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ZM · Zambia · –

Lunte fire, 1 October 2022 Kasama, Lunte

Out · last detection 18 Oct 2022, 11:08 UTC

The fire started on 1 October 2022 in Lunte, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 19 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 4,784 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 183th largest in Northern since 2016 (of 437 with a page). Number 110 in Zambia in 2022, of 235.

Burnt area
4,784ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
19days
1 Oct 2022 – 19 Oct 2022
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
1 Oct
2022
Heat detections
201
in a single hotspot: 68 MW
Danger at start
50
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
263MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 1 Oct19 Oct
18 Oct 2022

How it evolved, day by day

1 Oct 2022 · 64 MW · 1 3 Oct 2022 · 8 MW · 2 7 Oct 2022 · 57 MW · 9 8 Oct 2022 · 1,424 MW · 92 9 Oct 2022 · 882 MW · 66 10 Oct 2022 · 98 MW · 10 12 Oct 2022 · 9 MW · 3 13 Oct 2022 · 25 MW · 2 15 Oct 2022 · 25 MW · 3 17 Oct 2022 · 185 MW · 7 18 Oct 2022 · 121 MW · 6
1 Oct 8 Oct 12 Oct 17 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

32°high
50km/h · peak gust
13%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

84% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 3,863 ha in 2016, 1,479 ha in 2019, 1,421 ha in 2020. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 4,014 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 3% of the area of London (48 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 4,677 ha
    0.4 %
  2. Lunte where it started
    126 ha
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
1 Oct 31.1 °C 19 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
2 Oct 31.5 °C 18 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
3 Oct 31.3 °C 15 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
4 Oct 31.0 °C 20 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
5 Oct 31.9 °C 16 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
6 Oct 31.8 °C 13 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
7 Oct 30.5 °C 17 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 63
8 Oct 30.3 °C 14 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Very extreme 73
9 Oct 29.5 °C 15 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
10 Oct 29.9 °C 20 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
11 Oct 31.4 °C 20 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
12 Oct 30.2 °C 17 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 65
13 Oct 30.7 °C 17 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 60
14 Oct 31.0 °C 16 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 57
15 Oct 31.2 °C 15 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
16 Oct 31.6 °C 18 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
17 Oct 31.1 °C 21 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
18 Oct 31.9 °C 20 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
19 Oct 31.3 °C 20 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 56
20 Oct after 30.2 °C 22 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 55
21 Oct after 30.7 °C 24 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
22 Oct after 32.0 °C 24 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
23 Oct after 31.7 °C 23 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
24 Oct after 33.5 °C 19 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
25 Oct after 32.7 °C 22 % 37 km/h 0.2 mm Extreme 56
26 Oct after 33.6 °C 19 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
27 Oct after 31.8 °C 24 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
28 Oct after 32.5 °C 20 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
29 Oct after 32.6 °C 19 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 49.8, a minimum humidity of 19% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 43.

FWI at the start 49.8
Minimum humidity 19 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Luwingu fire, September 2017
17,120 ha 18 days FWI 49.4 Min. humidity 19 % 79 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

13 days
median duration
3,997 ha
median area
7 %
went past 10,000 ha
3.9 mm
rain at the end (median; 10 of 43 had it)

It burned an area similar to its twins (4,784 ha against a median of 3,997 ha) and lasted 19 days, against 13 days.

In 33 of 43, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.9 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
50km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 19 Oct, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 10 of 43, with a median of 3.9 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 24 Sept 2022
After · 26 Oct 2022

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 17 October 2022 the air beside the fire reached 81 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 56: 3.7 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak81 µg/m³
Days over the guideline24 days
PM10116 µg/m³
Optical depth1.95
29 Sept4 Oct9 Oct14 Oct19 Oct
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 201Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Lunte fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 1 October 2022 to 19 October 2022 (19 days). The perimeter dates it from 7 October 2022 to 13 October 2022.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 4,784 hectares (47.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Kasama (4,677 ha, 0.4 %); Lunte (126 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 31.9 °C, humidity dropped to 13 % and gusts hit 50 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 73, class Very extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 43. Their median duration was 13 days and their median area 3,997 ha; 7 % went past 10,000 ha. In 33 of 43, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.9 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 3 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Name: Kasama → Lunte.
  2. Last day with fire: 13 October 2022 → 19 October 2022.
  3. Start date: 7 October 2022 → 1 October 2022.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 7 October 2022 to 13 October 2022. 201 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.