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Gorny Ulus fire, 12 July 2021 Gorny Ulus

Out · last detection 15 Aug 2021, 05:26 UTC

The fire started on 12 July 2021 in Gorny Ulus, Russia, and satellites saw it burning for 35 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 26,161 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 167th largest in Sakha Republic since 2016 (of 1347 with a page). Number 70 in Russia in 2021, of 581.

Burnt area
26,161ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
35days
12 Jul 2021 – 15 Aug 2021
Municipalities hit
1
districts
Started on
12 Jul
2021
Heat detections
3,931
in a single hotspot: 209 MW
Danger at start
18
Moderate · FWI index
Average daily power
1.1GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 12 Jul15 Aug
15 Aug 2021

How it evolved, day by day

12 Jul 2021 · 118 MW · 22 13 Jul 2021 · 196 MW · 28 14 Jul 2021 · 966 MW · 37 15 Jul 2021 · 2 MW · 1 16 Jul 2021 · 2,502 MW · 145 17 Jul 2021 · 708 MW · 65 18 Jul 2021 · 24 MW · 4 19 Jul 2021 · 41 MW · 4 20 Jul 2021 · 183 MW · 20 22 Jul 2021 · 439 MW · 69 23 Jul 2021 · 5 MW · 1 25 Jul 2021 · 7 MW · 3 26 Jul 2021 · 267 MW · 60 27 Jul 2021 · 1,937 MW · 240 28 Jul 2021 · 2,425 MW · 314 29 Jul 2021 · 1,510 MW · 200 30 Jul 2021 · 1,067 MW · 130 31 Jul 2021 · 444 MW · 92 1 Aug 2021 · 49 MW · 19 2 Aug 2021 · 76 MW · 44 4 Aug 2021 · 2 MW · 1 5 Aug 2021 · 707 MW · 106 6 Aug 2021 · 469 MW · 146 7 Aug 2021 · 1,753 MW · 95 8 Aug 2021 · 2,005 MW · 396 9 Aug 2021 · 8,974 MW · 761 10 Aug 2021 · 2,311 MW · 236 11 Aug 2021 · 225 MW · 30 12 Aug 2021 · 832 MW · 186 13 Aug 2021 · 199 MW · 102 14 Aug 2021 · 1,783 MW · 257 15 Aug 2021 · 1,610 MW · 117
12 Jul 19 Jul 28 Jul 9 Aug

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

34°high
52km/h · peak gust
28%lowest humidity

It had gone 2 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 9.1 mm on 16 Aug.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 17% of the area of London (262 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Gorny Ulus where it started
    26,011 ha reached on 12 Jul
    0.6 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
7 Jul 31.6 °C 30 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 18
8 Jul 33.5 °C 31 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
9 Jul 25.5 °C 40 % 43 km/h 0.4 mm Moderate 21
10 Jul 17.0 °C 61 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 12
11 Jul 19.0 °C 43 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 13
12 Jul 24.3 °C 38 % 19 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 14
13 Jul 25.3 °C 39 % 20 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 15
14 Jul 29.3 °C 33 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
15 Jul 23.3 °C 58 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 16
16 Jul 21.8 °C 30 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
17 Jul 25.7 °C 38 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
18 Jul 26.9 °C 46 % 22 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
19 Jul 28.9 °C 50 % 26 km/h 0.1 mm Moderate 20
20 Jul 23.6 °C 47 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 19
21 Jul 21.2 °C 61 % 26 km/h 3.6 mm Very low 3
22 Jul 26.2 °C 43 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm Low 9
23 Jul 25.5 °C 48 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 13
24 Jul 24.7 °C 45 % 38 km/h 0.9 mm Moderate 13
25 Jul 25.4 °C 40 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 19
26 Jul 30.5 °C 36 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 22
27 Jul 28.1 °C 48 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 22
28 Jul 24.8 °C 46 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
29 Jul 22.5 °C 35 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
30 Jul 24.2 °C 28 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
31 Jul 25.0 °C 31 % 18 km/h 0.0 mm High 23
1 Aug 26.0 °C 37 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 24
2 Aug 25.6 °C 35 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm High 29
3 Aug 21.4 °C 61 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 18
4 Aug 23.0 °C 55 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 21
5 Aug 26.0 °C 35 % 31 km/h 0.0 mm High 22
6 Aug 23.0 °C 31 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 26
7 Aug 24.6 °C 44 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
8 Aug 25.1 °C 49 % 48 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
9 Aug 28.0 °C 39 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm High 25
10 Aug 27.7 °C 44 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 23
11 Aug 24.8 °C 57 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 19
12 Aug 25.5 °C 42 % 19 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 18
13 Aug 26.1 °C 56 % 25 km/h 0.9 mm Moderate 12
14 Aug 27.8 °C 46 % 18 km/h 1.1 mm Moderate 12
15 Aug 26.3 °C 48 % 34 km/h 0.8 mm Moderate 14
16 Aug after 24.1 °C 65 % 41 km/h 9.1 mm Very low 1

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 17.5, a minimum humidity of 38% and 2 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 15.

FWI at the start 17.5
Minimum humidity 38 %
Days without rain 2
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Gorny Ulus fire, July 2017
3,363 ha 16 days FWI 15.9 Min. humidity 39 % 35 km away, in 2017

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 3.8 mm on 16 Aug.

What happened to them

13 days
median duration
5,272 ha
median area
27 %
went past 10,000 ha
5.0 mm
rain at the end (median; 15 of 15 had it)

It was 5.0 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 35 days, against 13 days.

Only 1 of its 15 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 5.0 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

9.1 mmfirst rain
16 Augthe day after it ended
52km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 15 Aug, and on 16 Aug 9.1 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 15 of 15, with a median of 5.0 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 5 Jul 2021
After · 22 Aug 2021

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

Detections table · 3,931Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Russia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Gorny Ulus fire last?
GWIS (Copernicus) dates it between 12 July 2021 and 15 August 2021: 35 days between the first and last heat detection of the perimeter.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 26,161 hectares (261.6 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Gorny Ulus (26,011 ha, 0.6 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 33.5 °C, humidity dropped to 28 % and gusts hit 52 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 30, class High.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Russia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 15. Their median duration was 13 days and their median area 5,272 ha; 27 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 1 of its 15 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. All of them had rain in the ten days after the end: the first rainy day brought a median of 5.0 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates from the perimeter: the VIIRS detections inside it did not change them. 3,931 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.