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Birnin Gwari fire, 10 January 2023 Birnin Gwari, Rafi

Out · last detection 26 Jan 2023, 13:21 UTC

The fire started on 10 January 2023 in Birnin Gwari, Nigeria, and satellites saw it burning for 17 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 2,425 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 40th largest in Kaduna since 2016 (of 68 with a page). Number 109 in Nigeria in 2023, of 161.

The power measured by the satellite is low (27.8 MW in the strongest hotspot), more typical of grass or stubble burning, or a slow surface fire, than of a large crown fire.

Burnt area
2,425ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
17days
10 Jan 2023 – 26 Jan 2023
Municipalities hit
2
local government areas
Started on
10 Jan
2023
Heat detections
86
in a single hotspot: 28 MW
Danger at start
53
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
54MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 10 Jan26 Jan
26 Jan 2023

How it evolved, day by day

12 Jan 2023 · 23 MW · 5 13 Jan 2023 · 13 MW · 2 14 Jan 2023 · 290 MW · 27 15 Jan 2023 · 72 MW · 16 16 Jan 2023 · 23 MW · 4 17 Jan 2023 · 167 MW · 19 18 Jan 2023 · 33 MW · 7 19 Jan 2023 · 2 MW · 2 21 Jan 2023 · 4 MW · 1 22 Jan 2023 · 5 MW · 1 24 Jan 2023 · 2 MW · 1 26 Jan 2023 · 7 MW · 1
14 Jan 18 Jan 22 Jan

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

37°high
42km/h · peak gust
15%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

97% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 172 ha in 2019, 1,650 ha in 2021, 2,232 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 2,346 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 1.5% of the area of London (24 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Birnin Gwari where it started
    2,332 ha reached on 12 Jan
    0.4 %
  2. 105 ha reached on 12 Jan
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area2.6 ha
Residents≈ 500

Inside the perimeter there were about 2.6 hectares of built-up land and about 500 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 42 % of the area in Nigeria

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
10 Jan 33.0 °C 19 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
11 Jan 32.0 °C 20 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
12 Jan 32.9 °C 20 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
13 Jan 33.3 °C 19 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
14 Jan 33.7 °C 15 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
15 Jan 33.1 °C 18 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
16 Jan 33.0 °C 17 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
17 Jan 33.3 °C 17 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
18 Jan 34.0 °C 19 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
19 Jan 35.0 °C 20 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
20 Jan 35.5 °C 19 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
21 Jan 35.7 °C 20 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
22 Jan 35.7 °C 19 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
23 Jan 36.4 °C 20 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
24 Jan 36.8 °C 20 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
25 Jan 37.4 °C 15 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
26 Jan 36.9 °C 15 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
27 Jan after 37.1 °C 20 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
28 Jan after 35.1 °C 31 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
29 Jan after 35.5 °C 14 % 17 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
30 Jan after 36.1 °C 13 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
31 Jan after 37.9 °C 13 % 25 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
1 Feb after 37.6 °C 13 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
2 Feb after 36.1 °C 16 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
3 Feb after 37.7 °C 17 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
4 Feb after 38.7 °C 15 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
5 Feb after 38.7 °C 14 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 52.8, a minimum humidity of 19% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 26.

FWI at the start 52.8
Minimum humidity 19 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mariga fire, January 2025
4,004 ha 10 days FWI 52.7 Min. humidity 19 % 83 km away, in 2025

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

16 days
median duration
3,011 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
—
rain at the end (median; 0 of 26 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (2,425 ha against a median of 3,011 ha) and lasted 17 days, against 16 days.

In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
42km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 26 Jan, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. None of its 26 twins had rain when they ended.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 3 Jan 2023
After · 2 Feb 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 11 January 2023 the air beside the fire reached 74 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 48: 3.2 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak74 µg/m³
Days over the guideline13 days
PM10127 µg/m³
Optical depth0.62
10 Jan13 Jan16 Jan19 Jan22 Jan
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 86Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Nigeria

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Birnin Gwari fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 10 January 2023 to 26 January 2023 (17 days). The perimeter dates it from 12 January 2023 to 19 January 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 2,425 hectares (24.2 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Birnin Gwari (2,332 ha, 0.4 %); Rafi (105 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 37.4 °C, humidity dropped to 15 % and gusts hit 42 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 53, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Nigeria (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 26. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 3,011 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. In none of them did 1 mm fall in the ten days after the end: they all went out without rain.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 19 January 2023 → 26 January 2023.
  2. Start date: 12 January 2023 → 10 January 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 12 January 2023 to 19 January 2023. 86 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.