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ZM · Zambia · –

Chipili fire, 7 September 2022 Lupososhi, Chipili

Out · last detection 27 Sept 2022, 23:48 UTC

The fire started on 7 September 2022 in Chipili, Zambia, and satellites saw it burning for 20 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 15,351 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

It is the 74th largest in Luapula since 2016 (of 449 with a page). Number 14 in Zambia in 2022, of 235.

Burnt area
15,351ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
20days
7 Sept 2022 – 26 Sept 2022
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
7 Sept
2022
Heat detections
523
in a single hotspot: 206 MW
Danger at start
53
Extreme · FWI index
Average daily power
472MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 7 Sept26 Sept
27 Sept 2022

How it evolved, day by day

8 Sept 2022 · 13 MW · 1 11 Sept 2022 · 11 MW · 1 12 Sept 2022 · 12 MW · 2 13 Sept 2022 · 74 MW · 15 14 Sept 2022 · 2,136 MW · 110 15 Sept 2022 · 2,127 MW · 115 16 Sept 2022 · 1,439 MW · 91 17 Sept 2022 · 227 MW · 26 18 Sept 2022 · 111 MW · 18 19 Sept 2022 · 127 MW · 8 20 Sept 2022 · 206 MW · 14 21 Sept 2022 · 89 MW · 5 22 Sept 2022 · 149 MW · 16 23 Sept 2022 · 591 MW · 40 24 Sept 2022 · 720 MW · 37 25 Sept 2022 · 336 MW · 17 26 Sept 2022 · 6 MW · 1 27 Sept 2022 · 132 MW · 6
8 Sept 14 Sept 18 Sept 22 Sept 26 Sept

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

33°high
51km/h · peak gust
15%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

99% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 9,096 ha in 2016, 8,997 ha in 2017, 7,749 ha in 2018, 11,326 ha in 2019, 5,297 ha in 2020, 10,627 ha in 2021. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 15,244 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 9.7% of the area of London (154 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. 15,331 ha
    3.7 %
  2. Chipili where it started
    104 ha
    0.0 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 91 % of the area in Zambia

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
7 Sept 28.4 °C 23 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 53
8 Sept 27.1 °C 26 % 45 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
9 Sept 27.7 °C 28 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
10 Sept 29.1 °C 23 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
11 Sept 29.6 °C 27 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
12 Sept 30.8 °C 30 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
13 Sept 29.9 °C 26 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
14 Sept 28.3 °C 29 % 51 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
15 Sept 28.9 °C 27 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 45
16 Sept 29.3 °C 27 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
17 Sept 30.4 °C 27 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 38
18 Sept 31.0 °C 25 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
19 Sept 31.4 °C 30 % 23 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
20 Sept 33.2 °C 19 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
21 Sept 33.2 °C 19 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
22 Sept 31.7 °C 22 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
23 Sept 31.5 °C 20 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
24 Sept 31.1 °C 15 % 42 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 59
25 Sept 31.3 °C 22 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 50
26 Sept 31.4 °C 23 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
27 Sept after 32.2 °C 24 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
28 Sept after 30.0 °C 28 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 49
29 Sept after 30.0 °C 24 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
30 Sept after 30.5 °C 20 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
1 Oct after 31.7 °C 19 % 38 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
2 Oct after 32.0 °C 21 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 52
3 Oct after 31.7 °C 18 % 39 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 50
4 Oct after 31.9 °C 20 % 32 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 48
5 Oct after 32.9 °C 17 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
6 Oct after 32.5 °C 16 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 53.4, a minimum humidity of 23% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 32.

FWI at the start 53.4
Minimum humidity 23 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Mansa fire, August 2018
5,544 ha 20 days FWI 53.6 Min. humidity 23 % 124 km away, in 2018

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 1.8 mm on 9 Sept.

What happened to them

14 days
median duration
4,716 ha
median area
22 %
went past 10,000 ha
5.5 mm
rain at the end (median; 11 of 32 had it)

It was 3.3 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 20 days, against 14 days.

Only 5 of its 32 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 21 of 32, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 5.5 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
51km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 26 Sept, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 11 of 32, with a median of 5.5 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 31 Aug 2022
After · 3 Oct 2022

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 17 September 2022 the air beside the fire reached 134 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 60: 4.0 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak134 µg/m³
Days over the guideline24 days
PM10192 µg/m³
Optical depth2.05
5 Sept10 Sept15 Sept20 Sept25 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 523Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in Zambia

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Chipili fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 7 September 2022 to 26 September 2022 (20 days). The perimeter dates it from 13 September 2022 to 19 September 2022.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 15,351 hectares (153.5 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire entered 2 municipalities: Lupososhi (15,331 ha, 3.7 %); Chipili (104 ha, 0.0 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 33.2 °C, humidity dropped to 15 % and gusts hit 51 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 59, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Zambia (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 32. Their median duration was 14 days and their median area 4,716 ha; 22 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 5 of its 32 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 21 of 32, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 5.5 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 3 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Name: Lupososhi → Chipili.
  2. Last day with fire: 19 September 2022 → 26 September 2022.
  3. Start date: 13 September 2022 → 7 September 2022.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

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How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 13 September 2022 to 19 September 2022. 523 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.