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SS · South Sudan · –

Luakpiny/Nasir fire, February 2021 Maiwut, Luakpiny/Nasir

Out · last detection 16 Feb 2021, 11:31 UTC

The fire started on 2 February 2021 in Luakpiny/Nasir, South Sudan, and satellites saw it burning for 14 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 25,408 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 19th largest in Upper Nile since 2016 (of 238 with a page). Number 11 in South Sudan in 2021, of 212.

Compare with…
Burnt area
25,408ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
14days
2 Feb 2021 – 15 Feb 2021
Municipalities hit
2
counties
Started on
2 Feb
2021
Heat detections
1,144
in a single hotspot: 0 MW
Danger at start
50
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
756MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 2 Feb15 Feb
16 Feb 2021

How it evolved, day by day

2 Feb 2021 · 149 MW · 16 3 Feb 2021 · 116 MW · 21 4 Feb 2021 · 841 MW · 108 5 Feb 2021 · 1,887 MW · 212 6 Feb 2021 · 2,086 MW · 162 7 Feb 2021 · 625 MW · 94 8 Feb 2021 · 376 MW · 57 9 Feb 2021 · 524 MW · 60 10 Feb 2021 · 756 MW · 74 11 Feb 2021 · 1,501 MW · 102 12 Feb 2021 · 763 MW · 54 13 Feb 2021 · 350 MW · 25 14 Feb 2021 · 684 MW · 76 15 Feb 2021 · 490 MW · 51 16 Feb 2021 · 198 MW · 32
2 Feb 6 Feb 11 Feb 14 Feb

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

41°high
53km/h · peak gust
8%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 16% of the area of London (254 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 17,678 ha
    4.8 %
  2. Luakpiny/Nasir where it started
    7,882 ha
    1.5 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area0.13 ha
Residents≈ 400

Inside the perimeter there were about 0.13 hectares of built-up land and about 400 residents (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 33 % of the area in South Sudan 60 days without rain: 13 % of the area in South Sudan

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
2 Feb 39.3 °C 13 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
3 Feb 39.7 °C 15 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
4 Feb 39.9 °C 13 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
5 Feb 38.8 °C 10 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72
6 Feb 37.4 °C 8 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 71
7 Feb 37.1 °C 9 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
8 Feb 37.8 °C 9 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
9 Feb 38.6 °C 13 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
10 Feb 40.3 °C 12 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
11 Feb 40.4 °C 10 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
12 Feb 40.4 °C 10 % 22 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
13 Feb 40.9 °C 8 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
14 Feb 41.0 °C 9 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
15 Feb 41.1 °C 10 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
16 Feb after 41.0 °C 10 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
17 Feb after 39.7 °C 11 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 77
18 Feb after 37.2 °C 12 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 79
19 Feb after 36.8 °C 11 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 73
20 Feb after 37.4 °C 11 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68
21 Feb after 38.2 °C 12 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 68
22 Feb after 39.5 °C 11 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
23 Feb after 39.3 °C 10 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
24 Feb after 39.9 °C 10 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 74
25 Feb after 39.4 °C 11 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 72

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 49.7, a minimum humidity of 13% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 26.

FWI at the start 49.7
Minimum humidity 13 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Jore fire, March 2025
2,095 ha 5 days FWI 51.2 Min. humidity 13 % 53 km away, in 2025

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

10 days
median duration
2,540 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
2.1 mm
rain at the end (median; 6 of 26 had it)

It was 10.0 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 14 days, against 10 days.

Only 1 of its 26 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 20 of 26, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.1 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
53km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Feb, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 6 of 26, with a median of 2.1 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 26 Jan 2021
After · 22 Feb 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 0Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Sudan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Luakpiny/Nasir fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 2 February 2021 and 15 February 2021: 14 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 25,408 hectares (254.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Maiwut (17,678 ha, 4.8 %); Luakpiny/Nasir (7,882 ha, 1.5 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 41.1 °C, humidity dropped to 8 % and gusts hit 53 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 72, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Sudan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 26. Their median duration was 10 days and their median area 2,540 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. Only 1 of its 26 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 20 of 26, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.1 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 5 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 22 February 2021 → 15 February 2021.
  2. Start date: 26 January 2021 → 2 February 2021.
  3. Name: Maiwut → Luakpiny/Nasir.
  4. Last day with fire: 15 February 2021 → 22 February 2021.
  5. Start date: 2 February 2021 → 26 January 2021.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 3 polygons grouped in this page.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. No Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.