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ZM · Zambia · –

Lukulu fire, 6 September 2022 Lukulu

Out · last detection 19 Sept 2022, 11:51 UTC

The fire started on 6 September 2022 in Lukulu, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 17 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 6,920 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 14th largest in Western since 2016 (of 96 with a page). Number 60 in Zambia in 2022, of 235.

Burnt area
6,920ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
17days
6 Sept 2022 – 22 Sept 2022
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
6 Sept
2022
Heat detections
301
in a single hotspot: 134 MW
Danger at start
52
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
424MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 6 Sept22 Sept
19 Sept 2022

How it evolved, day by day

6 Sept 2022 · 31 MW · 7 8 Sept 2022 · 255 MW · 20 9 Sept 2022 · 91 MW · 11 10 Sept 2022 · 163 MW · 14 11 Sept 2022 · 1,580 MW · 103 12 Sept 2022 · 1,547 MW · 79 13 Sept 2022 · 499 MW · 32 14 Sept 2022 · 111 MW · 5 15 Sept 2022 · 10 MW · 2 16 Sept 2022 · 1,201 MW · 20 17 Sept 2022 · 0 MW · 1 18 Sept 2022 · 21 MW · 5 19 Sept 2022 · 6 MW · 2
6 Sept 11 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

34°high
52km/h · peak gust
9%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

86% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,297 ha in 2016, 1,099 ha in 2017, 34 ha in 2018, 5,631 ha in 2019, 124 ha in 2020, 1,490 ha in 2021. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 5,962 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 4.4% of the area of London (69 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Lukulu where it started
    6,954 ha reached on 6 Sept
    0.7 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 4.3 % of the area in Zambia 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
6 Sept 34.5 °C 9 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
7 Sept 32.6 °C 17 % 49 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
8 Sept 31.0 °C 17 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
9 Sept 31.8 °C 18 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
10 Sept 32.1 °C 12 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
11 Sept 33.1 °C 11 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
12 Sept 33.5 °C 11 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
13 Sept 34.1 °C 15 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
14 Sept 31.3 °C 21 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
15 Sept 29.7 °C 22 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
16 Sept 31.3 °C 19 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
17 Sept 32.6 °C 17 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
18 Sept 33.5 °C 19 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
19 Sept 32.8 °C 31 % 22 km/h 0.1 mm High 35
20 Sept 33.3 °C 30 % 27 km/h 0.8 mm High 30
21 Sept 31.8 °C 26 % 25 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
22 Sept 34.1 °C 21 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
23 Sept after 35.0 °C 20 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
24 Sept after 34.0 °C 14 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
25 Sept after 33.8 °C 16 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
26 Sept after 32.8 °C 21 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
27 Sept after 34.5 °C 16 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
28 Sept after 33.2 °C 17 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
29 Sept after 31.5 °C 26 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
30 Sept after 32.3 °C 22 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
1 Oct after 33.5 °C 13 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
2 Oct after 34.3 °C 16 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 51.6, a minimum humidity of 9% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 27.

FWI at the start 51.6
Minimum humidity 9 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Lukulu fire, August 2023
3,174 ha 18 days FWI 49.4 Min. humidity 10 % 20 km away, in 2023

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

14 days
median duration
4,036 ha
median area
7 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.0 mm
rain at the end (median; 8 of 27 had it)

It was 1.7 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 17 days, against 14 days.

Only 3 of its 27 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 19 of 27, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.0 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
52km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 22 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 8 of 27, with a median of 2.0 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 30 Aug 2022
After · 29 Sept 2022

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 12 September 2022 the air beside the fire reached 110 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 67: 4.5 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak110 µg/m³
Days over the guideline18 days
PM10157 µg/m³
Optical depth1.31
4 Sept9 Sept14 Sept19 Sept24 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 301Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Lukulu fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 6 September 2022 to 22 September 2022 (17 days). The perimeter dates it from 8 September 2022 to 15 September 2022.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 6,920 hectares (69.2 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Lukulu (6,954 ha, 0.7 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 34.5 °C, humidity dropped to 9 % and gusts hit 52 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 57, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 27. Their median duration was 14 days and their median area 4,036 ha; 7 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 3 of its 27 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 19 of 27, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.0 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 15 September 2022 → 22 September 2022.
  2. Start date: 8 September 2022 → 6 September 2022.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 8 September 2022 to 15 September 2022. 301 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.