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BW · Botswana · –

Ghanzi fire, 18 September 2021 Ghanzi

Out · last detection 29 Sept 2021, 12:45 UTC

The fire started on 18 September 2021 in Ghanzi, Botswana, and satellites saw it burning for 12 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 12,188 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 50th largest in Ghanzi since 2016 (of 416 with a page). Number 50 in Botswana in 2021, of 406.

Burnt area
12,188ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
12days
18 Sept 2021 – 29 Sept 2021
Municipalities hit
1
subdistricts
Started on
18 Sept
2021
Heat detections
439
in a single hotspot: 126 MW
Danger at start
54
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
650MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 18 Sept29 Sept
29 Sept 2021

How it evolved, day by day

18 Sept 2021 · 9 MW · 1 20 Sept 2021 · 1 MW · 1 21 Sept 2021 · 100 MW · 50 22 Sept 2021 · 163 MW · 20 23 Sept 2021 · 1 MW · 1 25 Sept 2021 · 8 MW · 7 26 Sept 2021 · 1,036 MW · 79 27 Sept 2021 · 1,995 MW · 121 28 Sept 2021 · 1,273 MW · 74 29 Sept 2021 · 1,909 MW · 85
18 Sept 21 Sept 23 Sept 27 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

37°high
43km/h · peak gust
7%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.1 mm on 30 Sept.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 7.7% of the area of London (122 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Ghanzi where it started
    12,276 ha reached on 18 Sept
    0.1 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 71 % of the area in Botswana

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
18 Sept 28.3 °C 16 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
19 Sept 30.3 °C 30 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
20 Sept 34.2 °C 14 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 62
21 Sept 32.4 °C 9 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
22 Sept 29.7 °C 15 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
23 Sept 30.4 °C 23 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
24 Sept 33.0 °C 17 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
25 Sept 35.4 °C 7 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 71
26 Sept 35.6 °C 13 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
27 Sept 35.4 °C 11 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72
28 Sept 36.5 °C 10 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 75
29 Sept 37.3 °C 11 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 82
30 Sept after 34.2 °C 24 % 58 km/h 1.1 mm Very extreme 95

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 54.0, a minimum humidity of 16% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 15.

FWI at the start 54.0
Minimum humidity 16 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Ghanzi fire, September 2022
2,822 ha 5 days FWI 53.5 Min. humidity 15 % 52 km away, in 2022

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

4 days
median duration
4,484 ha
median area
7 %
went past 10,000 ha
—
rain at the end (median; 0 of 15 had it)

It was 2.7 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 12 days, against 4 days.

Only 1 of its 15 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.1 mmfirst rain
30 Septthe day after it ended
43km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 29 Sept, and on 30 Sept 1.1 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. None of its 15 twins had rain when they ended.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 11 Sept 2021
After · 6 Oct 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 439Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Botswana

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Ghanzi fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 18 September 2021 to 29 September 2021 (12 days). The perimeter dates it from 25 September 2021 to 29 September 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 12,188 hectares (121.9 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Ghanzi (12,276 ha, 0.1 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 37.3 °C, humidity dropped to 7 % and gusts hit 43 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 82, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Botswana (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 15. Their median duration was 4 days and their median area 4,484 ha; 7 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 1 of its 15 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 25 September 2021 → 18 September 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 25 September 2021 to 29 September 2021. 439 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.