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ZM · Zambia · –

Mansa fire, 19 August 2021 Mwense, Mansa

Out · last detection 16 Sept 2021, 11:52 UTC

The fire started on 19 August 2021 in Mansa, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 29 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 25,982 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 40th largest in Luapula since 2016 (of 449 with a page). Number 9 in Zambia in 2021, of 213.

Compare with…
Burnt area
25,982ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
29days
19 Aug 2021 – 16 Sept 2021
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
19 Aug
2021
Heat detections
1,207
in a single hotspot: 228 MW
Danger at start
40
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
392MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 19 Aug16 Sept
16 Sept 2021

How it evolved, day by day

19 Aug 2021 · 96 MW · 10 20 Aug 2021 · 4 MW · 2 21 Aug 2021 · 44 MW · 9 22 Aug 2021 · 157 MW · 11 23 Aug 2021 · 2 MW · 3 24 Aug 2021 · 79 MW · 9 25 Aug 2021 · 225 MW · 41 26 Aug 2021 · 805 MW · 105 27 Aug 2021 · 612 MW · 76 28 Aug 2021 · 441 MW · 67 29 Aug 2021 · 2,700 MW · 191 30 Aug 2021 · 1,474 MW · 162 31 Aug 2021 · 651 MW · 101 1 Sept 2021 · 446 MW · 65 2 Sept 2021 · 156 MW · 30 3 Sept 2021 · 225 MW · 61 4 Sept 2021 · 853 MW · 67 5 Sept 2021 · 383 MW · 54 6 Sept 2021 · 725 MW · 66 7 Sept 2021 · 203 MW · 15 8 Sept 2021 · 122 MW · 12 9 Sept 2021 · 372 MW · 29 11 Sept 2021 · 49 MW · 7 12 Sept 2021 · 11 MW · 3 13 Sept 2021 · 2 MW · 1 14 Sept 2021 · 66 MW · 4 15 Sept 2021 · 7 MW · 3 16 Sept 2021 · 69 MW · 3
19 Aug 29 Aug 6 Sept 13 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

34°high
60km/h · peak gust
17%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

97% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 16,344 ha in 2016, 16,952 ha in 2017, 13,036 ha in 2018, 13,564 ha in 2019, 16,903 ha in 2020. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 25,175 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 16% of the area of London (260 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 18,506 ha
    7.6 %
  2. Mansa where it started
    7,646 ha
    1.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
19 Aug 31.4 °C 22 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
20 Aug 31.6 °C 21 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
21 Aug 31.4 °C 19 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
22 Aug 31.6 °C 24 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
23 Aug 25.5 °C 39 % 34 km/h 0.2 mm High 36
24 Aug 29.9 °C 32 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
25 Aug 31.5 °C 26 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
26 Aug 31.1 °C 24 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
27 Aug 31.9 °C 26 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
28 Aug 32.8 °C 20 % 22 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
29 Aug 32.5 °C 21 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
30 Aug 31.3 °C 21 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 63
31 Aug 30.7 °C 17 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
1 Sept 31.2 °C 17 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
2 Sept 31.0 °C 23 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
3 Sept 31.0 °C 24 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
4 Sept 31.7 °C 21 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
5 Sept 32.0 °C 19 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
6 Sept 32.1 °C 20 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
7 Sept 32.5 °C 20 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
8 Sept 32.5 °C 21 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
9 Sept 32.2 °C 21 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
10 Sept 29.4 °C 27 % 60 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
11 Sept 28.6 °C 26 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
12 Sept 30.2 °C 27 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
13 Sept 32.5 °C 24 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
14 Sept 32.8 °C 28 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
15 Sept 33.6 °C 22 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
16 Sept 34.1 °C 22 % 22 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
17 Sept after 34.9 °C 18 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
18 Sept after 34.3 °C 18 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 69
19 Sept after 31.3 °C 27 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
20 Sept after 32.5 °C 21 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
21 Sept after 34.2 °C 19 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
22 Sept after 32.7 °C 18 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 73
23 Sept after 31.4 °C 25 % 49 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
24 Sept after 31.9 °C 20 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
25 Sept after 32.2 °C 20 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
26 Sept after 31.9 °C 25 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 39.5, a minimum humidity of 22% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 48.

FWI at the start 39.5
Minimum humidity 22 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mwense fire, September 2020
3,607 ha 14 days FWI 39.4 Min. humidity 22 % 59 km away, in 2020

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 3.1 mm on 28 Sept.

What happened to them

17 days
median duration
5,034 ha
median area
27 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.5 mm
rain at the end (median; 7 of 48 had it)

It was 5.2 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 29 days, against 17 days.

Only 4 of its 48 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 41 of 48, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.5 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
60km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 16 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 7 of 48, with a median of 2.5 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 12 Aug 2021
After · 23 Sept 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 1,207Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Mansa fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 19 August 2021 to 16 September 2021 (29 days). The perimeter dates it from 23 August 2021 to 9 September 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 25,982 hectares (259.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Mwense (18,506 ha, 7.6 %); Mansa (7,646 ha, 1.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 34.1 °C, humidity dropped to 17 % and gusts hit 60 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 74, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 48. Their median duration was 17 days and their median area 5,034 ha; 27 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 4 of its 48 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 41 of 48, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.5 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 9 September 2021 → 16 September 2021.
  2. Start date: 23 August 2021 → 19 August 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 2 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 23 August 2021 to 9 September 2021. 1,207 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.