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BZ · Belize · –

Toledo fire, 14 May 2024 Toledo

Out · last detection 18 May 2024, 07:55 UTC

The fire started on 14 May 2024 in Toledo, Belize, and satellites saw it burning for 5 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 1,214 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

Number 10 in Belize in 2024, of 14.

Burnt area
1,214ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
5days
14 May 2024 – 18 May 2024
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
14 May
2024
Heat detections
34
in a single hotspot: 61 MW
Danger at start
24
High · FWI index
Average daily power
192MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 14 May18 May
18 May 2024

How it evolved, day by day

15 May 2024 · 11 MW · 1 16 May 2024 · 290 MW · 10 17 May 2024 · 463 MW · 22 18 May 2024 · 3 MW · 1
15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

39°high
38km/h · peak gust
40%lowest humidity

It had gone 14 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 0.8% of the area of London (12 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Toledo where it started
    1,221 ha reached on 15 May
    0.3 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area0.41 ha
Residents≈ 30

Inside the perimeter there were about 0.41 hectares of built-up land and about 30 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
14 May 38.5 °C 44 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
15 May 38.2 °C 43 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
16 May 36.5 °C 48 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
17 May 39.2 °C 40 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
18 May 38.5 °C 42 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
19 May after 38.1 °C 40 % 31 km/h 0.7 mm High 23
20 May after 37.0 °C 46 % 37 km/h 0.6 mm High 23
21 May after 36.8 °C 48 % 40 km/h 0.3 mm High 24
22 May after 35.9 °C 52 % 37 km/h 0.4 mm High 24
23 May after 35.3 °C 51 % 37 km/h 0.1 mm High 26
24 May after 37.7 °C 46 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
25 May after 38.4 °C 45 % 35 km/h 0.1 mm High 25
26 May after 38.9 °C 43 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
27 May after 38.5 °C 46 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
28 May after 36.4 °C 53 % 44 km/h 0.6 mm High 24

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 23.6, a minimum humidity of 44% and 14 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 25.

FWI at the start 23.6
Minimum humidity 44 %
Days without rain 14
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Quezaltepeque fire, April 2017
1,021 ha 4 days FWI 25.0 Min. humidity 45 % 183 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.3 mm on 19 Apr.

What happened to them

10 days
median duration
1,281 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
1.5 mm
rain at the end (median; 24 of 25 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (1,214 ha against a median of 1,281 ha) and lasted 5 days, against 10 days.

In 1 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.5 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
38km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 18 May, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 24 of 25, with a median of 1.5 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 7 May 2024
After · 25 May 2024

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 16 May 2024 the air beside the fire reached 55 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 34: 2.3 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak55 µg/m³
Days over the guideline8 days
PM1078 µg/m³
Optical depth1.92
14 May16 May18 May20 May
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 34Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Belize

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Toledo fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 14 May 2024 to 18 May 2024 (5 days). The perimeter dates it from 16 May 2024 to 18 May 2024.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 1,214 hectares (12.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Toledo (1,221 ha, 0.3 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 39.2 °C, humidity dropped to 40 % and gusts hit 38 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 28, class High.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Belize (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 25. Their median duration was 10 days and their median area 1,281 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. In 1 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.5 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 911 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 16 May 2024 → 14 May 2024.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 911.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 16 May 2024 to 18 May 2024. 34 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM1 (Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.