Smoke today in Mapai
Today the average level of fine particles (PM2.5) in Mapai is 16 µg/m³, 1.0 times the WHO daily guideline (15 µg/m³). The peak of the coming days arrives on Sunday 8 at 18:00, with 20 µg/m³. It most likely comes mainly from this fire: Mabalane fire, October 2026, 56 km to the southeast (48 % of the upwind weight).
The next 4 days, hour by hour
Hourly forecast of fine particles in the Mapai cell, coloured by the WHO steps. The numbered green bands are the windows with the least smoke.
Where it most likely comes from
At 09:00 on Thursday 5, air reaches Mapai at 850 hPa (about 1,500 m) from the southeast, at 19 km/h. Move the hour on the strip above and the sector turns with the wind.
VIIRS hotspots from the last 24 hours; the latest at 4 Nov 2026, 23:58 UTC
Candidates
Upwind fires within 250 km, ranked by their weight in the smoke arriving at that hour.
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1Most likely: Mabalane fire, October 202648 %31,477 ha · since 28 October 2026 · about 285 hotspots and 1,974 MW FRP in 24 h inside its box · 56 km to the southeastOpen the fire page
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2Scattered hotspots without a fire page31 %423 hotspots and 2,455 MW FRP in 24 h · the nearest 9 km to the southeast · outside any active fire page
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3Mapai fire, 30 October 20268 %7,309 ha · since 30 October 2026 · about 57 hotspots and 272 MW FRP in 24 h inside its box · 43 km to the southeastOpen the fire page
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4Mabote fire, 24 October 20266 %9,011 ha · since 24 October 2026 · about 53 hotspots and 459 MW FRP in 24 h inside its box · 133 km to the eastOpen the fire page
There is no dispersion model behind this: it is an estimate. We add up the radiative power (FRP) of the last 24 hours of VIIRS hotspots lying against the wind at 850 hPa, weighted by distance. That is why we say “most likely” and show the whole list.
The 3 windows with the least smoke to air the house or go out
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1 · Friday 617:00–19:0010 µg/m³ on average · within the WHO guideline
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2 · Sunday 807:00–09:0010 µg/m³ on average · within the WHO guideline
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3 · Sunday 820:00–22:005 µg/m³ on average · within the WHO guideline
Between 7:00 and 22:00, future hours only, 2-hour blocks at least 4 hours apart. The WHO guideline is a 24-hour average: here it is only a reference.
The last time there was smoke like this
We are still gathering the history for this cell: the archive loads at night, a little at a time.
We do not give medical advice. To know what to do at these levels, follow the health authority: World Health Organization · Air quality and health. Our figures are a model forecast, not a measurement in your street.
How this page works
- Air quality: Copernicus CAMS served by our own Open-Meteo instance, in the city’s 0.1° cell (CAMS Europe at 0.1° where it covers; elsewhere the coarser 0.4° global model). Refreshed every hour.
- Wind: ECMWF IFS at 0.25°, at 850 hPa (about 1,500 m, the height at which smoke usually travels) and at 10 m. The arrival direction is the vector mean of the previous 6 hours.
- Likely source: VIIRS hotspots from the last 24 hours within 250 km (150 km in Europe) and within 40° of the wind direction, weighted FRP × cos(angle) × e^(−distance/120 km). Each hotspot goes to the active fire page whose box contains it; if none does, it counts as a scattered hotspot. With less than 30 MW upwind no fire is named.
- Smoke episode: today’s average above the WHO guideline (15 µg/m³) and, in Europe, at least 10 µg/m³ of PM10 that CAMS attributes to wildfires; outside Europe, at least 30 MW of fires upwind. To speak of “this episode” in the history it takes 7 days or more above the guideline. Outside Europe, those fires must also add up to a weight of at least 100 (FRP × cos × e^(−d/120)), and if desert dust makes up 50 % or more of today's PM10 it is not counted as smoke.
- History: daily mean and maximum PM2.5 since August 2022 from our CAMS archive, stored per cell.
- Health: the reference is the 2021 WHO air quality guideline (24-h PM2.5: 15 µg/m³; interim targets 25, 37.5, 50 and 75). We give no medical advice of our own.
Sources. Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS global and CAMS Europe) served by our own Open-Meteo instance, Open-Meteo.com data under CC BY 4.0. Wind: ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Active fires: NASA FIRMS, VIIRS (Suomi NPP, NOAA-20 and NOAA-21). Fire pages: EFFIS and GWIS (Copernicus, European Commission). Reference: 2021 WHO air quality guidelines. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · CAMS · NASA FIRMS
Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information (2026). Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of this information.