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NA · Namibia · –

Mashare fire, 15 September 2021 Mashare

Out · last detection 20 Sept 2021, 12:15 UTC

The fire started on 15 September 2021 in Mashare, Namibia, and satellites saw it burning for 6 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 11,460 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 32th largest in Kavango East since 2016 (of 332 with a page). Number 14 in Namibia in 2021, of 175.

Burnt area
11,460ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
6days
15 Sept 2021 – 20 Sept 2021
Municipalities hit
1
constituencies
Started on
15 Sept
2021
Heat detections
372
in a single hotspot: 175 MW
Danger at start
51
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
767MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 15 Sept20 Sept
20 Sept 2021

How it evolved, day by day

15 Sept 2021 · 5 MW · 3 16 Sept 2021 · 965 MW · 76 17 Sept 2021 · 2,159 MW · 183 18 Sept 2021 · 364 MW · 44 19 Sept 2021 · 123 MW · 15 20 Sept 2021 · 986 MW · 51
15 Sept 17 Sept 19 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

34°high
37km/h · peak gust
11%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

47% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 1,709 ha in 2017, 4,004 ha in 2018. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 5,346 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 7.2% of the area of London (115 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Mashare where it started
    11,547 ha reached on 15 Sept
    1.3 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 81 % of the area in Namibia 60 days without rain: 88 % of the area in Namibia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
15 Sept 33.6 °C 12 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
16 Sept 34.5 °C 11 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
17 Sept 32.1 °C 12 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
18 Sept 34.0 °C 12 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
19 Sept 32.6 °C 23 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
20 Sept 33.7 °C 21 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
21 Sept after 33.9 °C 19 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
22 Sept after 35.3 °C 13 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
23 Sept after 34.1 °C 16 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
24 Sept after 34.1 °C 14 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
25 Sept after 34.4 °C 11 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
26 Sept after 34.0 °C 10 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
27 Sept after 34.4 °C 11 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
28 Sept after 34.3 °C 14 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
29 Sept after 35.1 °C 13 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
30 Sept after 35.0 °C 14 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 50.6, a minimum humidity of 12% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 93.

FWI at the start 50.6
Minimum humidity 12 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mashare fire, August 2017
3,154 ha 7 days FWI 50.8 Min. humidity 12 % 29 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

7 days
median duration
3,379 ha
median area
15 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 14 of 93 had it)

It was 3.4 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 6 days, against 7 days.

Only 8 of its 93 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 79 of 93, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
37km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 20 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 14 of 93, with a median of 1.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 8 Sept 2021
After · 27 Sept 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 372Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Namibia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Mashare fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 15 September 2021 and 20 September 2021: 6 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 11,460 hectares (114.6 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Mashare (11,547 ha, 1.3 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 34.5 °C, humidity dropped to 11 % and gusts hit 37 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 59, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Namibia (OCHA COD-AB). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 93. Their median duration was 7 days and their median area 3,379 ha; 15 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 8 of its 93 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 79 of 93, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 2 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 372 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from OCHA COD-AB (Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA)) (Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.