Valle de Bravo fire, May 2024
Otzoloapan, Valle de Bravo, Ixtapan del Oro
Out · last detection 8 May 2024, 20:34 UTC
The fire started on 4 May 2024 in Valle de Bravo, Mexico, and satellites saw it burning for 5 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 2,799 hectares from heat detections, spread across 4 municipalities.
It is the 10th largest in México since 2016 (of 26 with a page). Number 118 in Mexico in 2024, of 289.
matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
When copying, the sentence is
Tick the figures you want: they make up the lede and the CSV.
Burned area
with caveats
2,799ha
Perimeter published by GWIS (Copernicus).
This page2,799CONAFOR1,639
Source
GWIS (Copernicus)
Date
4 May 2024 – 8 May 2024
+− cross-check
CONAFOR: 1,639 ha (matched records: 2). Difference between the page and the official record: +70.8%. Matched on 8 November 2026. The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
Duration by satellite
satellite only
5days
4 May 2024 to 8 May 2024: first and last day with fire on the page.
Source
GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
last detection: 8 May 2024, 20:34 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only
4 May 2024
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
Source
GWIS (Copernicus) · NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
4 May 2024
+− cross-check
The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
Hotspots
satellite only
114
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 109 MW.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (Suomi NPP)
Date
4 May 2024 – 8 May 2024
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only
454MW
Total radiative power on 5 May 2024; hotspots that day: 23.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
Date
5 May 2024
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model
48.7FWI · very high
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 20.
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings ›
Weather during the fire
model
35.3°C · 20% RH
High of 35.3 °C and minimum humidity of 20% on 8 May 2024; gusts of 44 km/h on 6 May 2024.
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
Living inside
model
≈ 250people
Estimated residents inside the perimeter and 2.3 ha of built-up area (100 m grid, epoch 2025).
Source
GHSL R2023A · JRC
Date
calculated on 24 October 2026
+− cross-check
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.
ⓘThis page’s change log has been kept since 24 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
· reconstructedofficial
Matched with the official CONAFOR record
Nearby records with very different figures: 1,639 ha (records: 2).
A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
People and buildings inside the perimeter
GHSL 2025
Built-up area2.3ha
Residents≈ 250
Inside the perimeter there were about 2.3 hectares of built-up land and about 250 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).
This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.
According to CONAFOR, 2 fires started inside this perimeter on these dates, totalling 1,639 ha (the satellite measured 2,799 ha). The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.
CONAFOR records each fire that started at a different time or place separately; the satellite sees a single burned area, so this page groups them together. The numbers on the map show where each one started.
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
Day
High
Min. humidity
Peak gust
Rain
Danger (FWI)
4 May
34.0 °C
22 %
41 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 49
5 May
34.1 °C
24 %
41 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 49
6 May
33.8 °C
23 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 48
7 May
34.9 °C
20 %
42 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 47
8 May
35.3 °C
20 %
40 km/h
0.0 mm
Extreme 52
9 May after
35.8 °C
16 %
46 km/h
0.0 mm
Extreme 56
10 May after
35.5 °C
19 %
45 km/h
0.0 mm
Extreme 54
11 May after
34.4 °C
16 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
Extreme 57
12 May after
33.0 °C
20 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
Extreme 54
13 May after
32.4 °C
25 %
45 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 49
14 May after
33.2 °C
24 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 49
15 May after
33.4 °C
27 %
45 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 47
16 May after
32.2 °C
27 %
43 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 47
17 May after
32.9 °C
30 %
42 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 46
18 May after
33.1 °C
27 %
44 km/h
0.0 mm
Very high 46
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 48.7, a minimum humidity of 22% and 20 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 45.
FWI at the start48.7
Minimum humidity22 %
Days without rain20
this firechosen twinsrest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
This fire · Valle de Bravo fire, May 2024
2,799 ha5 daysFWI 48.7Min. humidity 22 %
Mochitlán fire, May 2019
3,540 ha10 daysFWI 49.8Min. humidity 22 %226 km away, in 2019
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.0 mm on 18 May.
It burned an area similar to its twins (2,799 ha against a median of 2,318 ha) and lasted 5 days, against 11 days.
In 20 of 45, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.7 mm.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How it ended
—first rain
—no rain in ten days
44km/h · max. gust
It was considered over on 8 May, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 25 of 45, with a median of 1.7 mm.
Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)
How a twin is chosen
Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.
↔
Before · 27 Apr 2024
After · 15 May 2024
Sentinel-2 did not pass over on that day. Try another date, or use false colour, which is daily.
If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.
The smoke
CAMS · Copernicus
On 10 May 2024 the air beside the fire reached 37 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 27: 1.8 times the WHO daily guideline (15).
PM2.5 peak37µg/m³
Days over the guideline7days
PM1055µg/m³
Optical depth1.28
WHO 15
2 May4 May6 May8 May10 May
GoodFairModeratePoorVery poorExtremely poor
Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
Detections table· 114Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.›
⬇ Download CSVTimes in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 4 May 2024 and 8 May 2024: 5 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 2,799 hectares (28.0 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 4 municipalities: Otzoloapan (1,029 ha, 6.5 %); Valle de Bravo (652 ha, 1.6 %); Ixtapan del Oro (627 ha, 6.2 %); Santo Tomás (507 ha, 4.8 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 35.3 °C, humidity dropped to 20 % and gusts hit 44 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 52, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mexico (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 45. Their median duration was 11 days and their median area 2,318 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. In 20 of 45, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.7 mm.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
⚑Report an errorHow we know this›
Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 114 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
Compared with CONAFOR: 1,639 official ha against 2,799 ha of perimeter; similar, but with reservations.
Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.
The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.