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Gorny Ulus fire, 27 July 2021 Gorny Ulus, Vilyuysky Ulus

Out · last detection 14 Aug 2021, 17:51 UTC

The fire started on 27 July 2021 in Gorny Ulus, Russia, and satellites saw it burning for 20 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 92,210 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 30th largest in Sakha Republic since 2016 (of 1347 with a page). Number 17 in Russia in 2021, of 581.

Compare with…

Suggestions: Gorny Ulus · 2018Gorny Ulus · 2017

Burnt area
92,210ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
20days
27 Jul 2021 – 15 Aug 2021
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
27 Jul
2021
Heat detections
13,300
in a single hotspot: 904 MW
Danger at start
30
High · FWI index
Average daily power
8.9GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 27 Jul15 Aug
14 Aug 2021

How it evolved, day by day

27 Jul 2021 · 468 MW · 130 28 Jul 2021 · 319 MW · 80 29 Jul 2021 · 541 MW · 90 30 Jul 2021 · 6,050 MW · 277 31 Jul 2021 · 3,683 MW · 370 1 Aug 2021 · 698 MW · 193 2 Aug 2021 · 36,153 MW · 1286 3 Aug 2021 · 703 MW · 64 4 Aug 2021 · 353 MW · 105 5 Aug 2021 · 4,801 MW · 457 6 Aug 2021 · 7,093 MW · 589 7 Aug 2021 · 35,859 MW · 2420 8 Aug 2021 · 23,918 MW · 2463 9 Aug 2021 · 31,003 MW · 2734 10 Aug 2021 · 9,541 MW · 664 11 Aug 2021 · 66 MW · 11 12 Aug 2021 · 3,139 MW · 631 13 Aug 2021 · 1,588 MW · 314 14 Aug 2021 · 2,862 MW · 422
27 Jul 2 Aug 8 Aug 12 Aug

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

29°high
58km/h · peak gust
25%lowest humidity

It had gone 5 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.8 mm on 16 Aug.

This area had burned before

1% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 89 ha in 2018, 389 ha in 2020.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 58% of the area of London (922 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Gorny Ulus where it started
    92,928 ha reached on 27 Jul
    2.0 %
  2. 123 ha reached on 7 Aug
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
27 Jul 27.3 °C 34 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
28 Jul 25.1 °C 35 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
29 Jul 22.5 °C 34 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
30 Jul 24.9 °C 25 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
31 Jul 26.5 °C 30 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
1 Aug 27.2 °C 34 % 17 km/h 0.0 mm High 22
2 Aug 27.6 °C 27 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
3 Aug 25.3 °C 38 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
4 Aug 25.9 °C 39 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 31
5 Aug 26.5 °C 34 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
6 Aug 24.1 °C 27 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 37
7 Aug 25.7 °C 31 % 58 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
8 Aug 26.2 °C 38 % 49 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
9 Aug 28.4 °C 37 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
10 Aug 29.0 °C 35 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
11 Aug 25.7 °C 54 % 31 km/h 1.0 mm Moderate 12
12 Aug 24.5 °C 49 % 22 km/h 1.0 mm Low 9
13 Aug 24.6 °C 49 % 13 km/h 0.0 mm Low 11
14 Aug 26.4 °C 47 % 21 km/h 1.6 mm Low 8
15 Aug 25.3 °C 59 % 36 km/h 1.9 mm Low 11
16 Aug after 22.1 °C 70 % 42 km/h 1.8 mm Very low 4

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 30.0, a minimum humidity of 34% and 5 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 24.

FWI at the start 30.0
Minimum humidity 34 %
Days without rain 5
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Gorny Ulus fire, July 2018
27,357 ha 13 days FWI 29.3 Min. humidity 32 % 40 km away, in 2018

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 3.8 mm on 22 Jul.

What happened to them

14 days
median duration
7,408 ha
median area
46 %
went past 10,000 ha
5.4 mm
rain at the end (median; 24 of 24 had it)

It was 12.4 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 20 days, against 14 days.

None of its 24 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 5.4 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.8 mmfirst rain
16 Augthe day after it ended
58km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Aug, and on 16 Aug 1.8 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 24 of 24, with a median of 5.4 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 20 Jul 2021
After · 22 Aug 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 13,300Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Gorny Ulus fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 27 July 2021 and 15 August 2021: 20 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 92,210 hectares (922.1 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Gorny Ulus (92,928 ha, 2.0 %); Vilyuysky Ulus (123 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 29.0 °C, humidity dropped to 25 % and gusts hit 58 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 50, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Russia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 24. Their median duration was 14 days and their median area 7,408 ha; 46 % went past 10,000 ha. None of its 24 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 5.4 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 13,300 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.