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MG · Madagascar · –

Antsalova fire, 1 November 2026 Antsalova

Burning · last detection 10 Nov 2026, 11:12 UTC

The fire started on 1 November 2026 in Antsalova, Madagascar, and satellites saw it burning for 10 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 2,618 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

Number 68 in Madagascar in 2026, of 124.

GWIS near-real-time perimeter, from the layer that changed in August 2025: this fire is not compared with fires from earlier years, because since then the GWIS layer gives more and larger perimeters.

Compare with…

Suggestions: Antsalova · 2025Antsalova · 2026Antsalova · 2026Belo Sur Tsiribihina · 2026

Is it still active?

Satellites detected fire on 10 Nov 2026, 11:12 UTC. Everything suggests it is still burning. Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.

Wind, humidity and rain for the next 72 h

Burnt area
2,618ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
10days
1 Nov 2026 – 10 Nov 2026
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
1 Nov
2026
Heat detections
44
in a single hotspot: 86 MW
Danger at start
14
Moderate · FWI index
Average daily power
121MW
detected power per day, on average

The next 72 hours

The wind is blowing from the south-east and pushing to the north-west; no sharp shifts are expected until Fri 13, 20:00.

ECMWF IFS 0.25° at the centre of the fire · computed 10 Nov 2026, 17:57 UTC

Wed 11, 08:00, local time

First useful rain: 2.4 mm in 6 h

Chance of rain up to 86 % in those hours. It can slow the fire at the surface, but that does not mean it will go out.

Checked, no warning: no wind shifts of more than 60° nights recover humidity (peaks of 98 % or more)

Hour by hour, local time

Tap the strip to see each hour

Mean wind Gusts where it blows to Relative humidity Night (8 pm to 8 am) Rain (mm) · chance in %

Where is it blowing? The next 48 h

geoBoundaries/Madagascar National Disaster Management Office (BNGRC), OCHA ROSA (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO))

At this hour

Places the fan reaches

    Is it heading my way?

    We compare your point with the fan for each hour. Your location never leaves your device.

    or tap the map

    This is not an official warning. It is a global model forecast with cells of about 25 km, at the centre of the fire: it cannot see valley winds or the winds the fire itself creates. The fan shows where the wind blows, not where the fire will spread. If in doubt, follow what the authorities say.

    Forecast: ECMWF IFS 0.25° (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), served by our own Open-Meteo instance; the chance of rain comes from the ECMWF ensemble. Variables: wind and gusts at 10 m, wind at 850 hPa, relative humidity and temperature at 2 m, rain. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).

    Fire: GWIS / Copernicus (reconstructed from VIIRS) (CC BY 4.0); hotspots from the last 24 h: VIIRS from NASA FIRMS. Boundaries: geoBoundaries/Madagascar National Disaster Management Office (BNGRC), OCHA ROSA (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)).

    How it is worked out: wind shift = a change of more than 60° in 6 h or less, with at least 15 km/h before and after; no overnight recovery = peak humidity between 8 pm and 8 am stays below 55 %; useful rain = 2 mm or more in 6 h. The fan opens 18° plus however much the wind varies within ±3 h and reaches 25 km beyond the edge of the fire: one model cell, not a rate of spread. Methodology

    Where it burned

    HOTSPOTS BY DAY 1 Nov10 Nov
    10 Nov 2026

    How it evolved, day by day

    1 Nov 2026 · 0 MW · 0 2 Nov 2026 · 0 MW · 0 3 Nov 2026 · 15 MW · 2 4 Nov 2026 · 13 MW · 2 5 Nov 2026 · 368 MW · 10 6 Nov 2026 · 182 MW · 15 7 Nov 2026 · 250 MW · 12 8 Nov 2026 · 3 MW · 1 9 Nov 2026 · 0 MW · 0 10 Nov 2026 · 18 MW · 2
    1 Nov 3 Nov 5 Nov 7 Nov 9 Nov

    Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

    The weather it burned in

    37°high
    43km/h · peak gust
    35%lowest humidity

    It had gone one day without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

    This area had burned before

    88% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 70 ha in 2021, 3,025 ha in 2025. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 2,304 ha that had burned before.

    How big is it?

    10 km
    It burned the equivalent of 1.7% of the area of London (26 km² against 1,583 km²).

    London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

    This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

    What happened to each town

    1. Antsalova where it started
      2,637 ha reached on 1 Nov
      0.4 %

    Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

    The weather day by day

    ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

    Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives

    Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
    1 Nov 32.5 °C 37 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 14
    2 Nov 33.5 °C 42 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 18
    3 Nov 33.8 °C 46 % 41 km/h 0.1 mm Moderate 18
    4 Nov 33.1 °C 49 % 42 km/h 2.8 mm Moderate 14
    5 Nov 34.2 °C 43 % 40 km/h 1.3 mm Low 11
    6 Nov 36.0 °C 42 % 32 km/h 1.1 mm Moderate 16
    7 Nov 35.8 °C 39 % 40 km/h 1.6 mm Moderate 17
    8 Nov 37.4 °C 35 % 40 km/h 0.2 mm High 22
    9 Nov 35.6 °C 45 % 36 km/h 1.7 mm Moderate 16
    10 Nov 32.8 °C 55 % 42 km/h 5.1 mm Low 6

    Before and after, from space

    Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

    Before · 25 Oct 2026
    After · 9 Nov 2026

    If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

    The smoke

    CAMS · Copernicus

    On 11 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 26 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 16: 1.1 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

    PM2.5 peak26 µg/m³
    Days over the guideline2 days
    PM1031 µg/m³
    Optical depth0.36
    11 Oct13 Oct15 Oct17 Oct19 Oct
    Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

    Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

    Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

    Detections table · 44Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
    ⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
    Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

    Other fires nearby

    All fires in Madagascar

    Frequently asked questions

    How long did the Antsalova fire last?
    According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 1 November 2026 to 10 November 2026 (10 days). The perimeter dates it from 2 November 2026 to 9 November 2026.
    How much area did it burn?
    The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 2,618 hectares (26.2 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
    Which municipalities burned?
    The fire only entered Antsalova (2,637 ha, 0.4 %).
    Is the Antsalova fire still active?
    Yes: satellites detected fire on 10 Nov 2026, 11:12 UTC. Check the emergency service for the official status.
    What was the weather like?
    During the fire the temperature reached 37.4 °C, humidity dropped to 35 % and gusts hit 43 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 22, class High.
    What weather is expected at the fire over the next 72 hours?
    The wind is blowing from the south-east and pushing to the north-west; no sharp shifts are expected until Fri 13, 20:00. First useful rain: 2.4 mm in 6 h (Wed 11, 08:00). Times are local time at the fire. ECMWF IFS forecast (Open-Meteo) computed 10 Nov 2026, 17:57 UTC; this is not an official warning.
    Where does this data come from?
    From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Madagascar (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.

    Where to verify it

    A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

    Satellite cross-check

    History of this page · 19 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
    1. Area: 2,550 → 2,618 ha.
    2. Mapped perimeter arrives: from ≈ 2,520 ha estimated from hotspots to 2,550 ha.
    3. Start date: 31 October 2026 → 1 November 2026.
    4. Area: ≈ 2,394 → ≈ 2,520 ha.
    5. Start date: 21 October 2026 → 31 October 2026.
    6. Area: ≈ 2,814 → ≈ 2,394 ha.
    7. Last day with fire: 24 October 2026 → 28 October 2026.
    8. Start date: 20 October 2026 → 21 October 2026.
    9. Area: ≈ 3,458 → ≈ 2,814 ha.
    10. Start date: 19 October 2026 → 20 October 2026.
    11. Area: ≈ 2,520 → ≈ 3,458 ha.
    12. Start date: 18 October 2026 → 19 October 2026.
    13. Area: ≈ 2,590 → ≈ 2,520 ha.
    14. Start date: 17 October 2026 → 18 October 2026.
    15. Area: ≈ 2,478 → ≈ 2,590 ha.
    16. Start date: 16 October 2026 → 17 October 2026.
    17. Area: ≈ 2,212 → ≈ 2,478 ha.
    18. Start date: 15 October 2026 → 16 October 2026.
    19. Name: Belo Sur Tsiribihina → Antsalova.

    RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

    Does something look wrong on this page?

    This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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    How we know this
    • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
    • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 2 November 2026 to 9 November 2026. 44 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
    • We have not matched this page with any official record.
    • Weather: ECMWF IFS model, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives.

    How we build fire pages: methodology

    Where this data comes from

    The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.