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MZ · Mozambique · –

Lugela fire, 9 September 2023 Lugela

Out · last detection 1 Oct 2023, 10:41 UTC

The fire started on 9 September 2023 in Lugela, Mozambique, and satellites saw it burning for 23 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 9,063 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 115th largest in Zambézia since 2016 (of 564 with a page). Number 21 in Mozambique in 2023, of 128.

Burnt area
9,063ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
23days
9 Sept 2023 – 1 Oct 2023
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
9 Sept
2023
Heat detections
468
in a single hotspot: 127 MW
Danger at start
27
High · FWI index
Average daily power
201MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 9 Sept1 Oct
1 Oct 2023

How it evolved, day by day

9 Sept 2023 · 36 MW · 5 10 Sept 2023 · 19 MW · 5 11 Sept 2023 · 243 MW · 20 12 Sept 2023 · 146 MW · 25 15 Sept 2023 · 19 MW · 2 16 Sept 2023 · 456 MW · 44 17 Sept 2023 · 472 MW · 101 18 Sept 2023 · 1,088 MW · 79 19 Sept 2023 · 369 MW · 30 20 Sept 2023 · 290 MW · 26 21 Sept 2023 · 117 MW · 17 22 Sept 2023 · 22 MW · 5 23 Sept 2023 · 248 MW · 30 24 Sept 2023 · 209 MW · 10 25 Sept 2023 · 51 MW · 4 26 Sept 2023 · 54 MW · 19 27 Sept 2023 · 229 MW · 16 28 Sept 2023 · 36 MW · 8 29 Sept 2023 · 57 MW · 13 30 Sept 2023 · 50 MW · 8 1 Oct 2023 · 2 MW · 1
9 Sept 18 Sept 26 Sept 1 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

39°high
45km/h · peak gust
16%lowest humidity

It had gone 10 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.3 mm on 2 Oct.

This area had burned before

93% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 2,846 ha in 2016, 2,823 ha in 2017, 5,809 ha in 2018, 2,276 ha in 2019, 3,158 ha in 2020, 3,886 ha in 2021, 5,838 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 8,417 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 5.7% of the area of London (91 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Lugela where it started
    9,123 ha reached on 9 Sept
    1.5 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area2.7 ha
Residents≈ 350

Inside the perimeter there were about 2.7 hectares of built-up land and about 350 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
9 Sept 30.8 °C 34 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
10 Sept 33.5 °C 28 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 25
11 Sept 34.2 °C 29 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
12 Sept 36.0 °C 25 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
13 Sept 29.1 °C 57 % 42 km/h 3.2 mm Low 6
14 Sept 28.6 °C 46 % 28 km/h 2.0 mm Low 6
15 Sept 31.7 °C 34 % 21 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 17
16 Sept 36.1 °C 23 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
17 Sept 37.6 °C 20 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
18 Sept 34.1 °C 22 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
19 Sept 31.5 °C 35 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
20 Sept 34.6 °C 26 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
21 Sept 35.1 °C 26 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
22 Sept 35.1 °C 24 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
23 Sept 36.0 °C 21 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
24 Sept 36.0 °C 25 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
25 Sept 35.7 °C 25 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
26 Sept 36.3 °C 23 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
27 Sept 34.9 °C 29 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
28 Sept 35.8 °C 25 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
29 Sept 35.1 °C 27 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
30 Sept 36.7 °C 20 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
1 Oct 39.4 °C 16 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
2 Oct after 32.9 °C 37 % 43 km/h 1.3 mm High 27

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 26.7, a minimum humidity of 34% and 10 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 51.

FWI at the start 26.7
Minimum humidity 34 %
Days without rain 10
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Namarrói fire, October 2017
4,515 ha 14 days FWI 27.2 Min. humidity 34 % 72 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.3 mm on 22 Oct.

What happened to them

16 days
median duration
4,491 ha
median area
22 %
went past 10,000 ha
3.9 mm
rain at the end (median; 37 of 51 had it)

It was 2.0 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 23 days, against 16 days.

Only 12 of its 51 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 14 of 51, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.9 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.3 mmfirst rain
2 Octthe day after it ended
45km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 1 Oct, and on 2 Oct 1.3 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 37 of 51, with a median of 3.9 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 2 Sept 2023
After · 8 Oct 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 18 September 2023 the air beside the fire reached 43 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 23: 1.5 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak43 µg/m³
Days over the guideline7 days
PM1062 µg/m³
Optical depth0.91
14 Sept18 Sept22 Sept26 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 468Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Mozambique

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Lugela fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 9 September 2023 to 1 October 2023 (23 days). The perimeter dates it from 16 September 2023 to 26 September 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 9,063 hectares (90.6 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Lugela (9,123 ha, 1.5 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 39.4 °C, humidity dropped to 16 % and gusts hit 45 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 46, class Very high.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Mozambique (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 51. Their median duration was 16 days and their median area 4,491 ha; 22 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 12 of its 51 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 14 of 51, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 3.9 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 2 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 26 September 2023 → 1 October 2023.
  2. Start date: 16 September 2023 → 9 September 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 16 September 2023 to 26 September 2023. 468 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.