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TZ · Tanzania · –

Kilombero fire, 27 October 2022 Kilombero

Out · last detection 23 Nov 2022, 11:33 UTC

The fire started on 27 October 2022 in Kilombero, Tanzania, and satellites saw it burning for 28 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 5,643 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 38th largest in Morogoro since 2016 (of 102 with a page). Number 16 in Tanzania in 2022, of 71.

Burnt area
5,643ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
28days
27 Oct 2022 – 23 Nov 2022
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
27 Oct
2022
Heat detections
261
in a single hotspot: 285 MW
Danger at start
36
High · FWI index
Average daily power
412MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 27 Oct23 Nov
23 Nov 2022

How it evolved, day by day

27 Oct 2022 · 105 MW · 5 28 Oct 2022 · 5 MW · 1 29 Oct 2022 · 123 MW · 2 31 Oct 2022 · 44 MW · 3 2 Nov 2022 · 353 MW · 8 3 Nov 2022 · 544 MW · 17 4 Nov 2022 · 1,428 MW · 13 5 Nov 2022 · 2,020 MW · 40 6 Nov 2022 · 231 MW · 14 7 Nov 2022 · 692 MW · 29 8 Nov 2022 · 1,289 MW · 42 9 Nov 2022 · 101 MW · 9 11 Nov 2022 · 1,663 MW · 17 12 Nov 2022 · 73 MW · 4 13 Nov 2022 · 47 MW · 8 14 Nov 2022 · 120 MW · 12 15 Nov 2022 · 110 MW · 6 16 Nov 2022 · 85 MW · 7 18 Nov 2022 · 71 MW · 7 19 Nov 2022 · 86 MW · 5 20 Nov 2022 · 225 MW · 4 21 Nov 2022 · 15 MW · 3 23 Nov 2022 · 35 MW · 5
27 Oct 5 Nov 14 Nov 20 Nov

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
37km/h · peak gust
22%lowest humidity

It had gone 32 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 3.4 mm on 24 Nov.

This area had burned before

57% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,515 ha in 2016, 1,415 ha in 2017, 2,582 ha in 2019, 1,842 ha in 2021. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 3,231 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 3.6% of the area of London (56 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Kilombero where it started
    5,688 ha reached on 27 Oct
    0.4 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area0.37 ha
Residents≈ 80

Inside the perimeter there were about 0.37 hectares of built-up land and about 80 residents (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
27 Oct 33.3 °C 28 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
28 Oct 34.5 °C 22 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
29 Oct 34.7 °C 27 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
30 Oct 33.8 °C 30 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
31 Oct 34.3 °C 27 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
1 Nov 33.1 °C 29 % 30 km/h 0.4 mm High 37
2 Nov 33.6 °C 26 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
3 Nov 32.9 °C 29 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
4 Nov 34.2 °C 25 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
5 Nov 32.2 °C 34 % 32 km/h 0.1 mm High 36
6 Nov 32.8 °C 29 % 31 km/h 0.3 mm High 34
7 Nov 33.2 °C 33 % 31 km/h 0.7 mm High 29
8 Nov 32.1 °C 38 % 31 km/h 0.8 mm High 25
9 Nov 34.1 °C 29 % 33 km/h 0.3 mm High 32
10 Nov 34.1 °C 33 % 33 km/h 0.5 mm High 33
11 Nov 33.9 °C 30 % 31 km/h 0.6 mm High 32
12 Nov 33.9 °C 34 % 29 km/h 2.2 mm Moderate 18
13 Nov 34.0 °C 27 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
14 Nov 36.0 °C 24 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
15 Nov 35.5 °C 22 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
16 Nov 34.1 °C 28 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
17 Nov 33.7 °C 33 % 28 km/h 0.3 mm High 34
18 Nov 32.0 °C 37 % 29 km/h 1.5 mm Moderate 18
19 Nov 33.8 °C 32 % 30 km/h 1.8 mm Moderate 18
20 Nov 35.3 °C 28 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
21 Nov 36.3 °C 29 % 29 km/h 0.2 mm High 33
22 Nov 34.2 °C 34 % 35 km/h 1.0 mm High 24
23 Nov 33.7 °C 38 % 30 km/h 1.7 mm Moderate 17
24 Nov after 31.3 °C 43 % 32 km/h 3.4 mm Low 7

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 36.2, a minimum humidity of 28% and 32 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 50.

FWI at the start 36.2
Minimum humidity 28 %
Days without rain 32
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Kilombero fire, November 2021
7,273 ha 12 days FWI 35.6 Min. humidity 25 % 28 km away, in 2021

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

10 days
median duration
4,332 ha
median area
8 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.7 mm
rain at the end (median; 25 of 50 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (5,643 ha against a median of 4,332 ha) and lasted 28 days, against 10 days.

In 25 of 50, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.7 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

3.4 mmfirst rain
24 Novthe day after it ended
37km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 23 Nov, and on 24 Nov 3.4 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 25 of 50, with a median of 2.7 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 20 Oct 2022
After · 30 Nov 2022

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 12 November 2022 the air beside the fire reached 220 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 74: 4.9 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak220 µg/m³
Days over the guideline18 days
PM10315 µg/m³
Optical depth2.62
29 Oct4 Nov10 Nov16 Nov22 Nov
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 261Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Tanzania

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Kilombero fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 27 October 2022 to 23 November 2022 (28 days). The perimeter dates it from 31 October 2022 to 21 November 2022.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 5,643 hectares (56.4 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Kilombero (5,688 ha, 0.4 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 36.3 °C, humidity dropped to 22 % and gusts hit 37 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 39, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Tanzania (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 50. Their median duration was 10 days and their median area 4,332 ha; 8 % went past 10,000 ha. In 25 of 50, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.7 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 21 November 2022 → 23 November 2022.
  2. Start date: 31 October 2022 → 27 October 2022.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 31 October 2022 to 21 November 2022. 261 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.