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MG · Madagascar · –

Marovoay fire, October 2023 Marovoay

Out · last detection 11 Oct 2023, 10:53 UTC

The fire started on 6 October 2023 in Marovoay, Madagascar, and satellites saw it burning for 6 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 2,246 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 22th largest in Boeny since 2016 (of 24 with a page). Number 22 in Madagascar in 2023, of 31.

Burnt area
2,246ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
6days
6 Oct 2023 – 11 Oct 2023
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
6 Oct
2023
Heat detections
72
in a single hotspot: 189 MW
Danger at start
37
High · FWI index
Average daily power
388MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 6 Oct11 Oct
11 Oct 2023

How it evolved, day by day

6 Oct 2023 · 1,219 MW · 19 7 Oct 2023 · 32 MW · 9 8 Oct 2023 · 345 MW · 23 10 Oct 2023 · 310 MW · 17 11 Oct 2023 · 33 MW · 4
6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
32km/h · peak gust
25%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.1 mm on 15 Oct.

This area had burned before

100% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 2,175 ha in 2017, 918 ha in 2019, 2,156 ha in 2021. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 2,241 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 1.4% of the area of London (22 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Marovoay where it started
    2,259 ha reached on 6 Oct
    0.4 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 16 % of the area in Madagascar

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
6 Oct 35.4 °C 26 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
7 Oct 33.9 °C 25 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
8 Oct 34.1 °C 29 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
9 Oct 34.0 °C 33 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
10 Oct 35.9 °C 25 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
11 Oct 36.1 °C 28 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
12 Oct after 36.3 °C 34 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
13 Oct after 36.6 °C 32 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
14 Oct after 36.6 °C 36 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
15 Oct after 35.1 °C 46 % 38 km/h 1.1 mm High 27

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 37.2, a minimum humidity of 26% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 24.

FWI at the start 37.2
Minimum humidity 26 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Ambato Boeni fire, September 2023
4,063 ha 19 days FWI 37.8 Min. humidity 28 % 10 km away, in 2023

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

11 days
median duration
2,568 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
3.5 mm
rain at the end (median; 15 of 24 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (2,246 ha against a median of 2,568 ha) and lasted 6 days, against 11 days.

In 9 of 24, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.5 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.1 mmfirst rain
15 Oct4 days after it ended
32km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 11 Oct, and on 15 Oct 1.1 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 15 of 24, with a median of 3.5 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 29 Sept 2023
After · 18 Oct 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 8 October 2023 the air beside the fire reached 28 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 16: 1.0 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak28 µg/m³
Days over the guideline1 day
PM1040 µg/m³
Optical depth0.62
4 Oct7 Oct10 Oct13 Oct
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 72Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Madagascar

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Marovoay fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 6 October 2023 and 11 October 2023: 6 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 2,246 hectares (22.5 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Marovoay (2,259 ha, 0.4 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 36.1 °C, humidity dropped to 25 % and gusts hit 32 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 42, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Madagascar (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 24. Their median duration was 11 days and their median area 2,568 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. In 9 of 24, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.5 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 72 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.