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MZ · Mozambique · –

Mocubela fire, 1 October 2022 Mocubela, Mocuba

Out · last detection 23 Oct 2022, 11:12 UTC

The fire started on 1 October 2022 in Mocubela, Mozambique, and satellites saw it burning for 23 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 4,228 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 311th largest in Zambézia since 2016 (of 564 with a page). Number 107 in Mozambique in 2022, of 206.

Burnt area
4,228ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
23days
1 Oct 2022 – 23 Oct 2022
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
1 Oct
2022
Heat detections
207
in a single hotspot: 85 MW
Danger at start
40
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
92MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 1 Oct23 Oct
23 Oct 2022

How it evolved, day by day

1 Oct 2022 · 15 MW · 2 2 Oct 2022 · 38 MW · 7 3 Oct 2022 · 41 MW · 6 4 Oct 2022 · 272 MW · 19 5 Oct 2022 · 117 MW · 15 6 Oct 2022 · 100 MW · 22 7 Oct 2022 · 151 MW · 18 8 Oct 2022 · 34 MW · 5 9 Oct 2022 · 36 MW · 5 10 Oct 2022 · 256 MW · 28 11 Oct 2022 · 23 MW · 2 12 Oct 2022 · 125 MW · 18 13 Oct 2022 · 30 MW · 5 14 Oct 2022 · 348 MW · 28 15 Oct 2022 · 22 MW · 5 16 Oct 2022 · 79 MW · 8 17 Oct 2022 · 38 MW · 9 22 Oct 2022 · 23 MW · 3 23 Oct 2022 · 8 MW · 2
1 Oct 5 Oct 9 Oct 14 Oct 17 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
49km/h · peak gust
18%lowest humidity

It had gone 29 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.0 mm on 30 Oct.

This area had burned before

94% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 738 ha in 2016, 263 ha in 2018, 1,862 ha in 2019, 899 ha in 2020, 3,236 ha in 2021. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 3,965 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 2.7% of the area of London (42 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Mocubela where it started
    3,060 ha reached on 1 Oct
    0.6 %
  2. 1,192 ha reached on 1 Oct
    0.1 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area1.1 ha
Residents≈ 200

Inside the perimeter there were about 1.1 hectares of built-up land and about 200 residents (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
1 Oct 34.8 °C 23 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
2 Oct 35.1 °C 29 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
3 Oct 34.1 °C 37 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
4 Oct 38.0 °C 19 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
5 Oct 37.3 °C 21 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
6 Oct 35.8 °C 29 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
7 Oct 36.8 °C 28 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
8 Oct 33.4 °C 44 % 35 km/h 0.5 mm High 37
9 Oct 35.1 °C 33 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
10 Oct 35.9 °C 25 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
11 Oct 34.3 °C 33 % 45 km/h 0.1 mm Very high 44
12 Oct 34.0 °C 31 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
13 Oct 35.7 °C 28 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
14 Oct 37.7 °C 18 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
15 Oct 37.3 °C 20 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
16 Oct 35.8 °C 23 % 49 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
17 Oct 34.5 °C 29 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
18 Oct 33.3 °C 37 % 30 km/h 0.4 mm High 36
19 Oct 34.1 °C 39 % 34 km/h 0.2 mm Very high 39
20 Oct 34.5 °C 32 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
21 Oct 37.0 °C 22 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
22 Oct 37.8 °C 22 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
23 Oct 38.3 °C 19 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
24 Oct after 37.9 °C 24 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
25 Oct after 38.2 °C 23 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
26 Oct after 39.0 °C 20 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
27 Oct after 38.9 °C 18 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
28 Oct after 38.8 °C 20 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
29 Oct after 33.7 °C 40 % 38 km/h 0.6 mm Very high 44
30 Oct after 32.9 °C 48 % 28 km/h 1.0 mm High 22

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 40.5, a minimum humidity of 23% and 29 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 18.

FWI at the start 40.5
Minimum humidity 23 %
Days without rain 29
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Gurué fire, September 2016
5,034 ha 15 days FWI 40.8 Min. humidity 24 % 137 km away, in 2016

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 15.5 mm on 3 Oct.

What happened to them

19 days
median duration
3,639 ha
median area
11 %
went past 10,000 ha
4.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 12 of 18 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (4,228 ha against a median of 3,639 ha) and lasted 23 days, against 19 days.

In 6 of 18, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 4.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.0 mmfirst rain
30 Oct7 days after it ended
49km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 23 Oct, and on 30 Oct 1.0 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 12 of 18, with a median of 4.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 24 Sept 2022
After · 30 Oct 2022

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 19 October 2022 the air beside the fire reached 102 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 42: 2.8 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak102 µg/m³
Days over the guideline23 days
PM10147 µg/m³
Optical depth1.00
29 Sept5 Oct11 Oct17 Oct23 Oct
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 207Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Mozambique

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Mocubela fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 1 October 2022 to 23 October 2022 (23 days). The perimeter dates it from 3 October 2022 to 16 October 2022.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 4,228 hectares (42.3 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Mocubela (3,060 ha, 0.6 %); Mocuba (1,192 ha, 0.1 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 38.3 °C, humidity dropped to 18 % and gusts hit 49 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 57, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mozambique (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 18. Their median duration was 19 days and their median area 3,639 ha; 11 % went past 10,000 ha. In 6 of 18, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 4.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 16 October 2022 → 23 October 2022.
  2. Start date: 3 October 2022 → 1 October 2022.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 3 October 2022 to 16 October 2022. 207 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.