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BW · Botswana · –

Gemsbok fire, 29 September 2021 Gemsbok

Out · last detection 6 Oct 2021, 12:14 UTC

The fire started on 29 September 2021 in Gemsbok, Botswana, and satellites saw it burning for 8 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 6,496 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 102th largest in Kgalagadi since 2016 (of 378 with a page). Number 116 in Botswana in 2021, of 406.

Burnt area
6,496ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
8days
29 Sept 2021 – 6 Oct 2021
Municipalities hit
1
subdistricts
Started on
29 Sept
2021
Heat detections
228
in a single hotspot: 54 MW
Danger at start
57
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
252MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 29 Sept6 Oct
6 Oct 2021

How it evolved, day by day

29 Sept 2021 · 190 MW · 74 30 Sept 2021 · 633 MW · 63 1 Oct 2021 · 272 MW · 27 2 Oct 2021 · 132 MW · 14 3 Oct 2021 · 130 MW · 18 4 Oct 2021 · 584 MW · 25 5 Oct 2021 · 40 MW · 3 6 Oct 2021 · 39 MW · 4
30 Sept 3 Oct 5 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

35°high
39km/h · peak gust
5%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 4.1% of the area of London (65 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Gemsbok where it started
    6,475 ha reached on 29 Sept
    0.2 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 63 % of the area in Botswana 60 days without rain: 71 % of the area in Botswana

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
29 Sept 32.3 °C 12 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
30 Sept 33.8 °C 9 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
1 Oct 28.3 °C 10 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 63
2 Oct 23.8 °C 13 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
3 Oct 25.2 °C 14 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
4 Oct 30.7 °C 8 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
5 Oct 34.8 °C 7 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 66
6 Oct 35.1 °C 5 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
7 Oct after 34.2 °C 7 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
8 Oct after 32.8 °C 7 % 25 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
9 Oct after 31.0 °C 7 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68
10 Oct after 31.7 °C 8 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
11 Oct after 33.0 °C 16 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72
12 Oct after 34.4 °C 12 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 67
13 Oct after 37.0 °C 10 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 67
14 Oct after 36.5 °C 7 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
15 Oct after 36.6 °C 9 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 81
16 Oct after 23.1 °C 14 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 66

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 56.6, a minimum humidity of 12% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 35.

FWI at the start 56.6
Minimum humidity 12 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Gemsbok fire, September 2021
13,831 ha 7 days FWI 56.6 Min. humidity 12 % 105 km away, in 2021

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

4 days
median duration
3,203 ha
median area
11 %
went past 10,000 ha
7.1 mm
rain at the end (median; 2 of 35 had it)

It was 2.0 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 8 days, against 4 days.

Only 6 of its 35 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 33 of 35, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 7.1 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
39km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 6 Oct, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 2 of 35, with a median of 7.1 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 22 Sept 2021
After · 13 Oct 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 228Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Botswana

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Gemsbok fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 29 September 2021 to 6 October 2021 (8 days). The perimeter dates it from 29 September 2021 to 4 October 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 6,496 hectares (65.0 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Gemsbok (6,475 ha, 0.2 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 35.1 °C, humidity dropped to 5 % and gusts hit 39 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 66, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Botswana (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 35. Their median duration was 4 days and their median area 3,203 ha; 11 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 6 of its 35 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 33 of 35, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 7.1 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 4 October 2021 → 6 October 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 29 September 2021 to 4 October 2021. 228 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.