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MZ · Mozambique · –

Lugela fire, 22 September 2023 Lugela, Namarrói

Out · last detection 16 Oct 2023, 11:00 UTC

The fire started on 22 September 2023 in Lugela, Mozambique, and satellites saw it burning for 25 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 17,879 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 49th largest in Zambézia since 2016 (of 564 with a page). Number 4 in Mozambique in 2023, of 128.

Burnt area
17,879ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
25days
22 Sept 2023 – 16 Oct 2023
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
22 Sept
2023
Heat detections
1,156
in a single hotspot: 173 MW
Danger at start
24
High · FWI index
Average daily power
557MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 22 Sept16 Oct
16 Oct 2023

How it evolved, day by day

22 Sept 2023 · 83 MW · 12 23 Sept 2023 · 37 MW · 9 24 Sept 2023 · 273 MW · 36 25 Sept 2023 · 20 MW · 2 26 Sept 2023 · 44 MW · 15 27 Sept 2023 · 76 MW · 7 28 Sept 2023 · 99 MW · 11 29 Sept 2023 · 581 MW · 72 30 Sept 2023 · 923 MW · 109 1 Oct 2023 · 1,174 MW · 111 2 Oct 2023 · 589 MW · 49 4 Oct 2023 · 944 MW · 62 5 Oct 2023 · 810 MW · 77 6 Oct 2023 · 1,530 MW · 132 7 Oct 2023 · 4,202 MW · 211 8 Oct 2023 · 612 MW · 103 9 Oct 2023 · 153 MW · 16 10 Oct 2023 · 443 MW · 54 11 Oct 2023 · 445 MW · 22 12 Oct 2023 · 99 MW · 19 13 Oct 2023 · 38 MW · 5 14 Oct 2023 · 69 MW · 8 15 Oct 2023 · 53 MW · 8 16 Oct 2023 · 64 MW · 6
22 Sept 27 Sept 2 Oct 7 Oct 13 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
45km/h · peak gust
17%lowest humidity

It had gone 7 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 2.8 mm on 17 Oct.

This area had burned before

100% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 13,421 ha in 2016, 13,310 ha in 2017, 4,678 ha in 2018, 9,364 ha in 2019, 13,598 ha in 2020, 8,951 ha in 2021, 14,651 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 17,864 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 11% of the area of London (179 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Lugela where it started
    11,024 ha reached on 22 Sept
    1.8 %
  2. 6,946 ha reached on 22 Sept
    2.3 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area5.5 ha
Residents≈ 1,100

Inside the perimeter there were about 5.5 hectares of built-up land and about 1,100 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
22 Sept 32.6 °C 26 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
23 Sept 32.8 °C 25 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
24 Sept 32.9 °C 29 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
25 Sept 32.4 °C 31 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm High 25
26 Sept 33.0 °C 29 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
27 Sept 32.2 °C 33 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
28 Sept 32.2 °C 31 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
29 Sept 32.0 °C 32 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
30 Sept 33.7 °C 24 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
1 Oct 36.2 °C 22 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
2 Oct 30.6 °C 38 % 45 km/h 1.2 mm High 23
3 Oct 23.5 °C 59 % 41 km/h 9.1 mm Very low 3
4 Oct 29.1 °C 39 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Low 9
5 Oct 31.6 °C 33 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 19
6 Oct 34.1 °C 25 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 25
7 Oct 35.2 °C 22 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
8 Oct 36.3 °C 26 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
9 Oct 33.0 °C 34 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
10 Oct 33.3 °C 27 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
11 Oct 33.6 °C 28 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
12 Oct 35.3 °C 27 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
13 Oct 38.0 °C 21 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
14 Oct 38.3 °C 17 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
15 Oct 33.9 °C 35 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
16 Oct 35.6 °C 32 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
17 Oct after 33.4 °C 34 % 37 km/h 2.8 mm Moderate 18

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 24.0, a minimum humidity of 26% and 7 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 41.

FWI at the start 24.0
Minimum humidity 26 %
Days without rain 7
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Namarrói fire, September 2019
12,881 ha 26 days FWI 24.9 Min. humidity 28 % 4 km away, in 2019

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.1 mm on 12 Oct.

What happened to them

16 days
median duration
4,369 ha
median area
20 %
went past 10,000 ha
3.0 mm
rain at the end (median; 30 of 41 had it)

It was 4.1 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 25 days, against 16 days.

Only 5 of its 41 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 11 of 41, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.0 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

2.8 mmfirst rain
17 Octthe day after it ended
45km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 16 Oct, and on 17 Oct 2.8 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 30 of 41, with a median of 3.0 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 15 Sept 2023
After · 23 Oct 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 2 October 2023 the air beside the fire reached 44 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 25: 1.7 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak44 µg/m³
Days over the guideline8 days
PM1063 µg/m³
Optical depth0.99
27 Sept1 Oct5 Oct9 Oct13 Oct
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 1,156Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Mozambique

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Lugela fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 22 September 2023 to 16 October 2023 (25 days). The perimeter dates it from 29 September 2023 to 12 October 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 17,879 hectares (178.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Lugela (11,024 ha, 1.8 %); Namarrói (6,946 ha, 2.3 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 38.3 °C, humidity dropped to 17 % and gusts hit 45 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 42, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mozambique (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 41. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 4,369 ha; 20 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 5 of its 41 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 11 of 41, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.0 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 12 October 2023 → 16 October 2023.
  2. Start date: 29 September 2023 → 22 September 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 29 September 2023 to 12 October 2023. 1,156 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.