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PK · Pakistan · –

Rajanpur fire, October 2026 Rajanpur

Dying down · last detection 7 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC

The fire started on 22 October 2026 in Rajanpur, Pakistan, and satellites saw it burning for 17 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 1,112 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

Number 23 in Pakistan in 2026, of 30.

GWIS near-real-time perimeter, from the layer that changed in October 2025: this fire is not compared with fires from earlier years, because since then the GWIS layer gives more and larger perimeters.

The power measured by the satellite is low (7.1 MW in the strongest hotspot), more typical of grass or stubble burning, or a slow surface fire, than of a large crown fire.

Compare with…

Suggestions: Rajanpur · 2018

Is it still active?

No detections since 7 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC. That usually means no flame is visible from space any more, although hotspots may remain. Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.

Wind, humidity and rain for the next 72 h

Burnt area
1,112ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
17days
22 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026
Municipalities hit
1
subdistricts
Started on
22 Oct
2026
Heat detections
21
in a single hotspot: 7 MW
Danger at start
42
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
7MW
detected power per day, on average

The next 72 hours

The wind is blowing from the north and pushing southwards; no sharp shifts are expected until Wed 11, 02:00.

ECMWF IFS 0.25° at the centre of the fire · computed 7 Nov 2026, 18:58 UTC

No sharp changes in the next 72 h

No strong wind shifts and no dry nights. No warnings does not mean the fire will go out: in this weather it can carry on as it is.

Checked, no warning: no wind shifts of more than 60° nights recover humidity (peaks of 68 % or more) no useful rain expected (0.0 mm in 72 h)

Hour by hour, local time

Tap the strip to see each hour

Mean wind Gusts where it blows to Relative humidity Night (8 pm to 8 am) Rain (mm) · chance in %

Where is it blowing? The next 48 h

geoBoundaries/Pathways Data Pvt. Ltd., https//www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-census/ (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0)

At this hour

Places the fan reaches

    Is it heading my way?

    We compare your point with the fan for each hour. Your location never leaves your device.

    or tap the map

    This is not an official warning. It is a global model forecast with cells of about 25 km, at the centre of the fire: it cannot see valley winds or the winds the fire itself creates. The fan shows where the wind blows, not where the fire will spread. If in doubt, follow what the authorities say.

    Emergencies · Pakistan 1122 · 16 Emergency number and official warnings

    Forecast: ECMWF IFS 0.25° (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), served by our own Open-Meteo instance; the chance of rain comes from the ECMWF ensemble. Variables: wind and gusts at 10 m, wind at 850 hPa, relative humidity and temperature at 2 m, rain. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).

    Fire: GWIS / Copernicus (reconstructed from VIIRS) (CC BY 4.0); hotspots from the last 24 h: VIIRS from NASA FIRMS. Boundaries: geoBoundaries/Pathways Data Pvt. Ltd., https//www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-census/ (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0).

    How it is worked out: wind shift = a change of more than 60° in 6 h or less, with at least 15 km/h before and after; no overnight recovery = peak humidity between 8 pm and 8 am stays below 55 %; useful rain = 2 mm or more in 6 h. The fan opens 18° plus however much the wind varies within ±3 h and reaches 25 km beyond the edge of the fire: one model cell, not a rate of spread. Methodology

    Where it burned

    HOTSPOTS BY DAY 22 Oct7 Nov
    7 Nov 2026

    How it evolved, day by day

    23 Oct 2026 · 6 MW · 2 24 Oct 2026 · 0 MW · 0 26 Oct 2026 · 7 MW · 1 27 Oct 2026 · 9 MW · 3 28 Oct 2026 · 4 MW · 1 29 Oct 2026 · 2 MW · 1 30 Oct 2026 · 14 MW · 3 31 Oct 2026 · 11 MW · 2 1 Nov 2026 · 10 MW · 2 2 Nov 2026 · 4 MW · 1 3 Nov 2026 · 6 MW · 2 5 Nov 2026 · 3 MW · 1 6 Nov 2026 · 0 MW · 0 7 Nov 2026 · 7 MW · 2
    23 Oct 27 Oct 30 Oct 2 Nov 6 Nov

    Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

    The weather it burned in

    35°high
    49km/h · peak gust
    16%lowest humidity

    It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

    This area had burned before

    33% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 207 ha in 2020, 237 ha in 2021. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 369 ha that had burned before.

    How big is it?

    10 km
    It burned the equivalent of 0.7% of the area of London (11 km² against 1,583 km²).

    London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

    This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

    What happened to each town

    1. Rajanpur where it started
      1,118 ha reached on 23 Oct
      0.4 %

    Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

    People and buildings inside the perimeter

    GHSL 2025
    Built-up area15 ha
    Residents≈ 2,900

    Inside the perimeter there were about 15 hectares of built-up land and about 2,900 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

    This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

    Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

    The weather day by day

    ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

    Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives

    Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
    22 Oct 34.1 °C 29 % 31 km/h 0.1 mm Very high 42
    23 Oct 35.2 °C 16 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
    24 Oct 33.0 °C 32 % 49 km/h 0.4 mm Extreme 51
    25 Oct 31.6 °C 30 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
    26 Oct 31.0 °C 33 % 20 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
    27 Oct 31.6 °C 32 % 19 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
    28 Oct 31.5 °C 35 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
    29 Oct 31.7 °C 31 % 14 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
    30 Oct 31.3 °C 31 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
    31 Oct 31.1 °C 33 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
    1 Nov 31.8 °C 30 % 21 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
    2 Nov 32.5 °C 28 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
    3 Nov 31.8 °C 31 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
    4 Nov 32.4 °C 32 % 21 km/h 0.1 mm High 34
    5 Nov 32.2 °C 31 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
    6 Nov 32.5 °C 31 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
    7 Nov 34.2 °C 22 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 33

    Before and after, from space

    Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

    Before · 15 Oct 2026
    After · 6 Nov 2026

    If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

    The smoke

    CAMS · Copernicus

    On 29 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 92 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 72: 4.8 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

    PM2.5 peak92 µg/m³
    Days over the guideline14 days
    PM10104 µg/m³
    Optical depth0.71
    20 Oct23 Oct26 Oct29 Oct1 Nov
    Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

    Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

    Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

    Detections table · 21Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
    ⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
    Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

    Other fires nearby

    All fires in Pakistan

    Frequently asked questions

    How long did the Rajanpur fire last?
    According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 22 October 2026 to 7 November 2026 (17 days). The perimeter dates it from 29 October 2026 to 5 November 2026.
    How much area did it burn?
    The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 1,112 hectares (11.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
    Which municipalities burned?
    The fire only entered Rajanpur (1,118 ha, 0.4 %).
    Is the Rajanpur fire still active?
    No fire detections since 7 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC. A lack of detections is not an official extinction.
    What was the weather like?
    During the fire the temperature reached 35.2 °C, humidity dropped to 16 % and gusts hit 49 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 53, class Extreme.
    What weather is expected at the fire over the next 72 hours?
    The wind is blowing from the north and pushing southwards; no sharp shifts are expected until Wed 11, 02:00. No strong wind shifts, dry nights or useful rain are expected. Times are local time at the fire. ECMWF IFS forecast (Open-Meteo) computed 7 Nov 2026, 18:58 UTC; this is not an official warning.
    Where does this data come from?
    From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Pakistan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.

    Where to verify it

    A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

    Emergency number: 1122 · 16 · Emergency number and official warnings

    Satellite cross-check

    History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 3 November 2026.
    1. Area: 1,060 → 1,098 ha.
    2. Page published (1,060 ha).

    RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

    Does something look wrong on this page?

    This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

    Report an error
    What do you think is wrong?

    We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 1122 · 16.

    How we know this
    • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
    • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 29 October 2026 to 5 November 2026. 21 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
    • We have not matched this page with any official record.
    • Weather: ECMWF IFS model, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives.
    • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

    How we build fire pages: methodology

    Where this data comes from

    The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM3 (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.