Smoke today in Ambanja
Today the average level of fine particles (PM2.5) in Ambanja is 20 µg/m³, 1.3 times the WHO daily guideline (15 µg/m³). The peak of the coming days arrives on Saturday 7 at 21:00, with 32 µg/m³. It most likely comes mainly from scattered hotspots upwind that are not part of any fire page (68 % of the weight), the nearest 60 km to the south. Among fires with a page, the one that weighs most is Mandritsara fire, 12 October 2026, 193 km away (12 %).
The next 4 days, hour by hour
Hourly forecast of fine particles in the Ambanja cell, coloured by the WHO steps. The numbered green bands are the windows with the least smoke.
Where it most likely comes from
At 10:00 on Thursday 5, air reaches Ambanja at 850 hPa (about 1,500 m) from the south, at 16 km/h. Move the hour on the strip above and the sector turns with the wind.
VIIRS hotspots from the last 24 hours; the latest at 5 Nov 2026, 02:42 UTC
Candidates
Upwind fires within 250 km, ranked by their weight in the smoke arriving at that hour.
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1Most likely: Scattered hotspots without a fire page68 %417 hotspots and 3,116 MW FRP in 24 h · the nearest 60 km to the south · outside any active fire page
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2Mandritsara fire, 12 October 202612 %9,363 ha · since 12 October 2026 · about 34 hotspots and 666 MW FRP in 24 h inside its box · 193 km to the southOpen the fire page
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3Analalava fire, 25 October 20268 %≈ 2,352 ha · since 25 October 2026 · about 35 hotspots and 172 MW FRP in 24 h inside its box · 77 km to the southOpen the fire page
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4Port-Berge (Boriziny-Vaovao) fire, 25 October 20265 %≈ 2,086 ha · since 25 October 2026 · about 41 hotspots and 311 MW FRP in 24 h inside its box · 184 km to the southOpen the fire page
There is no dispersion model behind this: it is an estimate. We add up the radiative power (FRP) of the last 24 hours of VIIRS hotspots lying against the wind at 850 hPa, weighted by distance. That is why we say “most likely” and show the whole list.
The 3 windows with the least smoke to air the house or go out
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1 · Thursday 511:00–13:0016 µg/m³ on average · ×1.1 the WHO guideline
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2 · Friday 609:00–11:0013 µg/m³ on average · within the WHO guideline
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3 · Sunday 810:00–12:0016 µg/m³ on average · ×1.0 the WHO guideline
Between 7:00 and 22:00, future hours only, 2-hour blocks at least 4 hours apart. The WHO guideline is a 24-hour average: here it is only a reference.
The last time there was smoke like this
We are still gathering the history for this cell: the archive loads at night, a little at a time.
We do not give medical advice. To know what to do at these levels, follow the health authority: World Health Organization · Air quality and health. Our figures are a model forecast, not a measurement in your street.
How this page works
- Air quality: Copernicus CAMS served by our own Open-Meteo instance, in the city’s 0.1° cell (CAMS Europe at 0.1° where it covers; elsewhere the coarser 0.4° global model). Refreshed every hour.
- Wind: ECMWF IFS at 0.25°, at 850 hPa (about 1,500 m, the height at which smoke usually travels) and at 10 m. The arrival direction is the vector mean of the previous 6 hours.
- Likely source: VIIRS hotspots from the last 24 hours within 250 km (150 km in Europe) and within 40° of the wind direction, weighted FRP × cos(angle) × e^(−distance/120 km). Each hotspot goes to the active fire page whose box contains it; if none does, it counts as a scattered hotspot. With less than 30 MW upwind no fire is named.
- Smoke episode: today’s average above the WHO guideline (15 µg/m³) and, in Europe, at least 10 µg/m³ of PM10 that CAMS attributes to wildfires; outside Europe, at least 30 MW of fires upwind. To speak of “this episode” in the history it takes 7 days or more above the guideline. Outside Europe, those fires must also add up to a weight of at least 100 (FRP × cos × e^(−d/120)), and if desert dust makes up 50 % or more of today's PM10 it is not counted as smoke.
- History: daily mean and maximum PM2.5 since August 2022 from our CAMS archive, stored per cell.
- Health: the reference is the 2021 WHO air quality guideline (24-h PM2.5: 15 µg/m³; interim targets 25, 37.5, 50 and 75). We give no medical advice of our own.
Sources. Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS global and CAMS Europe) served by our own Open-Meteo instance, Open-Meteo.com data under CC BY 4.0. Wind: ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Active fires: NASA FIRMS, VIIRS (Suomi NPP, NOAA-20 and NOAA-21). Fire pages: EFFIS and GWIS (Copernicus, European Commission). Reference: 2021 WHO air quality guidelines. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · CAMS · NASA FIRMS
Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information (2026). Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of this information.