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MX · Mexico · –

Tonalá fire, January 2024 Tonalá

Out · last detection 7 Feb 2024, 18:58 UTC

The fire started on 29 January 2024 in Tonalá, Mexico, and satellites saw it burning for 10 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 2,627 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 84th largest in Chiapas since 2016 (of 246 with a page). Number 129 in Mexico in 2024, of 289.

The power measured by the satellite is low (22.5 MW in the strongest hotspot), more typical of grass or stubble burning, or a slow surface fire, than of a large crown fire.

Burnt area
2,627ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
10days
29 Jan 2024 – 7 Feb 2024
Municipalities hit
1
municipalities
Started on
29 Jan
2024
Heat detections
114
in a single hotspot: 22 MW
Danger at start
61
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
73MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 29 Jan7 Feb
7 Feb 2024

How it evolved, day by day

29 Jan 2024 · 166 MW · 18 30 Jan 2024 · 73 MW · 13 31 Jan 2024 · 20 MW · 3 2 Feb 2024 · 53 MW · 16 3 Feb 2024 · 7 MW · 2 4 Feb 2024 · 13 MW · 2 5 Feb 2024 · 102 MW · 16 6 Feb 2024 · 72 MW · 21 7 Feb 2024 · 148 MW · 23
29 Jan 31 Jan 3 Feb 5 Feb 7 Feb

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

33°high
77km/h · peak gust
32%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

87% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,376 ha in 2020, 1,057 ha in 2021, 1,750 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 2,284 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 1.7% of the area of London (26 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Tonalá where it started
    2,642 ha reached on 29 Jan
    1.4 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area3.6 ha
Residents≈ 300

Inside the perimeter there were about 3.6 hectares of built-up land and about 300 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

Official record

Several official records match this area

According to CONAFOR, 2 fires started inside this perimeter on these dates, totalling 1,267 ha (the satellite measured 2,627 ha). The two figures differ a lot, so these may not be exactly the same fire: take them as nearby records.

CONAFOR records each fire that started at a different time or place separately; the satellite sees a single burned area, so this page groups them together. The numbers on the map show where each one started.

When each one burned

1 1,258 ha 2 9 ha
29 Jan5 Feb
negligence cause unknown or not published
  1. 1 Tonalá Cerro Potrerillo / Innominado 29 January 2024 1,258 ha · extinguished on 4 February 2024 · cause: negligence
  2. 2 Tonalá La Polka/ Innominado 5 February 2024 9 ha · extinguished on 6 February 2024 · cause: unknown

Total according to CONAFOR: 1,267 ha, 48 % of the 2,627 ha in the satellite perimeter.

CONAFOR (Comisión Nacional Forestal), estadística de incendios forestales en datos.gob.mx (CC BY 4.0). This is the agency’s consolidated statistic: it measures the area in its own way, which is why it can differ from the satellite.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Strong wind: 19 % of the area in Mexico 60 days without rain: 25 % of the area in Mexico

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
29 Jan 27.8 °C 48 % 74 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 61
30 Jan 30.7 °C 41 % 60 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
31 Jan 30.8 °C 41 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
1 Feb 33.1 °C 38 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
2 Feb 31.7 °C 45 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
3 Feb 30.6 °C 51 % 48 km/h 0.3 mm Very high 40
4 Feb 30.9 °C 55 % 34 km/h 1.6 mm Moderate 16
5 Feb 33.1 °C 32 % 62 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
6 Feb 29.0 °C 33 % 77 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 69
7 Feb 31.7 °C 34 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
8 Feb after 31.2 °C 48 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
9 Feb after 31.7 °C 37 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
10 Feb after 30.7 °C 49 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
11 Feb after 32.2 °C 43 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
12 Feb after 33.7 °C 37 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
13 Feb after 30.9 °C 47 % 54 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
14 Feb after 33.9 °C 40 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
15 Feb after 34.6 °C 43 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
16 Feb after 33.5 °C 47 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
17 Feb after 32.3 °C 48 % 34 km/h 0.1 mm High 34

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 61.1, a minimum humidity of 48% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 2.

FWI at the start 61.1
Minimum humidity 48 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Arriaga fire, February 2016
3,004 ha 3 days FWI 49.7 Min. humidity 55 % 38 km away, in 2016

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.7 mm on 8 Mar.

What happened to them

Fires in the area that started in similar weather: 2. With fewer than 15 we give no figures: they would be more noise than signal.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
77km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 7 Feb, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 22 Jan 2024
After · 14 Feb 2024

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 8 February 2024 the air beside the fire reached 44 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 23: 1.5 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak44 µg/m³
Days over the guideline1 day
PM1064 µg/m³
Optical depth0.42
27 Jan30 Jan2 Feb5 Feb8 Feb
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 114Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Mexico

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Tonalá fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 29 January 2024 and 7 February 2024: 10 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 2,627 hectares (26.3 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Tonalá (2,642 ha, 1.4 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 33.1 °C, humidity dropped to 32 % and gusts hit 77 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 69, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mexico (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 911 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 911.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 114 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • Compared with CONAFOR: 1,267 official ha against 2,627 ha of perimeter; similar, but with reservations.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.