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MZ · Mozambique · –

Mocuba fire, 6 October 2023 Milange, Lugela, Mocuba

Out · last detection 16 Oct 2023, 10:59 UTC

The fire started on 6 October 2023 in Mocuba, Mozambique, and satellites saw it burning for 11 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 5,749 hectares from heat detections, spread across 3 municipalities.

It is the 198th largest in Zambézia since 2016 (of 562 with a page). Number 42 in Mozambique in 2023, of 128.

Compare with…
Burnt area
5,749ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
11days
6 Oct 2023 – 16 Oct 2023
Municipalities hit
3
districts
Started on
6 Oct
2023
Heat detections
284
in a single hotspot: 75 MW
Danger at start
37
High · FWI index
Average daily power
271MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 6 Oct16 Oct
16 Oct 2023

How it evolved, day by day

6 Oct 2023 · 7 MW · 1 7 Oct 2023 · 113 MW · 14 8 Oct 2023 · 643 MW · 49 9 Oct 2023 · 526 MW · 36 10 Oct 2023 · 169 MW · 28 11 Oct 2023 · 197 MW · 27 12 Oct 2023 · 353 MW · 36 13 Oct 2023 · 395 MW · 39 14 Oct 2023 · 151 MW · 26 15 Oct 2023 · 266 MW · 15 16 Oct 2023 · 163 MW · 13
8 Oct 12 Oct 15 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

41°high
46km/h · peak gust
16%lowest humidity

It had gone 2 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 10.7 mm on 17 Oct.

This area had burned before

99% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 4,655 ha in 2016, 4,450 ha in 2017, 4,338 ha in 2018, 4,014 ha in 2019, 3,159 ha in 2020, 644 ha in 2021, 2,437 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 5,670 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 3.6% of the area of London (57 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 2,917 ha
    0.5 %
  2. 2,534 ha
    0.4 %
  3. Mocuba where it started
    334 ha
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
6 Oct 36.1 °C 23 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
7 Oct 37.5 °C 22 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
8 Oct 38.9 °C 21 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
9 Oct 34.6 °C 33 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
10 Oct 35.2 °C 28 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
11 Oct 35.8 °C 25 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
12 Oct 37.8 °C 24 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
13 Oct 40.7 °C 16 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
14 Oct 40.8 °C 16 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
15 Oct 34.9 °C 37 % 41 km/h 0.1 mm High 31
16 Oct 36.5 °C 36 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
17 Oct after 33.8 °C 41 % 41 km/h 10.7 mm Very high 38

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 36.7, a minimum humidity of 23% and 2 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 25.

FWI at the start 36.7
Minimum humidity 23 %
Days without rain 2
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mocuba fire, September 2021
5,806 ha 5 days FWI 36.9 Min. humidity 21 % 39 km away, in 2021

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.8 mm on 10 Sept.

What happened to them

15 days
median duration
5,261 ha
median area
16 %
went past 10,000 ha
3.6 mm
rain at the end (median; 20 of 25 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (5,749 ha against a median of 5,261 ha) and lasted 11 days, against 15 days.

In 5 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.6 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

10.7 mmfirst rain
17 Octthe day after it ended
46km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 16 Oct, and on 17 Oct 10.7 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 20 of 25, with a median of 3.6 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 29 Sept 2023
After · 23 Oct 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 9 October 2023 the air beside the fire reached 101 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 45: 3.0 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak101 µg/m³
Days over the guideline9 days
PM10143 µg/m³
Optical depth1.41
6 Oct9 Oct12 Oct15 Oct18 Oct
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 284Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Mozambique

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Mocuba fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 6 October 2023 to 16 October 2023 (11 days). The perimeter dates it from 8 October 2023 to 16 October 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 5,749 hectares (57.5 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 3 municipalities: Milange (2,917 ha, 0.5 %); Lugela (2,534 ha, 0.4 %); Mocuba (334 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 40.8 °C, humidity dropped to 16 % and gusts hit 46 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 52, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mozambique (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 25. Their median duration was 15 days and their median area 5,261 ha; 16 % went past 10,000 ha. In 5 of 25, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.6 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Start date: 8 October 2023 → 6 October 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 8 October 2023 to 16 October 2023. 284 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.