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MG · Madagascar · –

Moramanga fire, 21 October 2019 Moramanga

Out · last detection 7 Nov 2019, 21:50 UTC

The fire started on 21 October 2019 in Moramanga, Madagascar, and satellites saw it burning for 18 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 7,805 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 5th largest in Alaotra-Mangoro since 2016 (of 45 with a page). Number 3 in Madagascar in 2019, of 38.

Burnt area
7,805ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
18days
21 Oct 2019 – 7 Nov 2019
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
21 Oct
2019
Heat detections
391
in a single hotspot: 253 MW
Danger at start
2
Very low · FWI index
Average daily power
486MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 21 Oct7 Nov
7 Nov 2019

How it evolved, day by day

21 Oct 2019 · 940 MW · 26 22 Oct 2019 · 705 MW · 51 23 Oct 2019 · 1,194 MW · 59 24 Oct 2019 · 273 MW · 18 25 Oct 2019 · 1,364 MW · 64 26 Oct 2019 · 318 MW · 28 27 Oct 2019 · 694 MW · 35 28 Oct 2019 · 391 MW · 27 30 Oct 2019 · 734 MW · 17 31 Oct 2019 · 218 MW · 14 1 Nov 2019 · 9 MW · 2 3 Nov 2019 · 23 MW · 1 4 Nov 2019 · 286 MW · 5 5 Nov 2019 · 19 MW · 4 6 Nov 2019 · 320 MW · 15 7 Nov 2019 · 298 MW · 25
21 Oct 25 Oct 30 Oct 4 Nov

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

31°high
45km/h · peak gust
31%lowest humidity

It had gone 2 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.1 mm on 10 Nov.

This area had burned before

90% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 4,352 ha in 2016, 3,957 ha in 2017, 3,864 ha in 2018. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 7,019 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 4.9% of the area of London (78 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Moramanga where it started
    7,864 ha reached on 21 Oct
    1.1 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area2.1 ha
Residents≈ 300

Inside the perimeter there were about 2.1 hectares of built-up land and about 300 residents (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
21 Oct 25.9 °C 54 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very low 2
22 Oct 28.8 °C 54 % 26 km/h 4.6 mm Very low 0
23 Oct 27.2 °C 55 % 33 km/h 0.1 mm Very low 2
24 Oct 28.1 °C 49 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Very low 4
25 Oct 29.9 °C 37 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Low 8
26 Oct 30.4 °C 31 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Low 11
27 Oct 28.5 °C 45 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Low 10
28 Oct 29.4 °C 45 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Low 11
29 Oct 30.8 °C 38 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 12
30 Oct 29.1 °C 39 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 13
31 Oct 28.6 °C 47 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 13
1 Nov 24.2 °C 57 % 45 km/h 7.8 mm Very low 1
2 Nov 18.9 °C 77 % 38 km/h 8.2 mm Very low 0
3 Nov 22.2 °C 59 % 31 km/h 0.8 mm Very low 0
4 Nov 24.5 °C 58 % 33 km/h 1.2 mm Very low 1
5 Nov 27.7 °C 48 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very low 5
6 Nov 25.4 °C 55 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Low 6
7 Nov 25.1 °C 53 % 35 km/h 0.1 mm Low 7
8 Nov after 24.9 °C 59 % 31 km/h 0.3 mm Low 7
9 Nov after 28.2 °C 44 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Low 10
10 Nov after 27.2 °C 50 % 35 km/h 1.1 mm Low 6

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 2.4, a minimum humidity of 54% and 2 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 15.

FWI at the start 2.4
Minimum humidity 54 %
Days without rain 2
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Brickaville fire, November 2023
3,993 ha 3 days FWI 2.6 Min. humidity 53 % 54 km away, in 2023

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 32.3 mm on 1 Dec.

What happened to them

10 days
median duration
2,491 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
4.7 mm
rain at the end (median; 15 of 15 had it)

It was 3.1 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 18 days, against 10 days.

Only 2 of its 15 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 4.7 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.1 mmfirst rain
10 Nov3 days after it ended
45km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 7 Nov, and on 10 Nov 1.1 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 15 of 15, with a median of 4.7 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 14 Oct 2019
After · 14 Nov 2019

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 391Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Madagascar

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Moramanga fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 21 October 2019 to 7 November 2019 (18 days). The perimeter dates it from 21 October 2019 to 31 October 2019.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 7,805 hectares (78.0 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Moramanga (7,864 ha, 1.1 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 30.8 °C, humidity dropped to 31 % and gusts hit 45 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 13, class Moderate.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Madagascar (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 15. Their median duration was 10 days and their median area 2,491 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. Only 2 of its 15 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 4.7 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 31 October 2019 → 7 November 2019.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 21 October 2019 to 31 October 2019. 391 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.