Burned area
satellite only3,590ha
Perimeter published by GWIS (Copernicus).
- Source
- GWIS (Copernicus)
- Date
- 27 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page to compare it with.
MG · Madagascar · –
Antsalova fire, 27 October 2026 Antsalova, Belo Sur Tsiribihina
Burning · last detection 13 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
The fire started on 27 October 2026 in Antsalova, Madagascar, and satellites saw it burning for 18 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 3,590 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.
Number 26 in Madagascar in 2026, of 125.
GWIS near-real-time perimeter, from the layer that changed in August 2025: this fire is not compared with fires from earlier years, because since then the GWIS layer gives more and larger perimeters.
The power measured by the satellite is low (29.7 MW in the strongest hotspot), more typical of grass or stubble burning, or a slow surface fire, than of a large crown fire.
Use this data
Compare with…
Use this data
Fire page data · version 2026-11-11matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
When copying, the sentence is
Tick the figures you want: they make up the lede and the CSV.
Duration by satellite
satellite only18days
From 27 Oct 2026 to today: still being detected.
- Source
- GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
- Date
- last detection: 13 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only27 Oct 2026
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
- Source
- GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
- Date
- 27 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page, so the alert time and the cause are not known here.
Hotspots
satellite only81
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 30 MW.
- Source
- NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP + NOAA-20)
- Date
- 27 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only127MW
Total radiative power on 28 October 2026; hotspots that day: 9.
- Source
- NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
- Date
- 28 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model4.2FWI · very low
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 8.
- Source
- WorldFires calculation (Canadian FWI system)
- Date
- 27 Oct 2026, local noon
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 0,25° · Open-Meteo.com · provisional
+− cross-check
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings
Weather during the fire
model29.4°C · 67% RH
High of 29.4 °C and minimum humidity of 67% on 27 October 2026; gusts of 40 km/h on 29 October 2026.
- Source
- weather model at the fire’s grid cell
- Date
- 27 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 0,25° · Open-Meteo.com · provisional
+− cross-check
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
Living inside
model≈ 400people
Estimated residents inside the perimeter and 0.88 ha of built-up area (100 m grid, epoch 2025).
- Source
- GHSL R2023A · JRC
- Date
- calculated on 11 November 2026
+− cross-check
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.
This page’s change log has been kept since 8 November 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
-
· reconstructed weatherWeather and FWI computed from the forecast (provisional until ERA5 arrives)
-
logArea: 3,503 → 3,590 ha.
-
· reconstructed GHSLPopulation and built-up area computed
-
logArea: 2,905 → 3,503 ha.
-
logArea: 2,377 → 2,905 ha.
-
logPage published (2,377 ha).
Area logged each night
Move the slider to see which area the page published each day.
Versioned permanent link
https://worldfires.org/en/fire/antsalova-2026-11-2?v=2026-11-11A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
CSV for this fire antsalova-2026-11-2.csv · daily, no individual hotspots
| fecha | focos_viirs | frp_mw | tmax_c | tmin_c | hr_min_pct | viento_max_kmh | racha_max_kmh | precip_mm | fwi | clase_fwi | dentro_del_incendio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 2 | 2 | 29.4 | 23.3 | 67 | 20.3 | 29.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | muy_bajo | 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | 9 | 127 | 29.2 | 25.4 | 69 | 26.6 | 36 | 4.1 | 5.9 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 22.4 | 78 | 26.4 | 40.3 | 30.3 | 0.6 | muy_bajo | 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | 0 | 0 | 26.5 | 22.1 | 55 | 26 | 37.1 | 4.6 | 0.8 | muy_bajo | 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | 3 | 8 | 27.3 | 25.1 | 52 | 23.3 | 33.1 | 0.9 | 4.4 | muy_bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 22.4 | 53 | 25.2 | 35.6 | 0 | 9.2 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | 2 | 26 | 27.5 | 23.2 | 60 | 27.5 | 38.2 | 0 | 9.1 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 | 12 | 27.3 | 24.6 | 70 | 25.3 | 33.5 | 0 | 9.2 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | 7 | 21 | 27.7 | 24.6 | 75 | 28 | 39.6 | 0 | 7.9 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 | 28 | 28 | 25.3 | 71 | 22.6 | 34.9 | 0 | 9.2 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-06 | 16 | 90 | 28.5 | 25.9 | 74 | 19.8 | 27.7 | 0 | 8.8 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-07 | 14 | 122 | 28.7 | 26 | 77 | 20.7 | 29.2 | 0 | 8.9 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-08 | 6 | 45 | 28.8 | 26.2 | 80 | 23.5 | 34.9 | 0 | 9.1 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-09 | 4 | 53 | 28.8 | 27.1 | 81 | 20.7 | 29.9 | 0 | 8.2 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-10 | 6 | 37 | 27.8 | 25.1 | 76 | 23 | 33.5 | 1.7 | 10.9 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | 1 | 27.9 | 23.5 | 70 | 23.3 | 32 | 1.1 | 5.3 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-12 | 2 | 21 | 28.1 | 24.4 | 65 | 22 | 29.9 | 0 | 9.3 | bajo | 1 |
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
It is generated in your browser from this page’s data: one file per fire, aggregated by day and without individual hotspots.
Live widget for your story
It updates itself while the fire is still active and links to this page. Free, with the attribution shown at the bottom.
Sources for this page: GWIS (Copernicus), NASA FIRMS (VIIRS), ECMWF IFS · Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), GHSL (JRC). Open-Meteo.com · How we build fire pages: methodology
Is it still active?
Satellites detected fire on 13 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC. Everything suggests it is still burning. Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
- Burnt area
- 3,590ha
- GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
- Duration
- 18days
- 27 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
- Municipalities hit
- 2
- districts
- Started on
- 27 Oct
- 2026
- Heat detections
- 81
- in a single hotspot: 30 MW
- Danger at start
- 4
- Very low · FWI index
- Average daily power
- 38MW
- detected power per day, on average
The next 72 hours
The wind is blowing from the south-west and pushing to the north-east; no sharp shifts are expected until Mon 16, 16:00.
ECMWF IFS 0.25° at the centre of the fire · computed 13 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC
Mon 16, 08:00, local time
First useful rain: 2.7 mm in 6 h
Chance of rain up to 89 % in those hours. It can slow the fire at the surface, but that does not mean it will go out.
Checked, no warning: no wind shifts of more than 60° nights recover humidity (peaks of 98 % or more)
Hour by hour, local time
Tap the strip to see each hour
Mean wind
Gusts
where it blows to
Relative humidity
Night (8 pm to 8 am)
Rain (mm) · chance in %
Where is it blowing? The next 48 h
geoBoundaries/Madagascar National Disaster Management Office (BNGRC), OCHA ROSA (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO))
At this hour
Places the fan reaches
Is it heading my way?
We compare your point with the fan for each hour. Your location never leaves your device.
or tap the mapThis is not an official warning. It is a global model forecast with cells of about 25 km, at the centre of the fire: it cannot see valley winds or the winds the fire itself creates. The fan shows where the wind blows, not where the fire will spread. If in doubt, follow what the authorities say.
Forecast: ECMWF IFS 0.25° (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), served by our own Open-Meteo instance; the chance of rain comes from the ECMWF ensemble. Variables: wind and gusts at 10 m, wind at 850 hPa, relative humidity and temperature at 2 m, rain. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).
Fire: GWIS / Copernicus (reconstructed from VIIRS) (CC BY 4.0); hotspots from the last 24 h: VIIRS from NASA FIRMS. Boundaries: geoBoundaries/Madagascar National Disaster Management Office (BNGRC), OCHA ROSA (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)).
How it is worked out: wind shift = a change of more than 60° in 6 h or less, with at least 15 km/h before and after; no overnight recovery = peak humidity between 8 pm and 8 am stays below 55 %; useful rain = 2 mm or more in 6 h. The fan opens 18° plus however much the wind varies within ±3 h and reaches 25 km beyond the edge of the fire: one model cell, not a rate of spread. Methodology
Where it burned
HOTSPOTS BY DAY
27 Oct13 Nov
13 Nov 2026
How it evolved, day by day
28 Oct
2 Nov
6 Nov
10 Nov
Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.
The weather it burned in
29°high
40km/h · peak gust
52%lowest humidity
It had gone 8 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.
This area had burned before
45% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 7 ha in 2021, 498 ha in 2023, 2,025 ha in 2025. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 1,614 ha that had burned before.
How big is it?
London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).
Paris boundary: geoBoundaries · Institut national de l'information géographique et forestière (IGN-F) (Etalab Open License 2.0).
Madrid boundary: geoBoundaries · Open Data ESRI, IGN Central Registry of Cartography Area (CC BY 4.0).
Berlin boundary: geoBoundaries · Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (dl-de/by-2-0).
This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.
What happened to each town
-
Antsalova where it started3,170 ha reached on 27 Oct0.5 %
-
444 ha reached on 27 Oct0.0 %
Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
People and buildings inside the perimeter
GHSL 2025Built-up area0.88 ha
Residents≈ 400
Inside the perimeter there were about 0.88 hectares of built-up land and about 400 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.
Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu
The weather day by day
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives
| Day | High | Min. humidity | Peak gust | Rain | Danger (FWI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct | 29.4 °C | 67 % | 29 km/h | 2.7 mm | Very low 4 |
| 28 Oct | 29.2 °C | 69 % | 36 km/h | 4.1 mm | Low 6 |
| 29 Oct | 26.7 °C | 78 % | 40 km/h | 30.3 mm | Very low 1 |
| 30 Oct | 26.5 °C | 55 % | 37 km/h | 4.6 mm | Very low 1 |
| 31 Oct | 27.3 °C | 52 % | 33 km/h | 0.9 mm | Very low 4 |
| 1 Nov | 27.0 °C | 53 % | 36 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 2 Nov | 27.5 °C | 60 % | 38 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 3 Nov | 27.3 °C | 70 % | 34 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 4 Nov | 27.7 °C | 75 % | 40 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 8 |
| 5 Nov | 28.0 °C | 71 % | 35 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 6 Nov | 28.5 °C | 74 % | 28 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 7 Nov | 28.7 °C | 77 % | 29 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 8 Nov | 28.8 °C | 80 % | 35 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
| 9 Nov | 28.8 °C | 81 % | 30 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 8 |
| 10 Nov | 27.8 °C | 76 % | 34 km/h | 1.7 mm | Low 11 |
| 11 Nov | 27.9 °C | 70 % | 32 km/h | 1.1 mm | Low 5 |
| 12 Nov | 28.1 °C | 65 % | 30 km/h | 0.0 mm | Low 9 |
Before and after, from space
Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.
↔
Before · 20 Oct 2026
After · 12 Nov 2026
Sentinel-2 did not pass over on that day. Try another date, or use false colour, which is daily.
If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.
The smoke
CAMS · CopernicusOn 26 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 21 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 16: 1.0 times the WHO daily guideline (15).
PM2.5 peak21 µg/m³
Days over the guideline1 day
PM1027 µg/m³
Optical depth0.48
WHO 15
25 Oct28 Oct31 Oct3 Nov6 Nov
Good
Fair
Moderate
Poor
Very poor
Extremely poor
Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
Detections table · 81Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV
Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
| Date and time | Satellite | FRP (MW) | Lat | Lon |
|---|
Other fires nearby
Frequently asked questions
- How long did the Antsalova fire last?
- According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 27 October 2026 to 13 November 2026 (18 days). The perimeter dates it from 3 November 2026 to 10 November 2026.
- How much area did it burn?
- The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 3,590 hectares (35.9 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
- Which municipalities burned?
- The fire entered 2 municipalities: Antsalova (3,170 ha, 0.5 %); Belo Sur Tsiribihina (444 ha, 0.0 %).
- Is the Antsalova fire still active?
- Yes: satellites detected fire on 13 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC. Check the emergency service for the official status.
- What was the weather like?
- During the fire the temperature reached 29.4 °C, humidity dropped to 52 % and gusts hit 40 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 11, class Low.
- What weather is expected at the fire over the next 72 hours?
- The wind is blowing from the south-west and pushing to the north-east; no sharp shifts are expected until Mon 16, 16:00. First useful rain: 2.7 mm in 6 h (Mon 16, 08:00). Times are local time at the fire. ECMWF IFS forecast (Open-Meteo) computed 13 Nov 2026, 13:53 UTC; this is not an official warning.
- Where does this data come from?
- From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Madagascar (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
Satellite cross-check
History of this page · 4 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 8 November 2026.
- Area: 3,503 → 3,590 ha.
- Area: 2,905 → 3,503 ha.
- Area: 2,377 → 2,905 ha.
- Page published (2,377 ha).
RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version
Does something look wrong on this page?
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
Report an error
How we know this
- Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
- Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 3 November 2026 to 10 November 2026. 81 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
- We have not matched this page with any official record.
- Weather: ECMWF IFS model, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives.
- Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.
Where this data comes from
The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.