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ZM · Zambia · –

Mufumbwe fire, 19 September 2020 Mufumbwe

Out · last detection 27 Sept 2020, 12:28 UTC

The fire started on 19 September 2020 in Mufumbwe, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 9 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 4,161 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 59th largest in North-Western since 2016 (of 133 with a page). Number 131 in Zambia in 2020, of 229.

The power measured by the satellite is low (27.9 MW in the strongest hotspot), more typical of grass or stubble burning, or a slow surface fire, than of a large crown fire.

Burnt area
4,161ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
9days
19 Sept 2020 – 27 Sept 2020
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
19 Sept
2020
Heat detections
121
in a single hotspot: 28 MW
Danger at start
50
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
111MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 19 Sept27 Sept
27 Sept 2020

How it evolved, day by day

21 Sept 2020 · 352 MW · 27 22 Sept 2020 · 104 MW · 27 23 Sept 2020 · 78 MW · 21 24 Sept 2020 · 147 MW · 26 25 Sept 2020 · 45 MW · 7 26 Sept 2020 · 40 MW · 12 27 Sept 2020 · 13 MW · 1
21 Sept 23 Sept 25 Sept 27 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
49km/h · peak gust
10%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

36% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 750 ha in 2016, 762 ha in 2019.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 2.6% of the area of London (42 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Mufumbwe where it started
    4,192 ha reached on 21 Sept
    0.2 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
19 Sept 33.1 °C 18 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
20 Sept 33.8 °C 16 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
21 Sept 34.5 °C 15 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
22 Sept 34.6 °C 11 % 49 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
23 Sept 32.1 °C 18 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
24 Sept 32.1 °C 14 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
25 Sept 33.8 °C 13 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
26 Sept 35.6 °C 10 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
27 Sept 35.1 °C 18 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
28 Sept after 36.8 °C 13 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
29 Sept after 34.2 °C 21 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
30 Sept after 35.1 °C 18 % 41 km/h 0.2 mm Extreme 50
1 Oct after 34.8 °C 20 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
2 Oct after 35.8 °C 13 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
3 Oct after 36.3 °C 12 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
4 Oct after 37.0 °C 9 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
5 Oct after 37.0 °C 13 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
6 Oct after 36.3 °C 15 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
7 Oct after 34.6 °C 20 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 49.5, a minimum humidity of 18% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 18.

FWI at the start 49.5
Minimum humidity 18 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mufumbwe fire, October 2022
25,793 ha 15 days FWI 49.2 Min. humidity 17 % 47 km away, in 2022

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

10 days
median duration
5,207 ha
median area
28 %
went past 10,000 ha
4.6 mm
rain at the end (median; 2 of 18 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (4,161 ha against a median of 5,207 ha) and lasted 9 days, against 10 days.

In 16 of 18, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 4.6 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
49km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 27 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 2 of 18, with a median of 4.6 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 12 Sept 2020
After · 4 Oct 2020

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 121Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Mufumbwe fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 19 September 2020 to 27 September 2020 (9 days). The perimeter dates it from 21 September 2020 to 27 September 2020.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 4,161 hectares (41.6 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Mufumbwe (4,192 ha, 0.2 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 35.6 °C, humidity dropped to 10 % and gusts hit 49 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 57, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 18. Their median duration was 10 days and their median area 5,207 ha; 28 % went past 10,000 ha. In 16 of 18, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 4.6 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 21 September 2020 → 19 September 2020.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 21 September 2020 to 27 September 2020. 121 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.