17 Sept after 32.3 °C 21 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
18 Sept after 32.1 °C 18 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
19 Sept after 31.4 °C 23 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
20 Sept after 32.1 °C 19 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
21 Sept after 32.7 °C 16 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
22 Sept after 31.8 °C 21 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
23 Sept after 32.1 °C 20 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
24 Sept after 31.9 °C 24 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
25 Sept after 31.7 °C 25 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
26 Sept after 33.0 °C 21 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 33.2, a minimum humidity of 27% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 46.

FWI at the start 33.2
Minimum humidity 27 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mungwi fire, August 2016
3,796 ha 19 days FWI 32.5 Min. humidity 27 % 27 km away, in 2016

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

16 days
median duration
4,386 ha
median area
15 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 11 of 46 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (4,191 ha against a median of 4,386 ha) and lasted 12 days, against 16 days.

In 35 of 46, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
51km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 16 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 11 of 46, with a median of 1.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 29 Aug 2023
After · 23 Sept 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 11 September 2023 the air beside the fire reached 60 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 36: 2.4 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak60 µg/m³
Days over the guideline8 days
PM1087 µg/m³
Optical depth1.80
3 Sept5 Sept7 Sept9 Sept11 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 140Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Mungwi fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 5 September 2023 to 16 September 2023 (12 days). The perimeter dates it from 5 September 2023 to 9 September 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 4,191 hectares (41.9 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Mungwi (4,217 ha, 0.4 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 32.3 °C, humidity dropped to 20 % and gusts hit 51 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 45, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 46. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 4,386 ha; 15 % went past 10,000 ha. In 35 of 46, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 9 September 2023 → 16 September 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 5 September 2023 to 9 September 2023. 140 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.