Burned area
satellite only7,463ha
Perimeter published by GWIS (Copernicus).
- Source
- GWIS (Copernicus)
- Date
- 6 Sept 2023 – 28 Sept 2023
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page to compare it with.
ZM · Zambia · –
Kasama fire, 6 September 2023 Chilubi, Luwingu
Out · last detection 28 Sept 2023, 11:39 UTC
The fire started on 6 September 2023 in Kasama, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 23 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 7,463 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.
It is the 88th largest in Northern since 2016 (of 437 with a page). Number 35 in Zambia in 2023, of 165.
Use this data
Compare with…
Use this data
Fire page data · version 2026-11-15matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
When copying, the sentence is
Tick the figures you want: they make up the lede and the CSV.
Duration by satellite
satellite only23days
6 Sept 2023 to 28 Sept 2023: first and last day with fire on the page.
- Source
- GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
- Date
- last detection: 28 Sept 2023, 11:39 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only6 Sept 2023
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
- Source
- GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
- Date
- 6 Sept 2023
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page, so the alert time and the cause are not known here.
Hotspots
satellite only386
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 97 MW.
- Source
- NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP)
- Date
- 6 Sept 2023 – 28 Sept 2023
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only1,157MW
Total radiative power on 21 September 2023; hotspots that day: 60.
- Source
- NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
- Date
- 21 Sept 2023
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model34.1FWI · high
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 60.
- Source
- WorldFires calculation (Canadian FWI system)
- Date
- 6 Sept 2023, local noon
- Model
- ERA5 0,25° (ECMWF · Copernicus C3S) · Open-Meteo.com
+− cross-check
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings
Weather during the fire
model33.9°C · 14% RH
High of 33.9 °C and minimum humidity of 14% on 21 September 2023; gusts of 54 km/h on 13 September 2023.
- Source
- weather model at the fire’s grid cell
- Date
- 6 Sept 2023 – 28 Sept 2023
- Model
- ERA5 0,25° (ECMWF · Copernicus C3S) · Open-Meteo.com
+− cross-check
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
This page’s change log has been kept since 24 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
-
logName: Chilubi → Kasama.
-
· reconstructed weatherWeather and FWI computed from the ERA5 reanalysis
-
logLast day with fire: 21 September 2023 → 28 September 2023.
-
logStart date: 12 September 2023 → 6 September 2023.
Area logged each night
Move the slider to see which area the page published each day.
Versioned permanent link
https://worldfires.org/en/fire/kasama-2023-09-7?v=2026-11-15A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
CSV for this fire kasama-2023-09-7.csv · daily, no individual hotspots
| fecha | focos_viirs | frp_mw | tmax_c | tmin_c | hr_min_pct | viento_max_kmh | racha_max_kmh | precip_mm | fwi | clase_fwi | dentro_del_incendio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-06 | 15 | 248 | 32 | 16.3 | 25 | 9.3 | 24.1 | 0 | 34.1 | alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-07 | 27 | 595 | 32.3 | 20 | 22 | 12.5 | 26.6 | 0 | 37 | alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-08 | 11 | 143 | 31.5 | 18.7 | 21 | 18.1 | 34.9 | 0 | 45.7 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-09 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 17.7 | 20 | 17.7 | 34.2 | 0 | 47.4 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-10 | 3 | 56 | 30.6 | 16.7 | 24 | 14.5 | 33.1 | 0 | 43.9 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-11 | 0 | 0 | 32.3 | 18.5 | 25 | 10.1 | 26.3 | 0 | 39.2 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-12 | 26 | 500 | 33.4 | 19.1 | 21 | 19 | 33.5 | 0 | 45.8 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-13 | 35 | 791 | 30 | 21.9 | 31 | 26.5 | 53.6 | 0 | 67.3 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-14 | 2 | 39 | 28.5 | 18.6 | 33 | 24.1 | 50.8 | 0 | 51.4 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-15 | 38 | 698 | 30.8 | 18.8 | 28 | 16.2 | 37.4 | 0 | 44.9 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-16 | 28 | 280 | 32.4 | 17.8 | 19 | 14.9 | 29.5 | 0 | 38.9 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2 | 11 | 33.1 | 16.1 | 20 | 12.3 | 27.7 | 0 | 42 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-18 | 44 | 388 | 33.1 | 18.7 | 19 | 20.3 | 38.5 | 0 | 54.7 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-19 | 47 | 497 | 32.5 | 19.1 | 22 | 19.6 | 34.6 | 0 | 49.2 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-20 | 32 | 163 | 33 | 17.3 | 18 | 14.8 | 27 | 0 | 39.7 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-21 | 60 | 1,157 | 33.9 | 20.3 | 14 | 18.2 | 35.6 | 0 | 52.6 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-22 | 6 | 57 | 32.8 | 20.8 | 21 | 18.8 | 38.9 | 0 | 62.2 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-23 | 2 | 15 | 32.9 | 19.2 | 19 | 17.2 | 35.3 | 0 | 53.4 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-24 | 1 | 7 | 33.1 | 19.9 | 23 | 16.9 | 34.6 | 0 | 49.9 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-25 | 0 | 0 | 33.5 | 21.4 | 23 | 15.9 | 36.7 | 0 | 51 | extremo | 1 |
| 2023-09-26 | 1 | 3 | 33.6 | 19.3 | 20 | 12 | 29.9 | 0 | 47.9 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-27 | 3 | 21 | 33.6 | 20.2 | 23 | 10.5 | 27.4 | 0 | 48.7 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-28 | 3 | 19 | 33.7 | 22.4 | 25 | 16.3 | 30.6 | 0 | 49.8 | muy_alto | 1 |
| 2023-09-29 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 | 21.5 | 24 | 17.6 | 34.2 | 0 | 52.4 | extremo | 0 |
| 2023-09-30 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 19.9 | 22 | 19.1 | 33.8 | 0 | 47.4 | muy_alto | 0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0 | 0 | 34.6 | 20.1 | 17 | 19.4 | 36.7 | 0 | 41.4 | muy_alto | 0 |
| 2023-10-02 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 21.8 | 15 | 24.7 | 48.2 | 0 | 82.1 | muy_extremo | 0 |
| 2023-10-03 | 0 | 0 | 30.9 | 21.8 | 27 | 24.3 | 52.6 | 0 | 66.1 | extremo | 0 |
| 2023-10-04 | 0 | 0 | 31.8 | 19.3 | 25 | 18.5 | 39.6 | 0 | 54.6 | extremo | 0 |
| 2023-10-05 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 20.6 | 24 | 20 | 40.7 | 0 | 52.4 | extremo | 0 |
| 2023-10-06 | 0 | 0 | 33.8 | 20.8 | 23 | 18.5 | 37.4 | 0 | 48.9 | muy_alto | 0 |
| 2023-10-07 | 0 | 0 | 34.4 | 22.8 | 23 | 16.9 | 33.8 | 0 | 46.6 | muy_alto | 0 |
| 2023-10-08 | 0 | 0 | 35.6 | 20.9 | 14 | 18.7 | 34.2 | 0 | 48.8 | muy_alto | 0 |
It is generated in your browser from this page’s data: one file per fire, aggregated by day and without individual hotspots.
Live widget for your story
It updates itself while the fire is still active and links to this page. Free, with the attribution shown at the bottom.
Sources for this page: GWIS (Copernicus), NASA FIRMS (VIIRS), ERA5 (ECMWF/Copernicus C3S) · Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Open-Meteo.com · How we build fire pages: methodology
- Burnt area
- 7,463ha
- GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
- Duration
- 23days
- 6 Sept 2023 – 28 Sept 2023
- Municipalities hit
- 2
- districts
- Started on
- 6 Sept
- 2023
- Heat detections
- 386
- in a single hotspot: 97 MW
- Danger at start
- 34
- High · FWI index
- Average daily power
- 284MW
- detected power per day, on average
Where it burned
HOTSPOTS BY DAY
6 Sept28 Sept
28 Sept 2023
How it evolved, day by day
6 Sept
12 Sept
16 Sept
21 Sept
24 Sept
Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.
The weather it burned in
34°high
54km/h · peak gust
14%lowest humidity
It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.
This area had burned before
98% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 3,698 ha in 2016, 4,772 ha in 2017, 2,042 ha in 2018, 2,393 ha in 2019, 3,312 ha in 2020, 2,809 ha in 2021, 4,937 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 7,328 ha that had burned before.
- 3,649 ha Luwingu fire, September 2017 8,095 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 2,627 ha Chilubi fire, September 2022 4,547 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 1,959 ha Chilubi fire, September 2016 10,104 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 1,765 ha Chilubi fire, September 2021 3,582 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 1,019 ha Chilubi fire, September 2021 8,766 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 872 ha Chilubi fire, September 2022 3,192 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 351 ha Kasama fire, August 2019 25,217 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
- 259 ha Chilubi fire, September 2019 4,727 ha in total; the hectares shown are those it shares with this fire
How big is it?
London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).
Paris boundary: geoBoundaries · Institut national de l'information géographique et forestière (IGN-F) (Etalab Open License 2.0).
Madrid boundary: geoBoundaries · Open Data ESRI, IGN Central Registry of Cartography Area (CC BY 4.0).
Berlin boundary: geoBoundaries · Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (dl-de/by-2-0).
This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.
What happened to each town
-
6,974 ha1.3 %
-
537 ha0.1 %
Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
The weather day by day
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia
| Day | High | Min. humidity | Peak gust | Rain | Danger (FWI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept | 32.0 °C | 25 % | 24 km/h | 0.0 mm | High 34 |
| 7 Sept | 32.3 °C | 22 % | 27 km/h | 0.0 mm | High 37 |
| 8 Sept | 31.5 °C | 21 % | 35 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 46 |
| 9 Sept | 31.0 °C | 20 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 47 |
| 10 Sept | 30.6 °C | 24 % | 33 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 44 |
| 11 Sept | 32.3 °C | 25 % | 26 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 39 |
| 12 Sept | 33.4 °C | 21 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 46 |
| 13 Sept | 30.0 °C | 31 % | 54 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 67 |
| 14 Sept | 28.5 °C | 33 % | 51 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 51 |
| 15 Sept | 30.8 °C | 28 % | 37 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 45 |
| 16 Sept | 32.4 °C | 19 % | 30 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 39 |
| 17 Sept | 33.1 °C | 20 % | 28 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 42 |
| 18 Sept | 33.1 °C | 19 % | 38 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 55 |
| 19 Sept | 32.5 °C | 22 % | 35 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 49 |
| 20 Sept | 33.0 °C | 18 % | 27 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 40 |
| 21 Sept | 33.9 °C | 14 % | 36 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 53 |
| 22 Sept | 32.8 °C | 21 % | 39 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 62 |
| 23 Sept | 32.9 °C | 19 % | 35 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 53 |
| 24 Sept | 33.1 °C | 23 % | 35 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 50 |
| 25 Sept | 33.5 °C | 23 % | 37 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 51 |
| 26 Sept | 33.6 °C | 20 % | 30 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 48 |
| 27 Sept | 33.6 °C | 23 % | 27 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 49 |
| 28 Sept | 33.7 °C | 25 % | 31 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 50 |
| 29 Sept after | 33.3 °C | 24 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 52 |
| 30 Sept after | 34.0 °C | 22 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 47 |
| 1 Oct after | 34.6 °C | 17 % | 37 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 41 |
| 2 Oct after | 34.5 °C | 15 % | 48 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very extreme 82 |
| 3 Oct after | 30.9 °C | 27 % | 53 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 66 |
| 4 Oct after | 31.8 °C | 25 % | 40 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 55 |
| 5 Oct after | 33.0 °C | 24 % | 41 km/h | 0.0 mm | Extreme 52 |
| 6 Oct after | 33.8 °C | 23 % | 37 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 49 |
| 7 Oct after | 34.4 °C | 23 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 47 |
| 8 Oct after | 35.6 °C | 14 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Very high 49 |
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 34.1, a minimum humidity of 25% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 26.
FWI at the start
34.1
Minimum humidity
25 %
Days without rain
60+
this fire
chosen twins
rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
This fire · Kasama fire, 6 September 2023
7,463 ha
23 days
FWI 34.1
Min. humidity 25 %
Luwingu fire, August 2024
9,581 ha
12 days
FWI 34.9
Min. humidity 25 %
44 km away, in 2024
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.
Chilubi fire, September 2019
4,727 ha
18 days
FWI 34.8
Min. humidity 24 %
8 km away, in 2019
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 14.9 mm on 1 Oct.
Shiwang'Andu fire, September 2016
29,231 ha
26 days
FWI 33.8
Min. humidity 25 %
109 km away, in 2016
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.
Kanchibiya fire, August 2022
7,157 ha
13 days
FWI 33.2
Min. humidity 25 %
87 km away, in 2022
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.
Kanchibiya fire, August 2024
5,776 ha
18 days
FWI 35.0
Min. humidity 26 %
72 km away, in 2024
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.
What happened to them
- 16 days
- median duration
- 4,748 ha
- median area
- 12 %
- went past 10,000 ha
- 8.5 mm
- rain at the end (median; 2 of 26 had it)
It was 1.6 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 23 days, against 16 days.
Only 6 of its 26 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 24 of 26, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 8.5 mm.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How it ended
—first rain
—no rain in ten days
54km/h · max. gust
It was considered over on 28 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 2 of 26, with a median of 8.5 mm.
Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
How a twin is chosen
- Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
- Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
- Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
- Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
- They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
Before and after, from space
Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.
↔
Before · 30 Aug 2023
After · 5 Oct 2023
Sentinel-2 did not pass over on that day. Try another date, or use false colour, which is daily.
If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.
The smoke
CAMS · CopernicusOn 10 September 2023 the air beside the fire reached 87 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 42: 2.8 times the WHO daily guideline (15).
PM2.5 peak87 µg/m³
Days over the guideline7 days
PM10125 µg/m³
Optical depth1.69
WHO 15
10 Sept13 Sept16 Sept19 Sept22 Sept
Good
Fair
Moderate
Poor
Very poor
Extremely poor
Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
Detections table · 386Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV
Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
| Date and time | Satellite | FRP (MW) | Lat | Lon |
|---|
Other fires nearby
- 26,774 haChilubiSeptember 2024 · 19 days · 3 km away
- 398,588 haLuwingu18 August 2026 · 42 days · 11 km away
- 24,986 haKasama2 September 2021 · 16 days · 20 km away
- 90,759 haKasama17 August 2025 · 41 days · 24 km away
- 25,217 haKasama26 August 2019 · 23 days · 24 km away
- 22,834 haKasama27 August 2016 · 28 days · 24 km away
Frequently asked questions
- How long did the Kasama fire last?
- According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 6 September 2023 to 28 September 2023 (23 days). The perimeter dates it from 12 September 2023 to 21 September 2023.
- How much area did it burn?
- The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 7,463 hectares (74.6 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
- Which municipalities burned?
- The fire entered 2 municipalities: Chilubi (6,974 ha, 1.3 %); Luwingu (537 ha, 0.1 %).
- What was the weather like?
- During the fire the temperature reached 33.9 °C, humidity dropped to 14 % and gusts hit 54 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 67, class Extreme.
- Where does this data come from?
- From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
- How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
- Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 26. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 4,748 ha; 12 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 6 of its 26 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 24 of 26, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 8.5 mm.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
Satellite cross-check
History of this page · 3 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
- Name: Chilubi → Kasama.
- Last day with fire: 21 September 2023 → 28 September 2023.
- Start date: 12 September 2023 → 6 September 2023.
RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version
Does something look wrong on this page?
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
Report an error
How we know this
- Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
- Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 12 September 2023 to 21 September 2023. 386 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
- We have not matched this page with any official record.
- Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
Where this data comes from
The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.