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BW · Botswana · –

Ghanzi fire, 24 October 2021 Ghanzi

Out · last detection 25 Oct 2021, 12:58 UTC

The fire started on 24 October 2021 in Ghanzi, Botswana, and satellites saw it burning for 3 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 7,975 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 80th largest in Ghanzi since 2016 (of 416 with a page). Number 94 in Botswana in 2021, of 406.

Compare with…
Burnt area
7,975ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
3days
24 Oct 2021 – 26 Oct 2021
Municipalities hit
1
subdistricts
Started on
24 Oct
2021
Heat detections
209
in a single hotspot: 188 MW
Danger at start
58
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
8.1GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 24 Oct26 Oct

How it evolved, day by day

25 Oct 2021 · 8,085 MW · 209

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

36°high
54km/h · peak gust
8%lowest humidity

It had gone 15 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.5 mm on 27 Oct.

This area had burned before

16% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,203 ha in 2019, 109 ha in 2020.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 5% of the area of London (80 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Ghanzi where it started
    8,046 ha reached on 25 Oct
    0.1 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 63 % of the area in Botswana

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
24 Oct 35.5 °C 8 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
25 Oct 34.2 °C 27 % 54 km/h 5.4 mm High 24
26 Oct 33.6 °C 29 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
27 Oct after 30.1 °C 38 % 52 km/h 1.5 mm High 25

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 58.4, a minimum humidity of 8% and 15 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 17.

FWI at the start 58.4
Minimum humidity 8 %
Days without rain 15
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Ghanzi fire, August 2022
2,006 ha 1 day FWI 59.0 Min. humidity 9 % 138 km away, in 2022

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

3 days
median duration
2,600 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
4.1 mm
rain at the end (median; 4 of 17 had it)

It was 3.1 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 3 days, against 3 days.

Only 2 of its 17 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 13 of 17, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 4.1 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.5 mmfirst rain
27 Octthe day after it ended
54km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 26 Oct, and on 27 Oct 1.5 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 4 of 17, with a median of 4.1 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 17 Oct 2021
After · 2 Nov 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 209Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Botswana

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Ghanzi fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 24 October 2021 to 26 October 2021 (3 days). The perimeter dates it from 25 October 2021 to 25 October 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 7,975 hectares (79.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Ghanzi (8,046 ha, 0.1 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 35.5 °C, humidity dropped to 8 % and gusts hit 54 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 58, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Botswana (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 17. Their median duration was 3 days and their median area 2,600 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. Only 2 of its 17 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 13 of 17, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 4.1 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 25 October 2021 → 26 October 2021.
  2. Start date: 25 October 2021 → 24 October 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 25 October 2021 to 25 October 2021. 209 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.