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Ust-Maysky Ulus fire, 23 June 2021 Ust-Maysky Ulus

Out · last detection 16 Jul 2021, 01:27 UTC

The fire started on 23 June 2021 in Ust-Maysky Ulus, Russia, and satellites saw it burning for 23 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 43,982 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 86th largest in Sakha Republic since 2016 (of 1347 with a page). Number 41 in Russia in 2021, of 581.

Burnt area
43,982ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
23days
23 Jun 2021 – 15 Jul 2021
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
23 Jun
2021
Heat detections
5,612
in a single hotspot: 180 MW
Danger at start
21
High · FWI index
Average daily power
3.2GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 23 Jun15 Jul
16 Jul 2021

How it evolved, day by day

23 Jun 2021 · 94 MW · 5 24 Jun 2021 · 19 MW · 9 25 Jun 2021 · 126 MW · 6 26 Jun 2021 · 143 MW · 18 27 Jun 2021 · 527 MW · 60 28 Jun 2021 · 1,079 MW · 156 29 Jun 2021 · 13,473 MW · 844 30 Jun 2021 · 20,273 MW · 1058 1 Jul 2021 · 9,062 MW · 862 2 Jul 2021 · 2,328 MW · 403 3 Jul 2021 · 5,200 MW · 785 4 Jul 2021 · 8,729 MW · 894 5 Jul 2021 · 510 MW · 168 8 Jul 2021 · 58 MW · 38 9 Jul 2021 · 1,109 MW · 164 10 Jul 2021 · 196 MW · 73 13 Jul 2021 · 3 MW · 1 14 Jul 2021 · 94 MW · 32 15 Jul 2021 · 144 MW · 35 16 Jul 2021 · 9 MW · 1
23 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jun 5 Jul 13 Jul

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

32°high
42km/h · peak gust
18%lowest humidity

It had gone 6 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 16.8 mm on 16 Jul.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 28% of the area of London (440 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Ust-Maysky Ulus where it started
    44,004 ha reached on 23 Jun
    0.5 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
23 Jun 24.7 °C 35 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 21
24 Jun 24.3 °C 38 % 21 km/h 0.2 mm Moderate 20
25 Jun 28.3 °C 27 % 25 km/h 0.0 mm High 22
26 Jun 28.0 °C 28 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 23
27 Jun 28.2 °C 35 % 18 km/h 0.6 mm Moderate 18
28 Jun 30.6 °C 28 % 14 km/h 0.4 mm High 22
29 Jun 32.1 °C 18 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
30 Jun 30.3 °C 20 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
1 Jul 30.4 °C 22 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
2 Jul 30.6 °C 29 % 18 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
3 Jul 30.9 °C 29 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
4 Jul 31.1 °C 33 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
5 Jul 30.0 °C 36 % 32 km/h 1.6 mm Moderate 16
6 Jul 20.0 °C 77 % 24 km/h 6.0 mm Very low 0
7 Jul 23.7 °C 59 % 20 km/h 0.2 mm Very low 3
8 Jul 27.2 °C 43 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 12
9 Jul 26.7 °C 45 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 18
10 Jul 29.3 °C 43 % 35 km/h 4.4 mm Low 6
11 Jul 20.0 °C 76 % 42 km/h 23.3 mm Very low 0
12 Jul 18.7 °C 49 % 18 km/h 0.0 mm Very low 1
13 Jul 23.5 °C 37 % 17 km/h 0.0 mm Very low 3
14 Jul 26.6 °C 36 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 12
15 Jul 27.4 °C 35 % 17 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 13
16 Jul after 23.1 °C 58 % 32 km/h 16.8 mm Very low 0

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 21.3, a minimum humidity of 35% and 6 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2017: 17.

FWI at the start 21.3
Minimum humidity 35 %
Days without rain 6
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Ust-Maysky Ulus fire, July 2023
10,432 ha 14 days FWI 24.8 Min. humidity 35 % 11 km away, in 2023

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 4.0 mm on 14 Aug.

What happened to them

15 days
median duration
8,734 ha
median area
41 %
went past 10,000 ha
4.0 mm
rain at the end (median; 17 of 17 had it)

It was 5.0 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 23 days, against 15 days.

None of its 17 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 4.0 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

16.8 mmfirst rain
16 Julthe day after it ended
42km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Jul, and on 16 Jul 16.8 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 17 of 17, with a median of 4.0 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2017.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 16 Jun 2021
After · 22 Jul 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 5,612Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Russia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Ust-Maysky Ulus fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 23 June 2021 to 15 July 2021 (23 days). The perimeter dates it from 23 June 2021 to 10 July 2021.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 43,982 hectares (439.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Ust-Maysky Ulus (44,004 ha, 0.5 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 32.1 °C, humidity dropped to 18 % and gusts hit 42 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 33, class High.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Russia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2017 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 17. Their median duration was 15 days and their median area 8,734 ha; 41 % went past 10,000 ha. None of its 17 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 4.0 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 10 July 2021 → 15 July 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 23 June 2021 to 10 July 2021. 5,612 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.