Yasynuvata fire, October 2026
Kostiantynivka, Yasynuvata
Out · last detection 13 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC
Satellites first detected fire on 1 October 2026 in Yasynuvata, Ukraine. It was active for 13 days, with 17 heat detections and an area with fire of about 238 hectares rebuilt from them, spread across 2 municipalities.
matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
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Burned area
satellite only
≈ 238ha
Estimated from hotspots: no perimeter has been published yet.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
1 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
This is an estimate from the VIIRS pixels that saw fire. It will change when the perimeter is published.
Duration by satellite
satellite only
13days
1 Oct 2026 to 13 Oct 2026: first and last day with fire on the page.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
last detection: 13 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only
1 Oct 2026
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
1 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page, so the alert time and the cause are not known here.
Hotspots
satellite only
17
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 34 MW.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP)
Date
1 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only
71MW
Total radiative power on 8 October 2026; hotspots that day: 5.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
Date
8 Oct 2026
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model
22.4FWI · high
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 0.
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings ›
Weather during the fire
model
25.5°C · 31% RH
High of 25.5 °C and minimum humidity of 31% on 12 October 2026; gusts of 44 km/h on 2 October 2026.
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
ⓘThis page’s change log has been kept since 24 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
Copernicus has not yet published the burnt perimeter, which takes a few days to measure on satellite imagery. For now the area is the one rebuilt from heat detections (about 14 hectares per pixel). When the perimeter arrives, this page picks it up on its own and keeps the same address.
Area with fire
≈ 238ha
rebuilt from hotspots, no official perimeter yet
Duration
13days
1 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
1 Oct
2026
Heat detections
17
in a single hotspot: 34 MW
Danger at start
22
High · FWI index
Average daily power
33MW
detected power per day, on average
Where it burned
HOTSPOTS BY DAY
1 Oct13 Oct
Play back13 Oct 2026
How it evolved, day by day
1 Oct3 Oct8 Oct11 Oct
Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.
The weather it burned in
26°high
44km/h · peak gust
31%lowest humidity
It had gone 0 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.2 mm on 14 Oct.
What happened to each town
KostiantynivkaКостянтинівський район17.2 km from the centre
Area with fire inside each municipality, rebuilt from heat detections (about 14 hectares per VIIRS pixel). An estimate until the official perimeter arrives. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
The weather day by day
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
Day
High
Min. humidity
Peak gust
Rain
Danger (FWI)
1 Oct
17.9 °C
46 %
40 km/h
0.0 mm
High 22
2 Oct
15.5 °C
36 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
High 29
3 Oct
15.3 °C
42 %
40 km/h
0.0 mm
High 26
4 Oct
16.5 °C
40 %
27 km/h
0.0 mm
High 23
5 Oct
19.9 °C
37 %
30 km/h
0.0 mm
High 26
6 Oct
19.6 °C
39 %
26 km/h
0.0 mm
High 22
7 Oct
22.6 °C
35 %
33 km/h
0.0 mm
High 30
8 Oct
23.3 °C
38 %
26 km/h
0.0 mm
High 27
9 Oct
23.0 °C
37 %
34 km/h
0.0 mm
High 32
10 Oct
20.7 °C
58 %
35 km/h
1.2 mm
Moderate 17
11 Oct
23.3 °C
42 %
26 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 20
12 Oct
25.5 °C
31 %
37 km/h
0.0 mm
High 36
13 Oct
21.8 °C
58 %
30 km/h
0.1 mm
High 24
14 Oct after
21.0 °C
55 %
36 km/h
1.2 mm
Moderate 14
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 22.4, a minimum humidity of 46% and rain the day before. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 25.
FWI at the start22.4
Minimum humidity46 %
Days without rain0
this firechosen twinsrest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
Marinka fire, September 2024
125 ha5 daysFWI 22.3Min. humidity 43 %33 km away, in 2024
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.1 mm on 17 Sept.
It burned an area similar to its twins (238 ha against a median of 196 ha) and lasted 13 days, against 2 days.
In 2 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.1 mm.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How it ended
1.2 mmfirst rain
14 Octthe day after it ended
44km/h · max. gust
It was considered over on 13 Oct, and on 14 Oct 1.2 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 23 of 25, with a median of 2.1 mm.
Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
How a twin is chosen
Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.
↔
Before · 24 Sept 2026
After · 20 Oct 2026
Sentinel-2 did not pass over on that day. Try another date, or use false colour, which is daily.
If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.
The smoke
CAMS · Copernicus
On 11 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 44 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 23: 1.5 times the WHO daily guideline (15).
PM2.5 peak44µg/m³
Days over the guideline6days
PM1052µg/m³
Optical depth0.42
WHO 15
6 Oct9 Oct12 Oct15 Oct
GoodFairModeratePoorVery poorExtremely poor
Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
Detections table· 17Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.›
⬇ Download CSVTimes in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
According to the heat detections seen by satellite, it burned from 1 October 2026 to 13 October 2026 (13 days between the first and the last detection). There is no perimeter yet to date it.
How much area did it burn?
There is no official perimeter yet. Heat detections rebuild about 238 hectares with fire (2.4 km²); Copernicus will publish the measured figure within days.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Kostiantynivka (210 ha, 0.1 %); Yasynuvata (28 ha, 0.0 %).
Did the fire reach a town?
The fire came within 17.2 km of the centre of Kostiantynivka, the closest of the areas it touched. That is the distance from the perimeter, or the nearest hotspot, to the point marking the centre; it does not mean it entered the houses.
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 25.5 °C, humidity dropped to 31 % and gusts hit 44 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 36, class High.
Where does this data come from?
From the EFFIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Ukraine (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 25. Their median duration was 2 days and their median area 196 ha; 0 % went past 1,000 ha. In 2 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.1 mm.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
⚑Report an errorHow we know this›
No perimeter yet: the area (≈ 238 ha) is estimated by counting VIIRS pixels with fire, about 14 ha each.
Dates of the first and last VIIRS detection of the cluster. 17 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
The perimeter and land cover come from the Copernicus European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), measured on MODIS and Sentinel-2 imagery and published under CC BY 4.0. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ slightly from each country’s official figure.