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KZ · Kazakhstan · –

Karatobinskiy fire, June 2020 Қаратөбе ауданы · Karatobinskiy

Out · last detection 16 Jun 2020, 09:54 UTC

The fire started on 11 June 2020 in Karatobinskiy, Kazakhstan, and satellites saw it burning for 5 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 8,830 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 11th largest in West Kazakhstan Region since 2016 (of 53 with a page). Number 6 in Kazakhstan in 2020, of 60.

Burnt area
8,830ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
5days
11 Jun 2020 – 15 Jun 2020
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
11 Jun
2020
Heat detections
326
in a single hotspot: 140 MW
Danger at start
47
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
911MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 11 Jun15 Jun
16 Jun 2020

How it evolved, day by day

11 Jun 2020 · 690 MW · 112 12 Jun 2020 · 2,288 MW · 112 13 Jun 2020 · 8 MW · 1 15 Jun 2020 · 1,506 MW · 97 16 Jun 2020 · 63 MW · 4
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

37°high
56km/h · peak gust
10%lowest humidity

It had gone one day without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 5.6% of the area of London (88 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Karatobinskiy Қаратөбе ауданы where it started
    8,844 ha reached on 11 Jun
    0.9 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with Very dry air: 18 % of the area in Kazakhstan

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
11 Jun 36.9 °C 10 % 31 km/h 0.3 mm Very high 47
12 Jun 35.0 °C 15 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
13 Jun 32.3 °C 28 % 38 km/h 0.2 mm Very high 43
14 Jun 29.6 °C 26 % 56 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
15 Jun 26.9 °C 17 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
16 Jun after 30.0 °C 18 % 21 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
17 Jun after 31.9 °C 18 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
18 Jun after 31.9 °C 25 % 39 km/h 0.1 mm Extreme 51
19 Jun after 31.1 °C 17 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
20 Jun after 33.6 °C 10 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 62
21 Jun after 35.4 °C 14 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 63
22 Jun after 27.3 °C 15 % 47 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
23 Jun after 28.2 °C 16 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
24 Jun after 27.5 °C 21 % 39 km/h 0.6 mm Very high 40
25 Jun after 23.3 °C 40 % 46 km/h 0.3 mm Very high 38

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 47.4, a minimum humidity of 10% and 1 day without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 28.

FWI at the start 47.4
Minimum humidity 10 %
Days without rain 1
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Karatobinskiy fire, July 2020
3,083 ha 2 days FWI 45.3 Min. humidity 11 % 15 km away, in 2020

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.0 mm on 17 Jul.

What happened to them

2 days
median duration
5,300 ha
median area
7 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.6 mm
rain at the end (median; 16 of 28 had it)

It was 1.7 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 5 days, against 2 days.

Only 3 of its 28 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 12 of 28, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.6 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
56km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Jun, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 16 of 28, with a median of 1.6 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 4 Jun 2020
After · 22 Jun 2020

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 326Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Kazakhstan

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Karatobinskiy fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 11 June 2020 and 15 June 2020: 5 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 8,830 hectares (88.3 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Karatobinskiy (8,844 ha, 0.9 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 36.9 °C, humidity dropped to 10 % and gusts hit 56 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 58, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Kazakhstan (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 28. Their median duration was 2 days and their median area 5,300 ha; 7 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 3 of its 28 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 12 of 28, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.6 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 326 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.