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ZM · Zambia · –

Milengi fire, July 2023 Chembe, Milengi, Mansa

Out · last detection 16 Aug 2023, 11:46 UTC

The fire started on 30 July 2023 in Milengi, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 17 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 5,479 hectares from heat detections, spread across 3 municipalities.

It is the 203th largest in Luapula since 2016 (of 449 with a page). Number 53 in Zambia in 2023, of 165.

Compare with…
Burnt area
5,479ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
17days
30 Jul 2023 – 15 Aug 2023
Municipalities hit
3
districts
Started on
30 Jul
2023
Heat detections
179
in a single hotspot: 47 MW
Danger at start
38
High · FWI index
Average daily power
93MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 30 Jul15 Aug
16 Aug 2023

How it evolved, day by day

30 Jul 2023 · 54 MW · 5 31 Jul 2023 · 316 MW · 34 1 Aug 2023 · 286 MW · 37 2 Aug 2023 · 33 MW · 7 3 Aug 2023 · 22 MW · 6 4 Aug 2023 · 84 MW · 12 5 Aug 2023 · 323 MW · 36 6 Aug 2023 · 95 MW · 6 7 Aug 2023 · 26 MW · 2 8 Aug 2023 · 1 MW · 1 9 Aug 2023 · 20 MW · 3 10 Aug 2023 · 106 MW · 13 11 Aug 2023 · 96 MW · 12 12 Aug 2023 · 2 MW · 1 15 Aug 2023 · 12 MW · 2 16 Aug 2023 · 8 MW · 2
30 Jul 5 Aug 11 Aug

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

29°high
55km/h · peak gust
22%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

96% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 2,347 ha in 2016, 2,652 ha in 2017, 2,042 ha in 2018, 3,120 ha in 2019, 2,875 ha in 2020, 2,969 ha in 2021, 2,035 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 5,274 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 3.5% of the area of London (55 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 5,327 ha
    2.4 %
  2. Milengi where it started
    161 ha
    0.0 %
  3. 22 ha
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
30 Jul 28.9 °C 22 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
31 Jul 28.0 °C 25 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
1 Aug 26.0 °C 31 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
2 Aug 24.4 °C 33 % 55 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
3 Aug 22.8 °C 33 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
4 Aug 23.1 °C 33 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
5 Aug 24.3 °C 31 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
6 Aug 25.9 °C 32 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
7 Aug 25.4 °C 28 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
8 Aug 24.8 °C 29 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
9 Aug 25.9 °C 28 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
10 Aug 24.5 °C 28 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
11 Aug 24.8 °C 32 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
12 Aug 25.3 °C 28 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
13 Aug 25.8 °C 30 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
14 Aug 27.7 °C 33 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
15 Aug 29.2 °C 32 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 38
16 Aug after 29.1 °C 27 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
17 Aug after 27.6 °C 29 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
18 Aug after 27.7 °C 28 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
19 Aug after 28.3 °C 29 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
20 Aug after 29.7 °C 29 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
21 Aug after 30.7 °C 27 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 41
22 Aug after 31.2 °C 22 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
23 Aug after 30.2 °C 21 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
24 Aug after 30.3 °C 21 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
25 Aug after 30.0 °C 29 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 37.5, a minimum humidity of 22% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 32.

FWI at the start 37.5
Minimum humidity 22 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Chembe fire, August 2017
3,492 ha 13 days FWI 36.9 Min. humidity 21 % 17 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

17 days
median duration
5,528 ha
median area
28 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 4 of 32 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (5,479 ha against a median of 5,528 ha) and lasted 17 days, against 17 days.

In 28 of 32, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
55km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Aug, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 4 of 32, with a median of 2.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 23 Jul 2023
After · 22 Aug 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 30 July 2023 the air beside the fire reached 56 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 37: 2.5 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak56 µg/m³
Days over the guideline4 days
PM1080 µg/m³
Optical depth0.66
29 Jul1 Aug4 Aug7 Aug10 Aug
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 179Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Milengi fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 30 July 2023 to 15 August 2023 (17 days). The perimeter dates it from 31 July 2023 to 8 August 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 5,479 hectares (54.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 3 municipalities: Chembe (5,327 ha, 2.4 %); Milengi (161 ha, 0.0 %); Mansa (22 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 29.2 °C, humidity dropped to 22 % and gusts hit 55 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 52, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 32. Their median duration was 17 days and their median area 5,528 ha; 28 % went past 10,000 ha. In 28 of 32, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 3 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Name: Chembe → Milengi.
  2. Last day with fire: 8 August 2023 → 15 August 2023.
  3. Start date: 31 July 2023 → 30 July 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 31 July 2023 to 8 August 2023. 179 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.